Movie Forum: The Early Oscar Buzz Edition

• 'Argo' appears to be the early favorite
• Strong performances by Daniel Day-Lewis, Alan Arkin and Joaquin Phoenix should be recognized
• There has been a trend to recognize smaller films, but look for a big picture to win out this year

Every Wednesday, the Movie Forum convenes to discuss the latest news from the film world and answer questions submitted by you, the reader.

This week critic Claudia Puig and reporter Susan Wloszczyna discussed the early Oscar buzz. Who are the contenders? Any early favorites? What about dark horse candidates?

Enjoy the chat and submit your questions for next week below.

John Elliot: Welcome to the inaugural USA TODAY Movie Forum! I'm John Elliot, online producer for USA TODAY Movies and I will serve as your moderator. Joining me today is USA TODAY's film critic Claudia Puig and movie reporter Susan Wloszczyna.

How this works - Each week we solicit questions, online, from our readers on a certain movie topic. This week? Early Oscar Buzz!

Susan and Claudia will start by sharing their thoughts on this years early Oscar buzz and related news, then we will move on to reader submitted questions. Please note: You CAN submit questions, live, during the Forum, and we will do our best, time permitting, to answer them.

SO…let's get the Forum started! And Susan, let's start with you:

With this week's opening of Cloud Atlas and with Argo doing well in its second week, where do they stand for best pic? And how will Lincoln factor in?

Susan Wloszczyna: Hi all. Thanks for joining us.

So the long-awaited Cloud Atlas arrives this Friday. Both Claudia and I have seen it. It gets props for ambition and for a while it is fascinating to see where each actor pops up in the six different stories that intertwine into a whole. But save for the segment in futuristic Korea and one that concerns a young musician in 1836 Britain, it is hard to get fully into each of the stories.

So it is a grand experiment, not so grand film. I say technical Oscars maybe, makeup definitely. But not much more.

Claudia Puig: Yes, hello and welcome to our readers!

I think Argo is a shoo-in, but Cloud Atlas is a longer shot. It's dense and meandering and some Academy voters will no doubt find it pretentious. But it does have some very respected Oscar winners as stars--Tom Hanks and Halle Berry--and the widely admired Jim Broadbent as a co-star, so Academy voters may throw it a best picture nod. But I tend to agree that it will be a bigger player in technical awards like cinematography, production design and editing.

Argo, on the other hand is a movie that audiences love and so will Academy voters. It has all the ingredients of a best pic nominee: a great story, a wonderful ensemble cast, a stand-out performance from Alan Arkin and excitement, laughs, drama, the works.

As for Lincoln, you can be assured that Daniel Day Lewis will be nominated. The picture probably will as well.

Susan Wloszczyna: As for Argo, right now it is a favorite at a must-read web site Gold Derby in the best pic category. And the fact it is doing well at the box office is a plus as well. Alan Arkin is the likeliest actor to get recognized -- and he deserves. I think his producer should get a spinoff movie or a Larry David like HBO show.

As for Lincoln, it is a step in the right direction after the far too sentimental War Horse, which made the best pic cut last year. Two standout performances: Daniel Day Lewis has unseated Joaquin Phoenix in The Master as the actor to beat. And Tommy Lee Jones is his crotchety best as Thaddeus Stevens, who fought to pass the 13th amendment. This is Spielberg's best film in a while -- so don't count him out as best director either.

Claudia Puig: l definitely agree that Spielberg will be on the short list for best director. And given that this is an election year, Lincoln should resonate all the more. Tommy Lee Jones is one of those actors that pretty much always deserves and Oscar nod, along with Daniel Day Lewis. They show up, they get nominated. And so agreed on Alan Arkin. It would be a crime if he weren't nominated

John Elliot: How about some thoughts on the potential Oscar snubs? What are some performances that deserve to be included in the actors race, but MAY possibly be overlooked?

