Americans need to prep for more extreme, wet weather

It's not overhyping: More extreme, wet weather events are likely across the USA, says National Weather Service director Louis Uccellini.

"The hypothesis is that warmer air can hold more water vapor, and you squeeze that out over narrow areas, you're going to get very heavy precipitation," Uccellini explains.

As the Earth heads toward its warmest year on record, that could mean even more moisture in the air.

Take the dousing of Phoenix this fall, Long Island over the summer or Colorado in spring. All provide anecdotal examples of intense precipitation, which makes storms more severe, especially when wintertime comes and precipitation arrives in more solid — and potentially more dangerous — forms of snow and ice.

"I think people ought to be aware of the vulnerabilities they face, given where they live — whether it's along the coast for hurricanes, in major snow belt areas for snow, in the western third of the country, especially in valleys (with the fire situation), and make sure they have a plan," he says.

Forecasting has improved to the point where storms can be tracked further in advance and temperatures can be better pinpointed.

"In a snow situation you really want to know what the road temperatures are. Is that snow going to sit on the roads? You really want to know what water vapor is available," Uccellini says. "All these local types of observations become increasingly important as you get nearer and nearer to the event, not only for predicting but sustaining the situation of awareness."

Awareness is a leading focal point at the National Weather Service (NWS), he says. Communicating with emergency responders further in advance and sending out weather alerts to the public can mitigate the impact of storms, meaning fewer injuries and deaths as well as less damage to property.

To that end, there is even a new social media initiative being undertaken by the NWS.

"Social media is becoming an incredibly important factor for us in terms of understanding and sustaining our situational awareness," Uccellini says. By tracking people's reported experiences on social media, the NWS can better map a storm's effect. On the flip side, the agency can leverage social platforms such as Twitter and Facebook to get alerts out to more people.

Plugging in to these alerts and posting information back to the NWS helps to build a more intelligent and more effective forecasting system.

"This is a social science issue, and as physical scientists, we haven't worked excessively with social scientists in the past," he says. "We're in a new domain in linking forecasts and warnings with decision makers, so we have to have a better understanding in terms of how people assess their risks and then take action according to that assessment."

At the top of that action list — in terms of safety warnings — are wireless emergency alerts, part of the NWS's Weather-Ready Nation campaign.

"On your cellphone, you can get a wireless emergency alert that says you're in an area that's under a tornado warning, so take shelter now. It alerts you to your geographic location. It has been a very important aspect of saving lives in major tornado outbreaks," Uccellini says.

One positive message that people may want to hear is that the El Niño event predicted for this winter will help the NWS and meteorologists everywhere better predict storms and extreme weather events.

If the El Niño pattern produces a southern stream that comes across Southern California, over the Gulf Coast and perhaps up the eastern seaboard — those systems tend to be more predictable than ones coming out of northern Canada or Alaska, Uccellini says.

To be sure if a storm is heading your way, sign up for weather alerts and tune in to weather reports.

If the most recent spate of extreme cold weather and below-freezing temperatures is any example of what's to come this winter, people may want to plan for extreme weather now.

In a way, emergency planning ought to be more like Black Friday; for many, it just can't come too soon.

Thomas M. Kostigen is the founder of The Climate Survivalist.com and a New York Times bestselling author and journalist. He is the National Geographic author of "The Extreme Weather Survival Guide: Understand, Prepare, Survive, Recover" and the NG Kids book "Extreme Weather: Surviving Tornadoes, Tsunamis, Hailstorms, Thundersnow, Hurricanes and More!" Follow him @weathersurvival, or e-mail kostigen@theclimatesurvivalist.com

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