Georgia election to chart course toward West or Russia

• Patience with the government appears to be waning
• Dozens of opposition supporters have been detained
• Many young people say they want change

TBILISI, Georgia – Tensions are mounting in Georgia ahead of parliamentary elections Monday, as violence and the arrests of opposition activists threaten to mar a key vote for the strategically important pro-Western nation that could undermine its near decade of democratic progress and lead to a change in orientation toward Russia.

Monday's election is now expected to be a close call between President Mikheil Saakashvili's pro-Western United National Movement (UNM) party and his upstart rival, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, founder of the opposition and pro-Russia Georgian Dream coalition formed last fall.

The reason for the closeness was the release of video footage that ran on national television Sept. 18 showing prison inmates being tortured and raped, bringing thousands of protesters onto the streets and giving the opposition campaign a boost just days before the election.

"We're here to change the governmental system," said Vano Rokva, a student attending an anti-government rally in the capital Tbilisi. "We want to stop torture in jails and make a new government, a new country."

Dozens of opposition supporters have been detained at anti-government rallies and in incidents across the country in recent days. The arrests come at the height of what election observers for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe described as an "increasingly polarized, confrontational and rough" campaign for dominance of the Georgian parliament.

"This election is crucial [because] Georgia has to restore credibility in its democracy-building strategy after the revelations about abuses in the penitentiary system," said Stephen Jones, a former adviser to the U.S. government on Georgia.

Ivanishvili poses the first serious political challenge to American-trained lawyer Saakashvili since he swept to power in the peaceful Rose Revolution of 2003, which established democracy in the post-Soviet state. Saakashvili's promise to transform Georgia into a beacon of freedom and democracy in the troubled Caucasus region made the Georgian leader the darling of the West, particularly as he promised to be a buffer against Russian influence.

Few deny the scale of change in the country since 2003: The once widespread petty corruption among police and low-level officials has been all but wiped out, and everyday security for ordinary people has massively improved.

"Things have changed a lot since the Rose Revolution. There is less corruption now – it is very safe,
and you can see people strolling late at night," said Veronika Geladze, 33, deputy director of a language school in Tbilisi.

These achievements, say the government and its supporters, are why Saakashvili deserves more time to fulfill his grand vision for Georgia.

"Of course, we have a long way to go and the system is not perfect, but you cannot expect things to change overnight," said Geladze.

Yet patience with the government appears to be waning, especially among the young. And the timing of the prison-abuse scandal has lent immediacy to local civic groups' long-held claims that Saakashvili has failed to address human rights abuses in the country.

Georgian Dream campaign officials say violent crackdowns on street protests in 2007 and 2011, persistent high-level corruption and continuing restrictions on media freedoms are evidence that Saakashvili's rule has grown increasingly authoritarian in recent years.

"Saakashvili has proven to be a serious reformer," said Lilit Gevorgyan, an analyst at U.K.-based IHS Global Insight. "But somewhere along his time in office, [his] focus shifted from reforms to maintaining his
government in power."

But as the students themselves acknowledge, they will need the support of the older generations and voters in poorer rural areas – who have not benefited financially from Saakashvili's rule – if they want to loosen the president's grip on Georgian politics with a decisive defeat for his party at the ballot box.

"Georgia doesn't just consist of us, the older people must be among us, with us – they must decide wisely," said Rokva.

And while few of the opposition's supporters can identify what Ivanishvili will bring other than a fresh face, he is still seen by many as an attractive potential leader.

"Ivanishvili is offering change," said Jones. "It's not obvious what sort of change that will be, or whether he has the political capacity to introduce those changes."

His wealth is a clear factor in his popularity. Once shy and secretive, the business tycoon, who is estimated to be worth $6.4 billion, is a longtime benefactor of the Georgian people, and claims to have donated over $2 billion of his personal fortune to his countrymen. Not only is he considered generous but as a man whose wealth is equal to half his country's GDP, he is seen to have nothing to gain, personally, from entering politics.

"Ivanishvili has the advantage of being a financially well-off outsider," said Gevorgyan. "His credentials as a successful businessman are important, as many Georgian voters see [other] politicians fighting not for the people's interests but for their own economic betterment."

By contrast, many Georgians view Saakashvili as the man who led the country into the disastrous war with Russia in 2008 – a conflict he has used to stifle political opposition by painting his rivals as stooges of
Georgia's former imperial master. Meanwhile, Ivanishvili, who made his fortune in post-Soviet Russia, has promised to normalize relations with Georgia's powerful neighbor.

Come Monday, the eyes of the world will be on the ballot boxes, says Jones, as only a fair and free election can calm the situation and prove Georgia has, indeed, come a long way from the dictatorship it was a decade ago.

"Whatever the election results, the opposition [could] claim fraudulent elections and there is a danger, particularly after the recent demonstrations over torture, that this will escalate," he said.

Many young people though say they want change.

"We want true democracy, not [a system] like this," said student Lasha Toreli, 20.