Trump’s populist agenda and booming economy are on the line in midterms

Tuesday's midterm elections are the moment of truth for the Trump presidency. Whether Republicans retain control of Congress is a referendum on the president’s job performance, policy direction and unorthodox leadership style.

The 2016 presidential showdown was a reminder that elections do matter, and the stakes couldn't be higher in this year’s contests. If voters give Democrats a majority in at least one chamber of Congress, the result of divided government in these volatile times will be legislative stalemate, probable impeachment of the president by a House with Nancy Pelosi as speaker, who is unlikely to show any restraint, and increasing political controversy that would damage the booming economy.

Despite nonstop noise about dangerous divisiveness generated by this White House, Donald Trump’s popularity was at 51 percent on Friday, Nov. 2, only four days before the midterms. Eighteen months into his first term, Trump’s approval rating was 5 points higher than Barack Obama’s at the same point in his time in office, according to Rasmussen Reports, one of thefew polling firms that consistently showed Trump had a chance of winning in 2016.

Trump's economy, not Obama's, is booming

To be at 50 percent or above is no small achievement given stark disagreements in the country on issues from immigration and taxes to judicial nominees and political correctness as well as the unprecedented media attacks on this president. A Harvard study at the end of Trump’s first 100 days reported that 80 percent of news about Trump was negative out of the gates, and an analysis this summer by the Media Research Center showed that 92 percent of TV coverage about the Trump administration was negative.

The president’s respectable job approval amidst so much critical press is based on a solid track record of policy achievements, especially related to an historically flourishing economy. For example, the unemployment rate of 3.7 percent is the lowest since 1969, the 156.6 million U.S. workers currently employed are the most ever, wages are growing at the fastest annual clip (3.1 percent) since the Great Recession, and consumer confidence is at a 17-year high.

Business leaders have made clear why they are hiring and investing: Republicans’ $1.5 trillion tax reform, which dramatically cut corporate rates, and a 74 percent decline in regulatory activity combined to create a more stable investment climate. Dozens of America’s largest companies immediately announced bonuses, pay hikes and new employee benefits in response to the Trump tax cuts. 

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“Expansion continues to be a priority for small businesses who show no signs of slowing as they anticipate more sales and better business conditions,” explained Juanita Duggan, CEO of the National Federation of Independent Business. “It is only proper that our employees share in the savings generated by tax reform, and that we openly acknowledge the resulting improvement in the U.S. business environment by investing in our industrial footprint accordingly,” said late Fiat-Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne in announcing $2,000 bonuses for 60,000 autoworkers, 2,500 new jobs, and a $1 billion investment in a Michigan factory.

Trump’s economic progress is not going unnoticed. An ABC News-Washington Post poll released Sunday reported that 71 percent of registered voters give the economy a positive rating, and over 80 percent say they are doing as well or better financially now than before Trump took office. 

Trump is also delivering on his promises abroad

Trump’s domestic success is matched by bold achievements in foreign policy. Making good on campaign promises, the president has convinced Europe to pay for more of its defense, started rebuilding the U.S. military after two presidencies of overextension abroad, cancelled the ineffective nuclear deal with Iran, moved America’s embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem after decades of unfulfilled commitments by previous presidents, and scrapped NAFTA and replaced it with trade agreements with Canada and Mexico that favor more U.S. content.

In 1972 when President Richard Nixon visited Mao Zedong in Beijing and opened U.S. relations with the isolated Asian power, it was commonly said that, “Only Nixon could go to China” because his anti-communist bonafides gave him political cover from criticism that he was going soft during the Cold War. A similar dynamic is at play in the Trump administration’s ongoing negotiations with Pyongyang to get the repressive state to denuclearize.

By belittling North Korean leader Kim Jong-un as “Rocket Man” and constantly linking potential trade agreements with China to Beijing’s cooperation on a nuke deal, Trump covered his flank and motivated Beijing to put pressure on its North Korean client state, which is dependent on China trade to survive. “I think President Trump has made China move more than they have in the past,” said Adm. Mike Mullen, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, about the president’s chess moves in the Far East.

Curiously, Trump’s most significant policy failures are on issues that mobilized the conservative base and got him elected. These issues went viral as campaign hashtags #BuildTheWall and #DrainTheSwamp in 2016 and still resonate with conservatives. Making progress on immigration and civil service reforms necessitates a unified GOP Congress for at least two more years.

President Trump is on the goal line with one more down, the clock is ticking on the midterm election, and his legacy depends on a big win.

Brett M. Decker, assistant professor of business at Defiance College, is a former editor for The Wall Street Journal and Washington Times and author ofThe Conservative Case for Trump. Follow him on Twitter: @BrettMDecker