Analysis: Castro's death won't end Cuba's communist rule

MIAMI — The death of the father of Cuba's communist revolution won't mean that the repressive political system Fidel Castro installed nearly 58 years ago will die with him.

Castro, who died at age 90 Friday night, made sure his revolution would live on after he fell ill in 2006 by handing over the reins to his younger brother, Raúl, in 2008. That has given Raúl, now 85, time to consolidate his power as Cuba's new strongman.

After eight years as president, the younger Castro has cemented domestic and foreign relationships necessary to maintain control of Cuba's military, economy and tightly controlled social order.

Fidel Castro: Among world's most influential leaders for a half-century

Throughout that time, he had Fidel nearby serving as an adviser and ever-present national icon — a seal of approval for anybody who questioned his rule. Their tag-team strategy was evident whenever foreign leaders visited the island: They would hold public appearances with Raúl and then meet privately with Fidel.

The system Fidel created even has endured with little change during the two years since President Obama and Raúl Castro ended five decades of isolation between the United States and Cuba, a move analysts expected would bring more freedom to the island. Normalized relations have sparked many new U.S. business ventures on the island but the suppression of political liberties continues and state control of the economy has eased only slightly.

Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla., who was born in Havana and has long fought to topple the Castro regime, said Fidel's death only "closes one chapter of this nightmare."

"Don't expect changes coming from Fidel's death," she said. "The only thing Fidel Castro has been successful at was staying in power."

Cuba's political future might be very different had Fidel insisted on remaining as president and then died in office. Many books in past years had predicted an uncertain transition from Castro to the next generation of leaders.

The thinking was that Raúl — a quiet, efficient man who mostly focused on military issues — would be unable to replace the outsized personality of his older brother.

Fidel Castro: From Catholic schoolboy to dictator

Fidel ruled for nearly a half century partly because of his charisma and energy, delivering hours-long speeches throughout the island and relishing in the international attention whenever he traveled abroad. Raúl is a man of few words who shies away from public appearances.

During Obama's visit to Cuba in March, Raúl was visibly shaken when Obama opened the floor to questions, causing him to fumble through his answers and needing help from aides.

Now, the international focus will lie squarely on Raúl, who may have his own health problems and a short-term future. Raúl holds several positions in Cuba — president, first secretary of the communist party and head of Cuba's military. Castro has said he will step down from the presidency in 2018, but there is no indication he will give up the other positions.

Jaime Suchlicki, director of the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami, said that will allow Raúl to continue to influence Cuba's next president and maintain control over the more powerful mechanisms of the party and the military. Suchlicki estimates Cuba's military runs 65% of Cuba's economy — including its flourishing tourism industry.

The end result, Suchlicki said, will be similar to what China experienced under Mao Zedong, who controlled the country from his position as head of the communist party into the late 1970s.

"He's not leaving power," Suchlicki said. "He's only leaving the office of the presidency."

Fidel's legacy: A repressive regime, waves of exodus

At some point, Raúl's time will come to an end and it will be up to others to take over. The question then is whether the Castro brothers have left an entrenched government system in place that can survive a transition to a new group of leaders.

Suchlicki said they have done just that. He said the military's key role in the island's centrally planned economy means higher-ranking officials will want to ensure the status quo.

"They have a vested interest," he said. "They're not just going to say, 'We'll drop all of this and we'll go back to the barracks and wait for orders.' This is a structure that has penetrated the military, the political system, the economic system, the social system. That is the key to survival of this system."

Who those next leaders might be, however, is difficult to predict because the Castros would elevate, then toss aside, potential successors.

For now, José Ramón Machado, 85, a longtime ally of the brothers, is in place as second secretary of the Communist Party, but there are other, younger leaders who could step in to fill the void. Miguel Díaz-Canel, 56, first vice president of Cuba's Council of State, is another one waiting in the wings.

Only time will tell whether the transition following the death or retirement of Raúl Castro goes as smoothly as the one likely to follow Fidel Castro's death.