Biden leads Trump in post-conviction Minnesota poll

The first poll of Minnesota voters since Donald Trump was convicted of 34 felonies shows President Joe Biden with a slight lead.

A new poll released by KARE11, MPR News and the Minneapolis Star Tribune found a tight race in the North Star State.

Despite the fact that no Republican presidential candidate has won Minnesota in more than 50 years, and with Biden handily beating Trump in 2020, an unapproving and apathetic electorate could make 2024 a close election.

A New York jury convicted Trump last month on 34 counts of falsifying business records in a scheme to cover up hush money payments made to porn actress Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 election. Trump has vowed to appeal.

Here are the key takeaways from the poll.

Biden leads Trump in Minnesota battleground, but not by much

Of the 800 registered Minnesotan voters polled, 44.5% said they'd support Biden while 40.6% said they'd cast their vote for Trump with a margin of error of ± 3.5 %

Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. holds 6.4% of the vote while 7% of those surveyed were undecided and 2% favored other candidates.

Who's voting for who?

Minnesotan voters are sticking to their party lines, according to the results. Most Democrats supported Biden and Republicans favored Trump.

Independent voters are split. While nearly 12% said they were undecided, more than 37% of those polled said they'd cast their ballot for Trump, almost 35% for Biden.

Is RFK Jr. a spoiler candidate?

According to Kennedy, no, he doesn't see himself as a spoiler.

Despite it being statistically unlikely that Kennedy wins the presidential election, his presence on the ballot is attracting unhappy voters away from their major party figures.

Thirteen percent of independent voters polled in Minnesota said they'd back Kennedy.

In an exclusive interview with USA TODAY, the 70-year-old said he's the hope a lot of Americans are looking for.

“I think it's important that Americans feel that its potential for democracy to work for them, and they don't have to vote the lesser of two evils. They don't have to hold their nose and vote for a candidate they don't like because they hate the other guy worse,” Kennedy said.

In a race that looks like it might come down to single digits, the independent candidate could tip the election.

"I think it's important to give them an alternative where they can continue to have hope for our democracy and vote out of inspiration rather than fear,” Kennedy said.

What do Minnesotans care about?

The poll identified five top issues for voters:

• Democracy (27.4%)
• Economy/jobs (26.1%)
• Immigration (14.6%)
• Crime (8%)
• Healthcare (7%)

Previous polling from KSTP/SurveyUSA gave Biden a two-point lead in both April and May surveys.

— Sam Woodward is the Minnesota elections reporting fellow for USA Today. You can reach her atswoodward@gannett.com, on X @woodyreports, or on Threads @samjowoody