Claudia Puig:

Some performances that definitely deserve to be included but could be overlooked include Frank Langella in Robot and Frank , which very few people saw, but which was a wonderful portrait of a man battling Alzheimers but who was also once a savvy jewel thief. He was so wonderful in Frost/Nixon and lost that year. He's doing some of his best work in his later years with the also-little seen Starting Out in the Evening of a few years ago and it would be wonderful if he were recognized.

On a real indie note, I also think Mark Duplass has had a wonderful year and would love to see the Academy recognize him for Safety Not Guaranteed (or perhaps supporting actor for Your Sister's Sister).

Susan Wloszczyna: There is a small film that did surprisingly well earlier this year -- Bernie, with Jack Black re-teaming with his School of Rock director Richard Linklater. Those of you who are tired of Black's usual boorish and loud routine might be as blown away as I was by a much more subtle but no less comical performance. Black plays a real life mortician's assistant in a small town who is beloved by one and all for her generosity and kindness. So much so that when he is charged with the murder of a rich lady played by Shirley MacLaine, they refuse to believe his guilt. It is sometimes hard for comic roles to find a way into the race but this is a gem.

Oh and a shoutout for Matthew McConaughey's outrageous performance in Magic Mike, too. Alan Arkin cant pull off a thong like he can.

Claudia Puig: Another wonderful performance that could easily be overlooked is Melanie Lysnkey's in Hello I Must Be Going. She played a woman whose life was upended when her husband blindsided her by asking for a divorce. She is forced to return to her parents home--and she's 35--with a disapproving mother brilliantly played by Blythe Danner, who probably also deserves a supporting actress nomination. Lynskey, who made her debut opposite Kate Winslet in Heavenly Creatures, taps into so many emotions and is also very funny. She carries the movie and it's a wonderful nuanced performance.

John Elliot: Now let's move on to questions submitted by our readers.

Susan let's start with you...

Joni from Nebraska asks:

My question is two-fold

1) Do you think the trend is toward the smaller, more independent films receiving recognition?

2) If so, what makes a smaller independent appealing to the voters?

Susan Wloszczyna:The Artist, The King's Speech and The Hurt Locker -- all best pic winners -- do fall into that category so I think you are onto something, Joni. However, even though films like Beasts of the Southern Wild and Moonlight Kingdom might get in the race this year because of the potential for up to 10 nominees, I have a feeling a bigger pic will triumph.

Argo, Lincoln and Les Miserables all have a good chance. But if you count Silver Linings Playbook as small that definitely could factor in. It was a fave at the Toronto Film Festival and if box office is healthy when it opens next month, it could also be one to beat.

As for what voters like, I think novelty of some sort -- like The Artist. A commercial story that has emotional resonance like The King's Speech. And box office strength, too. I am guessing Beasts of the Southern Wild might be the one to make the cut this year.

Claudia Puig: I think the trend toward smaller, indie films has definitely been receiving recognition, at least Oscar-wise in the past few years. The Artist won best picture last year and while it was promoted heavily by Weinstein Pictures, it was a black and white silent movie that very few people across the country actually saw.

The same was definitely the case for The Hurt Locker a few years earlier and even The King's Speech two years ago. In the year when Hurt Locker went up against Avatar we saw exactly how much power smaller independent films had with Academy members. It really was a David vs. Goliath phenomenon and I think that trend has been established. Now, that doesn't mean that indie films will always win, of course, but I think they stand a better chance now than they have since the days of Fargo back in the late 1990s.

As far as this year, I think at least a few smaller films stand a good question namely the ones mentioned above-Silver Linings Playbook, Moonrise Kingdom and Beasts of the Southern Wild, possibly Sessions--though probably more for acting, particularlyJohn Hawkes and Helen Hunt as best actor and actress nominees respectively.

Also Best Exotic Marigold Hotel stands a good chance for a best pic nominee. I'd love to dig even deeper into the indie playbook and see Safety Not Guaranteed make the cut, but that would be very unlikely. Still, I think it's a good time, at least Oscar nomination wise, for those smaller indies.

