Whoa, Wisconsin: Speed bump for Trump, Clinton

Whoa, Wisconsin.

The Wisconsin primary Tuesday was an unwelcome speed bump for Republican front-runner Donald Trump and Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, raising questions about their presidential campaigns at the moment each was hoping to project an aura of inevitability.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz thumped Trump, with Ohio Gov. John Kasich a distant third. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders defeated Clinton by a lopsided margin.

For Trump, a series of furors over everything from controversial policy pronouncements to his campaign manager’s arrest for manhandling a reporter seemed to be taking a toll: GOP voters were much more likely to say Trump, not his rivals, had run the most unfair campaign, and they gave Cruz a better shot at defeating Clinton. Almost half wanted someone with experience in politics as the nominee, a percentage nearly as high as it’s been in any state this year — and a group that has been largely resistant to Trump’s appeal.

Elections 2016 | USA TODAY Network

Four in 10 Republicans were “scared” of what Trump would do as president.

For Clinton, Democrats seemed to be having a debate between their hearts and their heads. By double digits, Democratic voters were more likely to say Sanders was inspiring hope for the future, but they also were more inclined to think Clinton had realistic proposals. They were much more likely to say Sanders was honest and trustworthy, but they thought Clinton had a better chance of defeating Trump in November.

That said, Trump and Clinton see a safety net ahead: New York. Cruz and Sanders hope victories in Wisconsin will boost their prospects in the Empire State, which holds the next primary on April 19. But Trump and Clinton insist the state where he was born and she now lives will provide a decisive boost and steadying victory heading into the primary campaign’s final stretch.

Wisconsin will make the path home bumpier.

“If we wake up the American people ... there is nothing that we cannot accomplish,” Sanders told a cheering campaign rally in Laramie, Wyo., which holds Democratic caucuses on Saturday.

Even so, it will take more than a victory in Wisconsin for him to shake the advantage Clinton has built among convention delegates.

“I think we will come out of Wisconsin without him being able to dent that lead in any kind of material way,” Clinton strategist Joel Benenson told USA TODAY. Before Wisconsin’s delegates were allocated, the AP calculated Clinton had 1,243 pledged delegates to Sanders’ 980. When unpledged “superdelegates” were included, her lead stretched to 1,712 delegates — 2,383 are needed for nomination — to 1,011 for Sanders.

But Clinton’s loss in the Badger State underscored the challenges she still faces in delivering an inspirational message in general and in appealing to younger voters in particular. Sanders has now won six of the past seven Democratic contests.

For Trump, the consequences of the Wisconsin loss could be more serious. Neither Cruz nor Ohio Gov. John Kasich are in a position to command the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination, but they are trying to deny Trump that majority. Going into the Wisconsin primary, Trump had 737 delegates; Cruz trailed at 481 and Kasich at 143.

Keeping Trump below the 1,237 needed for nomination could lead to the first contested convention in four decades.

“Tonight, Wisconsin has lit a candle guiding the way forward,” Cruz told a victory rally in Milwaukee, predicting the victory would enable him to amass a majority of delegates leading up to the convention or during it. In a lengthy address that seemed more focused on the general election than the remaining primaries, he vowed, “Let me just say, Hillary, get ready. Here we come.”

Cruz beats Trump in Wisconsin, increasing chances of open convention

Bernie Sanders defeats Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin

The exit polls in Wisconsin illustrated some of the perils ahead, though, including the prospect of a civil war in the GOP.

If no candidate arrives in Cleveland with a majority, more than half of Republican primary voters said the nomination should go to the candidate with the most votes; just over four in 10 said the convention delegates should decide. Not surprisingly, Trump supporters felt particularly strongly about the idea; more than eight in 10 said the leading candidate should get the nod. But nearly six in 10 Cruz and Kasich voters endorsed the idea of letting the delegates decide.

Perhaps most troubling for Republican strategists: The divides in the GOP don’t end when the nomination is settled. In Wisconsin, just 61% of GOP primary voters said they would vote for Trump in a contest against Clinton. Only a bit more, 65%, would vote for Cruz in a Cruz vs. Clinton race. The rest would consider voting for a third party, stay home or even vote for the Democrat.

Republicans now are braced for the party’s longest primary battle in a generation.

This isn’t the way it usually works. The GOP instinct to coalesce behind the presumptive nominee is so strong that in three of the past five contested primaries, the final rivals conceded even before their opponents had clinched the nomination. This was the week that Rick Santorum withdrew in 2012, clearing the way for Mitt Romney even though the former Massachusetts governor wouldn’t have a delegate majority in hand until late May.

The last time the Republican nomination was still in doubt at this point was in 1980. But this year the GOP race already is guaranteed to run through the final set of state primaries in California, New Jersey and elsewhere on June 9 — and perhaps even to the convention itself.