Younger voters may make climate an issue in 2016

The millions of dollars spent in Iowa and other states for candidates who support action on climate change had little effect on voters' decisions Tuesday, experts say.

"It's not a huge priority for a lot of voters," said Tim Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa.

The question is whether environmental activists can make it a pivotal issue in Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucuses in 2016.

One group working on a nonpartisan basis to elevate the issue in Iowa: the Citizens' Climate Lobby, which is holding a regional conference in Des Moines through Sunday.

The biggest player on the issue this cycle, NextGen Climate, spent $57 million on races across the country backing Democrats who support action on climate change, but saw most of its favored candidates fall in a wave of GOP victories.

The group, a California political action committee founded by environmental activist Tom Steyer, vows that presidential candidates won't be able to avoid questions about climate change in the 2016 campaign.

"Saying I'm not a scientist — or not believing in basic scientific facts on climate change — isn't a tenable position," said Bobby Whithorne, a NextGen Climate spokesman.

"This topic isn't going away," he said. "We're building an infrastructure, having Iowans talking with Iowans at doors, on phones."

NextGen Climate targeted the heated contest between GOP state senator Joni Ernst, who beat U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley for the seat being vacated by retiring U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin.

It spent about $11 million in Iowa on TV and online advertising, organizing volunteers on university campuses and canvassing. The group said workers knocked on nearly 350,000 doors statewide, with 42,000 Iowans pledging to vote with climate change in mind.

This month, an international panel said humans' influence on climate is "clear and growing. ... If left unchecked, climate change will increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems."

But experts said it's hard for climate change to rise above more pressing topics. Climate change ranked as the sixth-most important issue for the next Congress to address, according to a Des Moines Register Iowa Poll taken early last month. It was behind unemployment and jobs, health care, federal deficit, terrorism and immigration.

Climate change especially resonates with Democrats, with likely caucus-goers ranking it as the third-most important issue for the next president, behind only unemployment and jobs, and health care, an Iowa Poll taken in early October showed. Conversely, only 1 of 425 likely Republican caucusgoers surveyed thought it was the most important issue for the next president, less than 1%.

"As we go forward in the 2016 cycle, it has the potential to become more of an issue," said Donna Hoffman, a University of Northern Iowa political science professor.

"It's not an issue that divides Democrats within the party, and it's not an issue that divides Republicans within their party. But it does divide Democrats from Republicans."

Democrats could use the issue to "peel off young voters," a highly valued voting group, Hoffman said. Iowa voters under age 35 ranked climate change fourth in importance for congressional leaders, after jobs, the deficit and immigration, the Iowa Poll in early October showed.

Even though NextGen Climate's track record was weak in the midterm election — with so-called climate-change deniers Gov. Rick Scott winning in Florida and U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner unseating an incumbent for the Colorado U.S. Senate seat — that doesn't mean it won't find successes over the next two years, Hoffman said.

"These things tend to ebb and flow," she said. "The Republican super PACs didn't have a good record in 2012 either."

She expects NextGen Climate to continue courting voters, especially young Iowans. It had 12 organizers on Iowa college campuses.

Young voters, Hoffman said, are less doubtful of the science behind climate change. They could change the way the political parties, particularly Republicans, view the issue, similar to shifts on same-sex marriage, for example.

"Climate change has that potential," she said.

Still, the U of I's Hagle said, young voters, like their older counterparts, often choose candidates based on concerns about economic issues.

"By and large, students are more concerned about getting their degrees, getting a job and paying off their loans," especially with high unemployment rates for young college grads, he said.

"It's hard for people to see how climate change affects them," Hagle said.

Mark Reynolds, executive director of Citizens' Climate Lobby, said his group is working to make climate change about the economy.

The organization works with lawmakers from both sides of the aisle to act on climate change and doesn't take an active role in elections.

The group supports legislation that would put in place a carbon fee that's revenue-neutral, meaning that all of the revenue is returned to U.S households. The group believes it would push companies and individuals to reduce by 50% the carbon emissions that contribute to global warming over the next 20 years.

"We're trying to win this argument from the (conservative) right," he said. "What we're trying to do ... is meet with enough Republican legislators, making the argument that a straightforward fee on carbon, with money going back to households, is the most transparent, market-oriented solution, rather than government solution."

Reynolds said his group spends "more time in Republicans' offices than in Democrats' offices," talking about the issue.

"Joni Ernst will be my new best friend."