Boehner, McConnell face big to-do list in next Congress

WASHINGTON — House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, and incoming Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., are working in tandem to tee up Republican bills for quick action in the next Congress, getting legislative proposals lined up and ready to go.

The two GOP leaders are eager to prove their party can govern — fearing a public backlash in 2016 if the political paralysis that has gripped the current Congress continues in the next one.

Boehner and McConnell will face a sprawling agenda — including legislative leftovers, such as a new highway bill, and new items, such as giving the president the authority to fast-track trade agreements through Congress.

Here's a look at a few issues that present their best prospects for legislative success, and a few that could tie the GOP in knots.

THE EASY GETS

• Keystone XL pipeline: The House has already passed legislation to authorize construction of this controversial oil pipeline — nine times. When the Senate took the bill up last month, supporters fell just one vote short of the 60 needed to push it forward. It will sail through come January, when Republicans take control of the Senate and have even bigger margins in the House.

"It's one of the first things the Republicans are going to do," said John Feehery, a former aide to House speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., and now a Washington consultant. "It's the easiest thing to get to the president's desk."

The only question, he said, is whether President Obama will sign or veto the legislation.

• Budget blueprint: Republicans repeatedly blasted Democrats for failing to pass a 10-year budget when they controlled the House and Senate. Now the GOP will have to deliver its own spending plan.

It will be easy — procedurally at least — because the budget measure cannot be filibustered; it needs only a simple majority, or 51 votes, to pass the Senate. And the GOP won't have to get Obama's signature, because it's a non-binding blueprint meant to shape congressional spending decisions.

But to balance the federal budget in 10 years, Republicans will have to outline unpopular spending cuts and back controversial policy positions. One hot-button question, for example: Will the GOP endorse transforming Medicare into a voucher program, with seniors given subsidies to purchase health care in the private market?

"They're going to have to belly up to the bar and take up these difficult issues," said G. William Hoagland, who served as director of budget and appropriations for former Senate majority leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn.

Republicans up for re-election in 2016 may not want to vote for "a scorched earth kind of budget" that takes aim at popular domestic programs, he said.

THE BIG MAYBES

• Trade: If there's one thing that McConnell, Boehner and Obama agree on, it's giving the president "fast-track" trade authority. That would mean any trade agreements negotiated by the Obama administration would be subject to a "yes" or "no" vote in Congress, with no amendments.

The two GOP leaders are free-trade champions, and the Obama administration is in the midst of negotiating a massive trade deal with about a dozen countries, including Australia, Singapore and Peru. So the issue will be a priority for both.

But it won't come without a fight. Liberal Democrats say such trade deals usually don't provide strong environmental or labor protections and can end up costing American jobs. Some conservative Republicans have also expressed reservations about granting the president such broad authority.

"Republicans don't necessarily want to give the president more authority on anything," said Feehery. At a time of "populist rage against globalization, (passing fast track) is not as easy as people might think."

• Highway bill: The past six years, Congress has failed to agree on a long-term transportation bill — instead passing 28 short-term measures that leave states lurching from one deadline to the next, unable to do long-term infrastructure planning. The current bill will expire in May.

That gives the 114th Congress a short window to fix a big problem: a shrinking Highway Trust Fund. That account gets its revenue primarily from the 18.4 cent-per-gallon tax on gasoline and a 24.4 cent-per-gallon tax on diesel fuel.

Those taxes don't generate nearly enough money to cover current highway spending. In past years, lawmakers have raided general revenues and used budget gimmicks to make up for the multibillion-dollar shortfall.

"The makings are there for really finding and building a bipartisan bill," said Emil Frankel, a former assistant Transportation secretary under George W. Bush and one-time state transportation commissioner in Connecticut. "The problem is paying for it."

With a GOP-controlled Congress unlikely to raise the gas tax or find other new money, Frankel said, the 114th Congress will probably deal with the highway bill the same way the last Congress did: "through a series of funding crises and bills running out and repeated patches."

THE TOUGH SELLS

• Immigration reform: This issue was already politically flammable, but Obama set it on fire last month when he used his executive powers to shield as many as 5 million undocumented immigrants from deportation.

Republicans are searching for a response that will appease hard-charging conservatives who want the GOP to block the president's action — but that doesn't alienate the fast-growing, politically powerful Hispanic population.

Obama and congressional Democrats will continue to push for legislation that provides a path to citizenship for some of the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. It's unclear whether Republicans can craft a compromise that offers some sort of legal status to that population, without sparking a backlash from conservative activists who oppose anything that smacks of "amnesty."

"It's an incredibly complicated and polarizing issue," said Steven Gillon, resident historian for the History Channel and author of The Pact, an account of the relationship between former president Bill Clinton and ex-House speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga.

But there's one major dynamic that will push immigration reform to the forefront: "Cold hard political calculus," Gillon said, noting that Hispanics will play a big role in the 2016 presidential election.

"If the Republicans want to present themselves as a viable governing party, they have to at least neutralize the immigration issue," he said. "And they need to pass legislation in order to do that."

• Tax reform: At first blush, this looks like a no-brainer, because Democrats and Republicans alike say the current tax code is a monstrosity riddled with loopholes for every special interest. There's broad agreement that lawmakers should nix those special breaks and use the revenue to lower the overall corporate tax rate, which at 35% is driving some companies to move their headquarters overseas.

But any attempt to strip those exemptions will be met with fierce resistance from politically wired lobbyists and deep-pocketed donors who benefit from special tax treatment. And while there's consensus on the outlines of tax reform, there is deep disagreement about some key details.

Plus, it could be a tough sell politically.

"A lot of people see tax reform as code for a back-door tax increase," said Gillon. Tax reform won't excite either party's base, won't move many swing voters and will create political enemies, he added.

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