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Climate Change

All the selfish reasons we need an anti-oil foreign policy. It's not just about climate.

We have the power to cripple the oil states and build US technological superiority. A dramatic shift to renewables will help us, not other countries.

Sean Burns
Opinion contributor
Near Palm Springs, California, on April 22, 3016.

As a new U.S. government report shows, climate change will have massive negative effects on our economy and cause significant displacement of Americans. Republicans responded by questioning the science of climate change, or like Sens. Mike Lee and Ben Sasse, claiming that a switch to renewable energy sources would hurt the nation.

In fact, a transition to renewable energy is quite feasible. And, separate from its effects on the environment, it would advance long-term U.S. foreign policy interests by undermining the international influence of oil.

Climate change is the global challenge of our time. Limiting its effects will require the rapid replacement of carbon-producing fossil fuels with battery-powered vehicles and renewable energy sources.

But moving away from carbon-based fuels should not be thought of as a cost that America must pay to help the world. It is, rather, an opportunity to advance U.S. domestic and foreign policy goals. America should pursue an aggressive strategy of rapid decarbonization of the world economy for its own selfish interests.

We can't fix climate alone, but others will follow 

Climate change is a worldwide problem that requires a worldwide solution. Sasse and other Republicans, when they accept climate change exists, argue that the United States cutting emissions won’t help because other countries will not follow suit. It is a dubious claim, but it reflects a real concern.

In the terms of economic and political theory, climate change is a collective action problem. Everyone will benefit from a reduction in fossil fuel use, but everyone hopes someone else will pay the bulk of the cost.

It is easiest to solve a collective action problem when one player is big enough to solve the problem alone and will uniquely benefit from its solution. America is still the world’s only superpower. Ending the world’s reliance on fossil fuels is in its power and would provide us with unique and individual benefits.

America cannot solve climate change alone, but it can unilaterally drive down renewable energy prices so much that it makes sense for most of the world to switch away from hydrocarbons, and it should do so to advance its own interests.

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Oil and natural gas prop up authoritarian states and create security challenges for our country. Hydrocarbon rentier states — nations such as Saudi Arabia that depend on fossil fuel exports for large portions of their revenue — are less democratic, more corrupt and more wasteful than similar states without oil. Oil creates conflict, which often requires U.S. intervention. And much of the U.S. foreign policy exposure, particularly in the Persian Gulf, is a result of the U.S. desire to protect world oil supplies.

Most important, however, is that oil and gas wealth props up and empowers U.S. enemies and force the United States to enable and depend on dubious allies. Fossil fuel wealth and control empower Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Iran's government gets most of its revenue from oil exports. And U.S. relationships with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states have long represented a trade-off between long-term interests in democratization and short-term interests in keeping the oil flowing.

America has the power to cripple the oil states while building on its own technological superiority. Renewable energy technology is becoming cheaper at a rapid rate and, as David Roberts at Vox has shown, it can be purposefully sped up.

The industrial learning curve measures the price drop that comes with every doubling of production. It is separate from economies of scale and represents learning how to do things better. We have not reached the bottom of the learning curve for solar or wind, and we are not near the bottom for batteries. So no major technological discoveries are required, just practice.

Renewable energy will kill fossil fuels soon

It costs less in some places to create wind or solar farms than to keep running coal or natural gas plants. We are on the cusp of making electric cars the standard, and they are ultimately cheaper to own than internal combustion vehicles. Buying more of this technology will make the technology even cheaper, leading to a death spiral for fossil fuel prices.

The United States should make large investments in buying and deploying renewable energy technology, both at home and abroad, as a means of disempowering oil states and reducing U.S. defensive exposure abroad. It should do so at home by cutting fossil fuel subsidies, creating a much needed next-generation national power grid, and buying electric cars for its vehicle fleets. Abroad it should provide subsidies for developing countries to buy U.S. renewable energy technology. Eventually, a carbon tax on both domestic and imported goods would be beneficial.

Most important, the United States should be clear about what it is doing. America should announce that it plans to make oil and natural gas all but obsolete in the international economy within 20 years. This will have immediate impact on the foreign and domestic affairs of the oil states and reduce potential conflicts over new sources, particularly in the Arctic, Mediterranean and South China Sea.

The Montreal Protocol against ozone layer depletion is often cited as a model for climate change mitigation, but it probably would not have happened if the largest producer of ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons, DuPont, did not have a replacement product ready or if America had not pushed for the treaty. A U.S. company had the technology and the United States led the change. We need that boldness again.

America should lead a world push toward renewable energy, not only to slow climate change but to also disempower its rivals, break free from dubious allies, reduce the number of conflict flashpoints, and increase U.S. technology dominance.

It can do so simply by doing what is already in its domestic interests: rapidly scaling up the use of renewable and battery technology, and subsidizing the spread of American technology to the developing world.

Sean Burns, a visiting assistant professor at The College of William and Mary, taught college in Qatar for five years and is the author of the 2018 book "Revolts and the Military in the Arab Spring: Popular Uprisings and the Politics of Repression." Follow him on Twitter: @XLProfessor

 

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