Tesla stock forecast and price prediction
“Verified by an expert” means that this article has been thoroughly reviewed and evaluated for accuracy.
“Verified by an expert” means that this article has been thoroughly reviewed and evaluated for accuracy.
BLUEPRINT
Updated 11:25 a.m. UTC July 1, 2024
Editorial Note: Blueprint may earn a commission from affiliate partner links featured here on our site. This commission does not influence our editors' opinions or evaluations. Please view our full advertiser disclosure policy.
Tesla
Key points
- Tesla is a U.S. electric vehicle sales leader, far outpacing the competition.
- Carmakers are heightening competition by introducing new EV models.
- TSLA has had high returns in the past but is struggling in 2024.
Tesla is the pioneer of the modern electric vehicle movement in the U.S. In the past decade, its stock has risen alongside the company. But Tesla hasn’t fared as well recently, with decreased vehicle deliveries and increasing competition. Still, the automaker could be in for a better second half of the year.
Acorns
Tesla stock price
TSLA’s price has increased dramatically in the past five years. It climbed from under $15 in 2019 to around $185 in mid-2024. Production sales drove much of that growth.
Tesla delivered over 245,000 vehicles in 2018, compared to 1.81 million in 2023. Its revenue jumped from $21.5 billion in 2018 to $96.8 billion in 2023.
The company derives most of its revenue from automotive sales. But it brought in $6 billion from energy generation and storage in 2023. It also saw $8 billion from services and other revenue that year.
Tesla made its first full-year profit in 2020, which helped its stock price. Strong earnings, positive cash flow and profit have continued to boost investor confidence.
How has the Tesla stock price performed?
TSLA has performed well since its initial public offering in 2010, at $17 per share. Shares have grown from $1.27 to around $185 on a split-adjusted basis.
Much of TSLA’s strong performance began in 2020. This was when the company first turned a full-year profit and joined the S&P 500. TSLA was by far the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 in 2020.
TSLA dropped from a high of above $400 in November 2021 to less than $115 in January 2023. This happened amid Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover, interest rate hikes and vehicle production issues. After the tech stock sell-off of 2022, Tesla experienced a resurgence. TSLA reached above $280 by July 2023. Since then, its performance has been lackluster. But it remains well above its January 2023 price.
Tesla earnings
Tesla’s earnings have been mixed in recent quarters. In early 2024, the company missed earnings and revenue projections, a trend from the past three quarters. Operating margin in 2023 was 9.2%, down from 16.8% in 2022. Free cash flow decreased from $7.6 billion in 2022 to $4.4 billion in 2023.
Revenue was up 19% year over year in 2023. While the operating margin decreased in 2023, it was positive in early 2024. Tesla has also turned a profit every year since 2020.
In its earnings report, Tesla noted that its energy storage deployments more than doubled in 2023 compared to 2022. The company also decreased the cost of goods sold per vehicle.
Tesla at a glance
Engineers Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning founded Tesla in 2003. Musk joined as chairman when he invested $30 million in 2004. He took over as CEO in 2008. That year, Tesla began production of its first model, the Roadster.
The company went public in 2010. Two years later, it began full production of its first mainstream consumer EV, the Model S. In 2012, Tesla also began building charge stations called Superchargers. Three years later, it released a Model X crossover vehicle. In 2016, the company opened the first of a series of Gigafactories. These large production facilities helped Tesla aggressively scale its production. It also acquired solar panel company SolarCity in 2016 to expand its clean energy business.
In 2017, Tesla began production of its Model 3. The four-door sedan was intended as an affordable EV for the mass market. In some markets, the Model 3 surpassed the Nissan Leaf as the best-selling EV.
In 2020, the company introduced the Model Y, a midsize crossover SUV. Tesla said the Model Y became the best-selling vehicle in the world in 2023. It sold 1.2 million Model Ys, edging out 1.07 million sales of Toyota’s RAV4.
Tesla controversies
Tesla has faced several controversies. These include vehicle quality issues, labor disputes and dubious behavior from Musk.
In 2017, the company recalled Model S and Model X vehicles over a potentially faulty parking brake. Tesla said it didn’t believe the issue had caused any accidents or injuries.
Unfortunately, the same can’t be said for drivers using Tesla’s Autopilot. In 2016, a Model S driver died in a crash while Autopilot was engaged. Since then, additional fatal crashes have occurred while drivers were using self-driving mode.
Concerns have also been raised about Tesla factory conditions. The company has been criticized for injuries that allegedly occurred due to its aggressive production goals. It has also been accused of attempting to prevent factory workers from unionizing.
Tesla IPO
Tesla went public on June 29, 2010, at $17 per share. It offered 13.3 million shares at this price, valuing the company at $226.1 million.
TSLA gained more than 40% on its first trading day. It closed at $23.89, not adjusted for future stock splits.
