With buyout money sky high, college football's coaching carousel shaping up to be slow

A mere 12 months ago, the college football industry braced for one of the largest coaching realignments in recent memory. A combustible mix of cash-flush schools, angry fan bases and antsy coaches fueled a series of moves that would ultimately result in 20% of the Power Five programs welcoming a new coach in 2018.

But this fall, college football is acting more like a New Year’s Eve partygoer nursing a hangover on the couch with a bottle of Pedialyte. Everyone, it seems, needs a break. 

In several conversations across the industry this week with people who spoke to USA TODAY Sports on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the topic, a consensus on what the coaching carousel might look like has begun to emerge. Though Kansas got things started by making its long-anticipated firing of David Beaty official, the primary driver of college coaching movement is more likely to be the NFL than a rush of high-profile schools deciding it’s time for a change. 

Part of that slowdown is, quite simply, related to money. Though some athletics directors are finally admitting the industry has been fiscally irresponsible in giving coaches guaranteed buyouts that reach into the tens of millions, they are undoubtedly an effective deterrent to schools that might otherwise have a quick trigger. 

Buyouts loom large this year, in particular, at Southern California, Auburn and North Carolina, none of which are expected to change coaches despite disappointing seasons and growing fan unease.

One year after handing Gus Malzahn a 7-year, $49 million contract (about 75% of which was guaranteed), Auburn was never realistically going to fire him, something athletics director Allen Greene confirmed this week to Auburn Undercover. 

Though the Trojans do not seem headed back to elite program status imminently under Clay Helton, Southern Cal extended him after last season’s Pac-12 championship and would owe him a boatload of money, though how much exactly is unclear because his contract isn’t public. Some informed speculation in the industry puts the number above $15 million. Either way, athletics director Lynn Swann is not likely to make a change — though we’ll see how much the temperature changes if USC loses to UCLA and Notre Dame to end the season. 

North Carolina, meanwhile, is a job a number of rising coaches would be interested in. But even though Larry Fedora is 4-16 over the past two seasons, those familiar with the situation do not anticipate that North Carolina will spend the required $12.2 million to get out of his contract. 

If those three schools stand pat, where will the movement come from? 

Here are some pressure points that could tilt the carousel one way or the other:

The NFL

With pro teams moving toward college concepts offensively and wanting to extract maximum value from young, cheap quarterbacks by playing them early, there is expected to be more interest than usual in college coaches. 

Though Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley will be a hot name for the Cleveland Browns job, particularly given his connection to Baker Mayfield, it’s a long shot that he’ll actually leave Oklahoma. Another college name that has bounced around the rumor mill for Cleveland is Iowa State’s Matt Campbell, an Ohio native with deep roots in the state. Baylor’s Matt Rhule got an interview in Indianapolis last year, and the program’s improvement this season (the Bears are 5-4 going into the final three games) could inspire teams to take another look. 

Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh will be connected to NFL openings every year until he finally takes one. And with Notre Dame currently 9-0 and possibly playoff bound, expect another round of NFL speculation to hit Brian Kelly, who has established impressive stability in South Bend after some turbulent seasons.

Stanford’s David Shaw has shown no real inclination to make the jump to the NFL to this point, but it’s worth asking if the program has gotten a little stale of late. 

Jeff Brohm’s decision

With Louisville sinking deeper into the abyss every week, it becomes increasingly difficult to imagine a scenario where Bobby Petrino returns in 2019. The play here for Louisville is no secret. Purdue’s Jeff Brohm is a rising star and a favorite son, and the pull to go home (particularly for his family and those around him) will be significant. By the same token, don't be surprised if Brohm winds up on some NFL lists — remember, he was a backup quarterback in the league for nearly a decade — or becomes the primary target for Notre Dame or Ohio State, should either of those jobs come open. 

In other words, Brohm is going to have some options, a reality that is not lost on Purdue athletics director Mike Bobinski. While there’s always a chance he could stay, Purdue’s financial limits will be tested here if Louisville comes in aggressively after Brohm at the end of the season. 

Even in the worst-case scenario for Purdue, however, Brohm showed that it’s possible to win there, and with so few schools making changes, the Boilermakers could end up as one of the better jobs on the market. 

The state of Kansas 

Make no mistake, Jeff Long was hired this summer as athletics director for one reason: To fix football. So to think that he hasn’t spent the last few months working diligently on a plan to place Beaty would be foolish. 

Multiple people familiar with Long’s thinking insist his focus has been on experienced head coaches who are not working this season and that an announcement on a replacement could come well before the end of the season. That would allow the new staff to get a running start in recruiting, particularly with the December signing period playing such a big factor now in coaching changes. 

The early speculation has focused on former LSU coach Les Miles, and for good reason. Miles and Long overlapped at Michigan in the late 1980s/early 1990s, and Long targeted Miles in 2012 when he was the athletics director at Arkansas (Miles got a contract extension, and Long ended up hiring Bret Bielema). 

Another name to watch here is former Arizona State coach Todd Graham, who is an established winning college coach and would bring an exciting offense plus Texas recruiting ties. Other coaches who fit the profile include Butch Jones and Gene Chizik.

This could be a rare year where both Kansas and Kansas State change coaches.

Though 79-year old Bill Snyder has amassed the power to hang on as long as he wants, his window of opportunity to stage a graceful exit is becoming smaller. Nobody will say it publicly because Snyder is such a legend, but there’s been real fear about Snyder making his retirement a protracted behind-the-scenes fight, contingent on his son Sean being named his successor. 

With Kansas State now 3-6 overall and 1-5 in the Big 12, longtime Kansas City Star columnist Vahe Gregorian called on Snyder to step down this week, and there seems to be more momentum behind the idea that this will be his last season. But until he announces it publicly, you never know. 

Bielema, a former K-State defensive coordinator, could be a fit here. North Dakota State’s Chris Klieman, who has three FCS national titles, has a strong connection to Wildcats athletics director Gene Taylor. 

Other nuggets

- Nobody has a great grasp of what’s going on at Maryland, where Matt Canada is 5-4 as the interim coach. Given how poorly the school handled DJ Durkin’s ouster and the uncertainty surrounding key figures at the school, including athletics director Damon Evans, anything from retaining Canada to cleaning house completely is in play. 

- Georgia Tech (5-4) has stabilized after an awful start, but the last three games are all tough. Paul Johnson’s buyout is a reasonable $4 million, and there hasn’t been much juice around the program lately. How the Yellow Jackets finish could set the mood at a school that intrigues a lot of coaches. 

- Colorado may be worth keeping an eye on. The Buffaloes have lost four in a row after a 5-0 start and have a fairly tough close. There has been tension at times between coach Mike MacIntyre and athletics director Rick George over the years, according to people with insight into the program, but the $10 million buyout will make it difficult to change coaches even if there’s a complete collapse. 

- Vanderbilt is on the verge of hiring an athletics director, likely within the next week or so, which could determine how the football program is evaluated. Derek Mason (22-36 overall, 7-30 SEC) has some winnable games to finish the season and perhaps get Vanderbilt to a bowl game for the second time in his five seasons. That could be important in forming a first impression for the new boss. 

- Some Group of Five jobs that agents are keeping an eye on include East Carolina, Western Kentucky, Charlotte, UNLV and Middle Tennessee.