Downturn in ratings dogs returning TV shows

Each fall, viewers (and TV executives) focus on the new, but the tried-and-true have a much greater influence on network ratings.

Shows typically lose viewers over time. But a few bright spots have cheered programmers this fall. Despite threats from streaming, ratings for Law & Order: SVU climbed 19%, The Good Wife grew 12%, Mom is up 34% and The Goldbergs 22%, all thanks to improved lead-in programs. (Nielsen figures include viewing delayed up to seven days on DVRs and three days on demand).

Fox's Sunday trio of The Simpsons (up 16%), Family Guy (+22%) and Brooklyn Nine-Nine (up 7% after moving there from Tuesdays) have improved.

But many more shows are down. Among those with precipitous drop-offs were ABC's Resurrection (-44% from last spring's run) and Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. (down 27%), CBS' Elementary (down 21%), and Fox's New Girl (-26%) and Sleepy Hollow, a new hit last fall that cratered 27%, leading Fox to a 14% decline this season.

"Usually when networks experience a precipitous fall, it's due to losses (by) returning programs," says analyst Brian Hughes of ad firm Magna Global USA, simply because there are more of them, and expectations for success are greater. "Anytime a new show takes hold it's a pleasant surprise, considering that 70% don't make it to a second season."

But some continuing programs are hurt by scheduling shifts: CBS' The Amazing Race is down 24% since its move to Fridays, and NCIS: Los Angeles is off 26% on Mondays, away from NCIS, though it's up a big 69% from Hostages, last fall's dud that it replaced. And with a weaker Marry Me lead-in, NBC's About a Boy is down 40% from last spring, when it aired after The Voice.

CW has added viewers this season, thanks to new hit The Flash, but all of its returning shows are down, led by The Vampire Diaries (-27%) and its spinoff, The Originals (-32%), though more of its younger audience watches online.