The stock continued to increase in its first year, reaching a split-adjusted $2 in November 2010. But it closed out 2010 at under $2. The price remained relatively flat for two years. It reached $3 in 2013 and continued trending upward.
Tesla stock splits
Since its IPO, TSLA has split twice: 5-for-1 in 2020 and 3-for-1 in 2022. This means a single share purchased before the 2020 split is worth 15 shares today.
TSLA has increased dramatically since its IPO. But as of mid-2024, the stock is trading lower than its last post-split price. The company has not announced plans for additional splits.
| DATE OF SPLIT | TYPE OF SPLIT |
|---|---|
Aug. 28, 2020
| 5-for-1
|
Aug. 24, 2022
| 3-for-1
|
Opportunities and obstacles facing Tesla
The biggest opportunity for Tesla is the growing demand for EVs and related technologies. The International Energy Agency projects EV sales in the U.S. will increase by 20% in 2024 compared to 2023. By 2030, there could be as many EVs as internal combustion engine vehicles.
As the leading EV maker, Tesla stands to benefit from this trend. This is especially true in the U.S., where the company doesn’t compete with Chinese EV maker BYD. Musk has teased more new models after deliveries of the Cybertruck began in November 2023.
But the company’s market share is expected to decline as competitors bring more EV models to market. Tesla has failed to deliver on Musk’s promise of a Level 5 autonomous vehicle system. Research firm Guidehouse Insights ranked Tesla’s Full Self-Driving Level 2 system at the bottom of 16 companies.
Strengths
- Tesla is the leading electric vehicle brand in the U.S. market.
- Advanced battery design, autonomous driving, and energy generation and storage technologies provide a competitive advantage.
- Tesla has consistently grown revenue and improved its profit margins.
Weaknesses
- Autonomous vehicle technology has yet to meet expectations and has underperformed competitors.
- Tesla has a high forward price-to-earnings ratio.
- Increasing competition may hurt Tesla’s market share in the U.S. and China.
Nasdaq: Tesla comparison
Tesla is one of the top stocks in the Nasdaq composite index. As of March 28, 2024, its weight was 2.11%.
The table below orders the 10 stocks with the greatest weighting in the Nasdaq by market cap. It’s reordered daily at market close.
Tesla stock forecast 2024
Analysts expect lower earnings for Tesla in 2024, projecting an earnings per share of $2.55. That’s down from $4.30 in 2023. Revenue is expected to rise to $98.2 billion.
Tesla delivered 386,810 cars in the first quarter of 2024. That’s down 8.5% year over year. But Morningstar strategist Seth Goldstein said Tesla sales could rebound.
“Deliveries declined in the first quarter, but we think recent price cuts, the refreshed Model 3, and improved production at the Austin and Berlin factories should generate better sales through the rest of 2024,” Goldstein wrote.
Of 53 analysts, 17 recommend buying TSLA, 20 recommend holding and eight recommend selling. Six analysts rate the stock as “overweight,” while two rate it as “underweight.” The average target price is $182.96.
Tesla stock forecast 2025
Projected earnings in 2025 are $3.39 per share, a slight increase over the 2024 forecast. The revenue forecast for 2025 is $115.7 billion, a 17.8% increase from the 2024 projection.
Making long-term predictions for individual stock prices is very difficult. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Whether a stock has done well or fared poorly, the tide can shift overnight.
What can we expect in the coming years?
The biggest question for the company in the coming years is what we’ll see from competitors. Some top EV lists show Tesla models ranking no higher than fourth or fifth place. But loyalty remains strong, and the Supercharger network is an advantage for Tesla vehicles. How well the company fends off competition will go a long way in determining how its stock performs.
Other developments to watch are in Tesla’s energy generation and storage segments and related services. The company more than doubled its energy storage deployments in 2023.
Tesla also generates revenue from services such as Full Self-Driving. The subscription costs $99 per month and can create steady revenue for the company.
Frequently asked questions (FAQs)
The average target price among the Wall Street analysts covering TSLA is $182.96. Of the 53 analysts surveyed, 17 give the stock a “buy” rating.
At the time of this writing, TSLA hit an all-time intraday high of $414.50 on Nov. 4, 2021.
Tesla has split its stock twice: 5-for-1 on Aug. 28, 2020, and 3-for-1 on Aug. 24, 2022.
Tesla stock does not pay dividends. The company says it intends to retain its earnings to finance future growth.
Blueprint is an independent publisher and comparison service, not an investment advisor. The information provided is for educational purposes only and we encourage you to seek personalized advice from qualified professionals regarding specific financial decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Blueprint has an advertiser disclosure policy. The opinions, analyses, reviews or recommendations expressed in this article are those of the Blueprint editorial staff alone. Blueprint adheres to strict editorial integrity standards. The information is accurate as of the publish date, but always check the provider’s website for the most current information.
