Marquette poll takeaways: Biden and Trump tied, RFK, Trump conviction, 'double haters'

A Marquette University Law School poll of Wisconsin voters released Wednesday showed the presidential race is still incredibly tight in Wisconsin, with registered voters equally split between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

It's the first installment of the poll after a New York jury found Trump guilty on 34 felony counts in a hush money trial. A majority of registered voters believe Trump is guilty and should have been prosecuted, but had different ideas of what an appropriate sentence would be.

The survey also shows enthusiasm could be a problem for Biden in Wisconsin: Those who are most enthusiastic to vote overwhelmingly support Trump. There's also an unprecedent amount of "double haters" — voters who don't like Biden or Trump.

The poll surveyed 871 registered voters in Wisconsin between June 12 and June 20. In that sample, 784 are considered likely voters. The poll's margin of error was plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

Here are the key takeaways from the poll:

Biden and Trump are tied, likely voters leaning more Democratic

In the poll released Wednesday, Biden and Trump were tied at 50% among registered voters. That's a slight bump for Biden, but still within the margin of error for the poll.

In the April poll, 51% of registered voters supported Trump and 49% preferred Biden. Trump and Biden were tied at 49% in Marquette's February poll.

Biden had a two-percentage point lead over Trump among likely voters, while Trump had a slight edge among that group in the April poll.

"This is such a small difference, I don't think you want to make much of it," poll director Charles Franklin said. "But it is consistent with findings that likely voters are a little bit more pro-Democratic this year than all registered voters."

More:Joe Biden, Donald Trump locked in dead heat in new Marquette Law Wisconsin poll

Majority said Trump should have been prosecuted, split on appropriate sentence

A majority of registered voters said prosecuting Trump was the right call and believe he is guilty. Most voters — 76% — said they heard or read a lot about Trump's trial in New York.

Voters had different ideas about an appropriate sentence for Trump. Just over a quarter said Trump should see no penalty at all, 12% said Trump should get a fine, 14% thought he should receive probation without jail, 36% thought he should spend some time in jail, and 10% didn't know.

At Trump's rally in Racine this month, his supporters said the conviction did not affect their decision to vote for him or empowers them even more to support him. In the poll, a large majority also believed that Republican prosecutors will charge Democratic politicians as a result of Trump's prosecution.

More:Trump supporters at Racine rally weigh in on hush money convictions, immigration

When third party candidates are included, Trump has three point lead

When the race includes third party candidates, Trump led 43% compared to 40% for Biden among registered voters.

Among registered voters, 8% supported independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy. Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver had 2%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein had 2% and independent candidate Cornel West at 4%.

Trump also led by one percentage point in April and three percentage points in February when third-party candidates were added into the mix.

Support for RFK is dropping, giving Trump more Republican votes

The poll showed a continued drop in support for Kennedy — 8% of registered voters supported him, down from 13% in the April poll and 17% in February.

Kennedy was attracting more votes from Republicans than Democratic respondents in the April survey. His support has come down among all partisan groups, but most among Republicans — one of the reasons Trump has a lead when third party candidates are considered.

Baldwin still has lead, no longer tied with Hovde among likely voters

In the U.S. Senate race, there was little change in support for Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Republican challenger Eric Hovde. Among registered voters, 52% chose Baldwin and 47% supported Hovde, compared to 53% and 47% in April.

While the race was tied among likely voters in April, Baldwin now leads 52% to 47% with that group this time around — the same numbers as registered voters.

Polls have showed Hovde is gaining recognition: 44% of registered voters said they haven't heard enough about him as a candidate to have a favorable or unfavorable view of him. That's down from 56% in the April survey and 82% in the February poll.

"As they get to know about (Hovde), they're likely — especially those Republicans — to understand that he's the Republican candidate and to be drawn back to him," Franklin said.

More:Tammy Baldwin holds lead over Eric Hovde in Wisconsin U.S. Senate race in new Marquette poll

Voters who are most enthusiastic support Trump, a problem for Biden

Ahead of the presidential debate Thursday and RNC in July, voter enthusiasm remains low, with 46% saying they’re very enthusiastic to vote, compared to 59% in June of 2020.

Those very enthusiastic to vote overwhelmingly support Trump, 61% to 39%. Of voters who are very enthusiastic, 98% say they're absolutely certain to vote this fall. 

The enthusiasm has decreased from the start of this year, with “very enthusiastic” slightly declining from 49% to 46% and those “not at all enthusiastic” spiking from 9% to 14%.

“That's a huge advantage to Trump,” Franklin said. “Here's a path for Joe Biden to lose this election pretty badly, is that he's failed to inspire his supporters. They're unenthusiastic about him and his campaign, and they're much less likely to vote than those who are very enthusiastic.”

Poll saw an unprecedented amount of 'double haters'

When it comes to favorability, Biden’s net favorability of -18 is in slightly worse than Trump's -16, but the electorate doesn’t like either candidate.

“We'd never had a campaign where both candidates were net negative,” Franklin said.

Franklin said that it’s the first time every candidate was viewed negatively since when they started polling on favorability.

Among registered voters, 17% were “double haters” who considered both Trump and Biden unfavorable — a higher percentage than 2020, but lower than in 2016.

Polling on issues remained largely unchanged

Biden maintained an advantage on Medicare, Social Security and health care, with abortion being the top issue voters see Biden better at handling. Voters gave Trump the advantage on handling the economy, immigration and the Israel-Hamas war.

The economy, immigration and border security and abortion policy remained voters’ top three issues, at 31%, 19% and 15%, compared to 33%, 21% and 18% in April.

By party identification, Republicans cared most about the economy, immigration and border security, while Democrats ranked abortion policy, Medicare and Social Security as their top issues.