Travel to US rises just modestly as international trips are hit by Trump policy, rhetoric

President Donald Trump's "America First" credo is setting the country back in the global race to attract foreign visitors, a new study argues. 

Overseas visits to the U.S. grew meekly for the second straight year in 2018 amid Trump’s isolationist policies and rhetoric, a strong dollar and a slowing global economy, according to an analysis of government and private data by Tourism Economics.

Another tepid showing in international tourism is expected this year, it says. 

The number of visits from abroad, which excludes Canada and Mexico, rose 2 percent to 79.9 million last year, the same increase as in 2017, the study says.    

Total international visits, including Canada and Mexico, increased 3.3 percent following a 0.7 percent uptick in 2017, the research firm, a unit of Oxford Economics, estimates. By comparison, however, global travel rose 6 percent last year, with arrivals up 6 percent to Europe and Asia, and 10 percent to the Middle East.

“The U.S. is struggling to maintain competitiveness in what is one of its largest exports,” says Tourism Economics President Adam Sacks.

From 2011 to 2016, total international visits to the U.S. increased an average 4.1 percent a year, modestly below the global average of 4.5 percent.

Tourism Economics focuses on trips from across the Atlantic and Pacific oceans because those tourists spend an average of about $4,000 per visit at shops, hotels and airlines, compared with $1,000 for Canadians and $600 for Mexicans, Sacks says. Also, last year’s increases from Canada and Mexico were inflated by declines in visits from those countries from 2014 to 2016, partly as a result of currency exchange issues, he says.

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The research firm combines data from the National Travel and Tourism Office, the Department of Homeland Security and OAG, a United-Kingdom based air travel data firm.

Sacks mostly traces the U.S.'s lackluster tourism showing to Trump’s immigration crackdown, targeted chiefly at Mexico and Muslim countries, his trade war with China and a generally belligerent  stance toward Europe. After averaging annual growth of 23 percent the prior decade, visits from China flatlined last year. South Korea fell 3 percent. And Germany tumbled 7 percent.

“If diplomacy is combative and ‘America First’ becomes the brand of the country, it can have unintended consequences in terms of how people perceive the U.S.,” Sacks says.

Ironically, by undercutting international tourism, Trump’s sometimes-antagonistic stance is helping widen the U.S. trade deficit with other countries at a time when he has made narrowing the gap among his highest priorities. International visits to the U.S. represent the country’s top export, generating about $200 billion in sales last year, according to Tourism Economics.

That still makes the U.S. the leader in foreign tourism revenue. The nation is No. 3 as an international destination, behind France and Spain.

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White House officials did not respond to a request for comment.

The strong dollar -- which makes U.S. goods and services more expensive for tourists converting their currencies to greenbacks -- also has dampened visits from other countries, the study says. The dollar is valued about 10 percent above its long-term average after rising sharply from 2014 to 2016. The past five years, the cost of travel to the U.S. based on exchange rates has increased 42 percent for Brazil, 35 percent for Mexico, 20 percent for Canada and 14 percent for the United Kingdom, according to the report.

Another factor is a slowing global economy, which can crimp the income and confidence of foreign visitors. The world economy grew 3.7 percent in 2018, down from 3.8 percent in 2017, the International Monetary Fund estimates. The IMF expects a further slowdown  to 3.5 percent growth this year.