Obama faces challenges on Asia trip: Column
President Obama touches down Wednesday in Japan where he starts an important week-long trip that will also take him to South Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines. The region is currently racked with tension and if the visit is to be successful, the president must reassure these allies about America's continuing commitment to them and also send a clear message to the rest of the region, especially China, about U.S. resolve to place greater strategic emphasis on the Asia-Pacific region in coming years.
The trip comes at a moment when U.S. foreign policy attention is diverted by events in Ukraine. And many in Asia are watching how Obama counters Russia's aggression as a potential signal for how Washington might respond to future Chinese belligerence.
The need for U.S. reassurance about its commitment to Asia also comes in a broader context. Last autumn, Obama chose to postpone his long-planned Asian trip because of the U.S. government shutdown. And the region has undergone big changes that have presented challenges for Obama: a rare leadership transition resulting in a more assertive Beijing, and the election in Japan of the conservative, nationalist Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
Regional tensions
Indeed, Obama faces an array of obstacles. For instance, progress in securing the landmark Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement — comprising at least 12 countries that collectively account for about 40% of world GDP — might be stalling.
Moreover, Obama is fire-fighting significant bilateral tensions, including between Japan and South Korea. These tensions have been heightened by the election of Abe, who seeks to overturn the legal and political underpinnings of Japan's post-World War II pacifist security identity. While this posture is largely aimed at Beijing, it has alarmed Seoul, too.
In both Tokyo and Seoul, Obama must therefore use all his diplomatic skills to stress the importance of the enduring U.S. partnership with each country, including in defense against aggression from external parties, such as North Korea.
Strengthening ties
Obama's agenda in Malaysia and the Philippines, two key members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, will also focus on strengthening ties. There is considerable distrust of China within many ASEAN countries, not least over territorial and natural resource claims in the South China Sea.
In this context, Manila's desire to strengthen ties with Washington will be formalized with the signing of a U.S.-Philippine defense cooperation treaty. In Malaysia, Obama will be the first U.S. president to visit in five decades. He is likely to receive a warm welcome given the recent deterioration in relations with China since the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370.
Overall, real success will be determined by Obama's ability to reassure each country about U.S. commitments on the security, economic and political fronts. If he fails, the vacuum may be filled by rising regional tensions and insecurity in the coming months.
Andrew Hammond, a former special adviser in the British government of Tony Blair, is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
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