Anxious Japan shifts to right ahead of poll

• Voters will choose seventh prime minister in six years
• Despite Fukushima, nuclear energy not a key campaign issue
• Violent protests in China this year opposed Japan's control of the Senkaku islands

BEIJING – The conservatives in Japan are poised to retake power after a three-year absence amid threatening territorial disputes with China and a 20-year economic slump.

A record-breaking 11 parties are competing in Sunday's elections but media opinion polls suggest that Shinzo Abe will win back the premiership if his Liberal Democratic Party does as well as the polls predict.

Japan has recovered from its March 2011 earthquake and tsunami disasters but its economy lagged as demand for its cars and electronics fell in Europe, which has been going through tough times as well.

Abe, 58, a former solider and prime minister in 2006-07, is known for his hard stance on security and his goal of altering Japan's pacifist constitution to allow the country's military more room to act against threats. That may play well now that China has threatened to use force to assert its claim over islands that Japan insists are their own.

"General anxieties among the people relating to the economy in the doldrums and a rising China have combined to shift political discourse to the right," said Jeff Kingston, a Japan expert at Temple University in Tokyo.

Abe's right-wing, nationalist agenda, talking tough on self-defense and territorial disputes, has swung domestic support but his critics in the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), which broke the LDP's 50-year hold on power in 2009, says he will worsen already poor relations with China.

Violent protests in China this year opposed Japan's control of the Senkaku islands, a group of rocky outcrops that Beijing says should be theirs, and which has dispatched navy boats there in recent days to assert their claim. Japan annexed the islands in the late 19th century and says there is no evidence of Chinese presence on the islands.

But after a series of mismanaged issues and failure to revive the world's third largest economy, "the public is generally disappointed with the DPJ and will punish the DPJ," which has leaked voter support to the new 'third-force' parties, said Jun Iio, a political scientist at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo.

"Compared to the old days, the power of the right is increasing, as the economy is not so good, people lose confidence, and want strong support, and there is anti-China and anti-Korea sentiment," he said.

After the revolving-door of successive premiers, apathy now runs deep.

"The general public is tired and has no enthusiasm," said Iio. "They will choose 'the lesser evil'" -- the LDP -- "and I expect a lower turnout rate."

Kingston agrees.

The DPJ is "heading for a bloodbath, they are going to lose big" in the vote for the 480-seat lower house of parliament.

Perceived as not caring about voter's bread-and-butter issues, Abe was derided by the nickname "Clueless" during his ill-fated first premiership, Kingston said. This campaign, the LDP has pushed an economic recovery program.

Nuclear energy, long backed by the LDP, has played a surprisingly marginal role in the campaign, he said, after the 2011 earthquake and tsunami that caused a partial meltdown of nuclear fuel at a Fukushima reactor and release of radioactivity.

"It's ironic that the party that promoted the nuclear industry when in power is going to win the election that many people had thought would be a referendum on nuclear energy," Kingston said.

However, the polls show an unusually high percentage of citizens remain undecided, including Masaki Inaba, 43, who works at a Tokyo non-profit co-ordinating Japanese non-profits' activities in Africa.

The DPJ has not done enough to retain my vote, said Inaba, a former DPJ voter.

"But in the past three years, the LDP has become more and more right wing, like the Tea Party in the U.S.," he said. "If they win, we are afraid they will pursue aggressive diplomatic and military policy, and a neo-liberal economic policy that will widen the division between rich and poor."

Takuya Matsuda, 23, a final-year student of political science at Keio University in Tokyo, is sticking with Prime Minster Yoshihiko Noda and his DPJ.

"Other parties are very extreme, right-wing, and very dangerous for Japan," he said. With short-term, populist policies, the LDP will only increase the national debt the younger generation must repay, Matsuda said.

His classmate Ayumi Teraoka, 22, is leaning towards the LDP in her first ever vote.

"Older people remember how Japan was doing well under the LDP in the 1960s, 70s and 80s, how LDP policies brought remarkable international status, and they want a strong Japan back," she said. "I think the LDP is more experienced than other parties and will not turn so radically to the right," despite its fiery campaign rhetoric.

Hiroshi Meguro, an international relations expert at Hosei University in Tokyo, does not think Abe will be able to implement his ideas on national security. The LDP will likely form a parliamentary coalition with the pacifist New Komeito party, Meguro says.

"It's very hard to persuade (New Komeito) to join the rightist camp," Meguro said.

Japanese business circles are putting pressure on Abe not to rock China's boat, he said, but the Senkaku issue could easily escalate into a serious Sino-Japanese incident.

"Both sides have said a lot of things in public, and can't change their words quickly," Meguro said. "They need to buy time.