Cartels run parts of Mexico. Will its first female president do what it takes to stop them?

Mexico’s next president will either be former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum or Sen. Xóchitl Gálvez.

Voters will mark that historic moment this Sunday when they go to the polls to elect the country’s first female president, choose congressional representatives and decide local races.

While I’d like to take a moment to kiss off Mexico’s “machismo” culture, it is impossible not to dive right into the alarming cartel violence shocking the political world just south of our border.

The new president faces enormous challenges in the cartels and an increasingly hostile United States, where politicians keep talking of invading Mexico militarily in their quest to get elected.  

It’s worrisome to think that neither Sheinbaum nor Gálvez can or are willing to take on the cartels and U.S. aggression. And no, their gender has nothing to do with it.

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AMLO hasn't taken on Mexico's cartels

No president has been able to rein in the Mexican cartels that are now expanding their violence to extortion at all levels, from tortilla businesses to fishermen and chicken vendors, to the killing of at least 30 mayoral or town council candidates this year.

All that is happening under the watch of outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, or AMLO, as he’s commonly known.

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The president, who rebuffs claims that his “hugs not bullets” policies have made things worse, handpicked as his successor Claudia Sheinbaum, a scientist who has been by his side during his presidency.

Sheinbaum is leading in the polls and is considered the favorite to win on Sunday under the banner of AMLO’s party Morena. She has promised to follow AMLO’s policies. That could change, of course, if she’s elected.

Gálvez, the opposition candidate backed by business elites and a political coalition that includes the PRI that governed Mexico for 71 years, hammered on the violence message in her closing remarks on Wednesday.

“Are we going to continue with hugs, or are we going to apply the law to criminals?” Gálvez asked. “Mexico wants peace, wants tranquility.”

It’s a message that should resonate, given that the cartels have effectively taken over some regions in states such as Guerrero, Michoacán, Sinaloa and Tamaulipas.

Will Gálvez's anti-cartel message resonate?

López Obrador, who was elected promising to fight corruption and violence, dismantled the federal police and replaced it with a quasi-military National Guard that hasn’t taken on the cartels.

Gálvez is promising to restore funding for police, guaranteeing monthly wages of at least $1,200. But she’d have to do a lot more than that to rebuild an entire police force or an army with the experience and capability to go after the powerful cartels.

We’ll find out soon enough whether Gálvez’s message resonates with enough Mexican voters to topple López Obrador’s protégé.

Whoever wins, though, will have a difficult task ahead.

We must not ignore what’s happening in Mexico.  

After all, our futures are intertwined, and not just by a 2,000-mile border.

Elvia Díaz is editorial page editor for The Arizona Republic and azcentral, where this column first appeared. Reach her at elvia.diaz@arizonarepublic.com or follow her on X (formerly Twitter): @elviadiaz1