As for the second part of Joni's question I agree with Susan about novelty being the key. Smaller independent films have special appeal to voters who are seeing so much predictable, formulaic fare. When something different and authentic comes before them, it's natural for them to want to reward it.

Nigel asks:

Do you fear that "Lincoln" will be come this years "J. Edgar"? Meaning all the makings for a great film: Great actor, director, script, but no follow through?

For Original Screenplay, who's going to win between "The Master" and "Moonrise Kingdom"?

Claudia Puig: I don't know if it will be this year's J. Edgar, because it's a meatier film about a much worthier subject and Daniel Day Lewis and Tommy Lee Jones are likely Oscar nominees, whereas Leonardo DiCaprio wasn't all that convincing as J. Edgar Hoover. Armie Hammer kind of stole the film with his more nuanced part as Clyde Tollson, Hoover's longtime companion. But his make-up kind of overshadowed how good he was in the role. I think Lincoln has the makings for a great film where J. Edgar might never had all that, despite a great director and good actors. I think the subject matter in Lincoln is just infinitely more interesting and again, don't underestimate how presidential politics is top of mind this season.

I should have stated that a bit more clearly and strongly: I see the connection and it's a good question, but I don't think Lincoln will be this year's J. Edgar....for the reasons stated above

Well, there will be more nominees, of course, but if I were king I'd go for Moonrise Kingdom over The Master. And I think Moonrise Kingdom has a better shot to make the final cut of nomineens.

The Master has a good shot too, but I think the screenplay was not the film's strongsuit. It was beautifully shot and superbly acted, but the dialogue was often lacking. The power was mostly in the performances, not so much In P. T. Anderson's script. Having said that, I'm a big Anderson fan, but I was not as much a fan of this film as Magnolia and Boogie Nights. I think the film needed more back story and a sense of motivation for the lead characters that would be a flaw in the screenplay.

Susan Wloszczyna: For one thing, the makeup for Lincoln is far more believable. For another, as a character, Lincoln probably is a much more sympathetic figure and probably has a bigger fan base than J. Edgar. Plus the story is more compelling as it focuses mainly on the passage of the admendment dealing with slave issues. So no J. Edgar worries here. I barely felt its length. Somehow Spielberg makes history come alive in the same way as the John Adams miniseries on HBO. Who knew government in action could be this exciting and compelling.

Best original screenplay -- I think Moonrise and The Master will have some strong competition. Don't forget Zero Dark Thirty, the Bin Laden film; Django Unchained with academy fave Tarantino; and Amour, a devastating foreign film that takes a powerful look at old age that has been drawing raves since Cannes. Right now, I go with The Master.

Eileen from Budd Lake, NJ asks:

My husband and I just went to see ARGO. We loved it. I think Ben Affleck will be the dark horse for directing this Oscar season (he should be nominated!!) With Steven Spielberg's Lincoln and Tom Hooper's Les Miz; Ben will be the long shot. I would love to see him win!! Alan Arkin is still great!! He should get best supporting actor!! What do think Ben Affleck odds are?

Susan Wloszczyna: Eileen, I am with you. Argo is probably not just one of the best movies I have seen this year. It is also one of the most entertaining. And the fact it is a movie about Hollywood -- much like The Artist last year -- might help its chances. It is also highly relevant to today. So for all these reasons I think it is safe to take Ben out of the dark horse category for director. In fact, until i see Les Miz or Zero Dark Thirty, he could just gallop away with the award. The odds are in his favor right now with Spielberg his biggest competition.

Claudia Puig: Affleck is definitely in the running and will likely be nominated, so he's not such a dark horse--at least as it stand now. And since this is Affleck's third film, it's clear that his directorial talent is no fluke. In fact, he just keeps getting better since Gone Baby Gone, The Town and now Argo, which is hugely entertaining, well-acted, well-written and suspenseful--just about all you need for a great film.

