6 dynamics that could make or break the next Congress

WASHINGTON — The 113th Congress is on track to be among the least productive in two decades. Will the next Congress be any better?

Newly empowered Republicans say yes — emphatically. After the GOP's resounding victory in the 2014 elections, party leaders have touted plans to pass a sweeping overhaul of the tax code, a deficit-slashing 10-year budget plan, and economy-revving trade and jobs bills.

Others express strong doubts that the legislative gridlock will break come January, when the 114th Congress convenes.

There are key political unknowns that make predictions of legislative success, or failure, tough: Will the frosty relationship between incoming Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and President Obama thaw, or ice up? If GOP leaders compromise with the president, will hard-charging conservatives in Congress go along or try to derail those efforts?

Here are three dynamics that could grease the skids for legislative action in the next Congress — followed by three dynamics that could keep the brakes on in Washington.

GOP TAKEOVER

The Republican takeover of the Senate will make "all the difference," promised Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio. There's no question that in the 113th Congress, a bevy of GOP priorities passed the Republican-held House only to hit a wall of opposition in the Democratic Senate. Now McConnell will be in a position to put those on the Senate agenda.

Plus, McConnell and House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, are on the same page in their desire to prove Republicans can govern.

"Both Boehner and McConnell are known as institutionalists and deal-makers who want to make things work," said former congressman Steve LaTourette, R-Ohio, now a lobbyist. "We better make a run at governing or 2016 is going to be bad" for Republicans on the ballot.

OBAMA'S LEGACY

The clock is ticking for Obama to secure some new legislative achievements and shape his legacy. Obama has a long list of things he'd like to have next to his name in the history books — from permanent and comprehensive immigration reform to sweeping new investments in the nation's infrastructure.

With Congress fully in GOP hands, the president will have to negotiate with Republicans if he wants to see those come to fruition.

"Obama does not want to leave behind a legacy of bitter partisanship," said Steven Gillon, resident historian for the History Channel and author of The Pact, an account of the relationship between former president Bill Clinton and ex-House speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga.

"He would like to end with some initiatives that would solidify his reputation beyond health care," Gillon said. "Something in the last couple of years that would be a bookend on his presidency and that shows that he didn't peak in the first year or two of his presidency and then experience a steady decline."

ECONOMIC REBOUND

The economic recovery is gaining steam, tax recipients flowing into federal coffers are up, and the budget deficit has dipped. That backdrop could ease the climate of fiscal austerity that has dominated Washington in recent years and give lawmakers a little more wiggle room to pay for bipartisan priorities.

"Prosperity gives everyone more flexibility to reach out," Gillon said. "It's the lubricant that allows the gears of government to move faster and to move more efficiently."

On the other hand:

PARTY DIVISIONS

The political landscape really won't be all that different. Despite the GOP's wins in the midterm elections, Washington is still sharply divided — with a Democratic president in the White House who can veto anything the GOP Congress passes. And while Republicans now control both the House and Senate, the GOP will still have to grapple with deep internal divisions and strong resistance from minority Democrats.

"All of the forces that generated epic levels of deadlock — divided government, polarization, electorally competitive parties —remain in place for the coming two years," said Sarah Binder, a political science professor at George Washington University who has studied gridlock extensively. Binder said there's an opening for some "begrudging agreement" on small-bore items, but little chance of big-time breakthroughs.

SAME OLD ISSUES

The major issues facing lawmakers haven't changed — or gotten any easier to fix. They will still have to search for new sources of revenue to refill the depleted Highway Trust Fund. They will still face a phalanx of special-interest lobbyists pressing them to preserve a loophole-ridden tax code. Immigration reform is as explosive as ever.

And while Republicans have said they want to pass federal spending bills in regular order — instead of through fiscal brinkmanship and short-term measures — some say even that very basic task could be tricky.

"When one party scores a decisive victory in an election … it always produces a sense that you have more power than you do," Gillon said.

"The most likely place that will play out is on spending issues," he said, with some Republicans inclined to "use the threat of a government shutdown as a way of getting what they want." Even though GOP leaders have already tried to rule out such a move, "there are probably some Republicans who feel Obama isn't relevant anymore and they're going to shrink the government and do it despite the political consequences."

2016 LOOMS

The 2016 election is going to be a doozy, and it has already started. Control for the Senate will be up for grabs again, with Democrats plotting to regain the majority and Republicans looking to shore up vulnerable incumbents. On top of that, there will be a wide-open presidential race.

Binder said that if Republicans think they can keep their majorities in Congress and win the White House, that will "override" their desire to show they can govern. They will hold off on major legislation until 2017, when they might control all the levers of government, she said.

LaTourette said there will be a short window before the 2016 election heats up and clouds the prospects for legislative agreement.

But by the summer, he said, "the presidential candidates will suck all the oxygen out of Washington and both parties will take their cues from their standard-bearers" on the campaign trail.

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