Susan and I agree on this: it's definitely one of the year's best. And I would put money on Arkin being among the best supporting actor nominees.

Brad from Atlanta asks:

I think the winners for best picture over the years have always been underwhelming. I hardly felt that "The Artist" and "The King's Speech" were worthy of the top prize. This year it seems like "Argo" is in the lead to win and while it was a good film, it wasn't amazing or anything I haven't really seen before. Do you think there is any chance for a film like "Beasts of the Southern Wild" to win?

Claudia Puig:

Well, Brad, we agree that Argo is at the head of the list, though I don't know if you can say it's the lead to win just yet. There are some other films coming out in the next month or 2 with just as much steam--Silver Linings Playbook, Les Miserables, Zero Dark Thirty, etc.

And I disagree that it wasn't amazing. Argo is a consistently great and entertaining film, though when it comes to artistry Beasts of the Southern Wild is certainly just as worthy of a nomination.

And I generally don't buy the thesis that the best picture winners have been underwhelming. I was a big fan of The Artist, The King's Speech and The Hurt Locker. I think they were extremely worthy. I'd be curious to hear from Brad as to what he would have chosen over those past best pic winners.

Susan Wloszczyna: Brad -- I figure you might be one of those disgruntled that Social Network did not win two years ago. If you are, that is a big club.

But remember one thing about the Oscars. Quality counts, but so does a variety of factors that determine what wins. Especially in the best picture category. Box office, politics, the actors in the cast.

I would be happy myself if Argo wins, but my second choice turns out the way I hope it does, I would be thrilled if Les Miserables would win. No musical has won or even been nominated since Chicago in 2002.

As for Beasts I'd say its chances of winning are slim -- mainly because the public did not respond to it as strongly as critics. However, I fully expect to see that terrific youngster Quvenzhane Wallis to be among the best actresses. If that happens, I think DVD sales of Beasts will go through the roof -- especially if she starts showing up on TV talk shows.

Claudia Puig: Though I will add that good as the best pic choices were, there certainly have been other just as worthy films in the past few years which I would have been happy to see win. Tree of Life last year and The Social Network come to mind. And I agree that many other factors come into play--and sadly, there's always the campaigning of the studios. This year should be a fascinating one on all counts.

**NOTE: We received a response from Brad from Atlanta, post-Forum discussion, which we share with you now**

Brad from Atlanta: I would have chosen Inglorious Basterds for 2009, 127 hours for 2010 (but yes I would have been happy with The Social Network over The King's Speech) and Drive for 2011.

I must be the only one who thought The Artist was extremely overrated. "A silent movie about the end of silent movies" (how original).

So far this year my favorite film is Beasts. It was something different and profound. No other movie this year has made me feel as much as this one did. I think it's a shame that the best picture is based more on momentum and votes than on emotion and creativity.

John Elliot: Well, I think it is time for us to wrap up unfortunately, as Claudia and Susan have screenings to attend and deadlines to meet!

Thank you Claudia and Susan. And a VERY big thank you to all our readers who participated and submitted questions.

Claudia Puig: Thanks to all those who sent us such great questions. There will be lots more to talk about in the run up to Oscars, so keep checking out our Movie Forum. Thanks again to all the readers!

Susan Wloszczyna: Thanks for joining us for our first Movie Forum. And check out Cloud Atlas this weekend to see if you agree or disagree with our assessments.

John Elliot: Remember - you can submit your burning movie questions all week long, below.

Check usatoday.com tomorrow for Susan's story on the genre-defying epic Cloud Atlas and Claudia's reviews of Cloud Atlas, Fun Size and Chasing Mavericks.

Thank you all for joining us for this first (!!!) USA TODAY Movie Forum!

Join the conversation next Wednesday at 3 PM EST/12 PM PST for another edition of Movie Forum.