Assumptions in college football are presumptuous
- Stanford took care of any thoughts Oregon's offense was unstoppable
- Heisman favorites have faded just as quickly as their stars ascended
- Notre Dame has swept through a schedule that was thought to be too daunting
First, some words of wisdom from Collin Klein, former Heisman Trophy frontrunner:
"It's why you play the games.''
Ain't that the truth, in the new world where old world power Notre Dame is No. 1 again?
We should have learned by now. We haven't. We stock the middle of the college football season with assumptions and theories and scenarios that never happen. And then one Saturday, everything crashes down and it is Thanksgiving week and the landscape is transformed, because so much of what we thought we knew, we didn't.
We assumed the Oregon offense was unstoppable.
It wasn't.
We presumed Kansas State would never make mistakes to help beat itself.
It would.
We believed that, finally, the Southestern Conference had run out of national championship chances.
It hasn't.
We presupposed Alabama's hopes for a title defense were dead.
They aren't. "Everything is ahead of us as a team,'' Nick Saban said after the scrimmage against Western Carolina. When he talks, we should listen.
We guessed Notre Dame would be on the outside looking in, its noses pressed to the Bowl Championship Series window. An ancient, faded dynasty with too many modern obstacles to ever truly return to power.
The Irish are No. 1, with, as Brian Kelly said Sunday, ``just the feeling now that you're included in the race for a championship.''
And as for those obstacles, `` I have not seen anything here in my time that will not allow us to continue to have the highest graduation rate and compete for a national championship, and I've been doing it 22 years. So I think I know what it looks like if you couldn't do it.''
We agreed it was Klein's Heisman to lose.
He probably just lost it.
The past weekend was a primer on how September was a liar, in ways big and small.
Southern California (now 7-4) was No. 2 after the first week. West Virginia (5-5) was No. 8. Arkansas (4-7) was No. 10. Michigan State (5-6) was No. 11. Virginia Tech (5-6) was No. 18.
You had to go down to No. 22 to find Notre Dame.
Stanford and Baylor faced question-mark seasons. How do you replace NFL draft darlings Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III?
Their replacements just took out the top two ranked teams in the country.
Penn State was facing disaster, its symbol of post-scandal futility a kicker named Sam Ficken, who missed four of five field goal attempts in a loss to Virginia and was kicked to the curb by Twitter.
The Nittany Lions just went to 7-4. Ficken just made his seventh consecutive kick.
Matt Barkley was the Heisman favorite.
His star-crossed USC season probably just ended with a shoulder injury.
Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson was another contender.
He was at running back Saturday.
Geno Smith became the hot name.
West Virginia just lost five in a row for the first time in 26 years.
Then Klein. He had three interceptions in his first 10 games.
He had three in two quarters at Baylor.
So what do we know this week that might turn out wrong by next week?
We assume the BCS will go 1970s retro and Notre Dame will play Alabama for the national championship. The Nielsen numbers would get a kick out of that.
We presume USC is too down and too beaten up to upset the Irish. That Auburn has no prayer against the Tide, and Georgia can't stop them in the SEC championship game. That Alabama, thus reprieved, won't make the same mistakes twice.
We think Ohio State will finish unbeaten, because Urban Meyer has too much good karma to lose his first time up at home against Michigan. "We have a saying,'' he said after escaping Wisconsin in overtime. "A team that refuses to be beat won't be beat.'' And then news media voters in the Associated Press poll will have restless moments wondering what to do if Ohio State ends up the only unbeaten.
We presuppose that Florida State will defeat Florida and then loudly make its BCS case as the anti-Alabama. But in their hearts, the Seminoles will still be asking themselves how they ever blew that 16-point lead against North Carolina State, since the loss to the 6-5 Wolfpack will keep too many voters away.
We're guessing the Heisman race has turned into a 100-meter dash, with nobody really ahead as they near the finish.
That some will go back to Smith with his 35-5 touchdown-interception ratio and decide it is not his fault the West Virginia defense is lousy — even if it is hard to imagine the Heisman winner with a five-game losing streak.
And some will go with Ohio State's Braxton Miller as the main reason for an 11-0 record, never mind the occasional passing flaws or the team probation.
And some will see this as a chance to do something different with their ballot. Go defense, speaking of Notre Dame linebacker Manti Te'o. Or choose the young guy in Texas A&M freshman Alabama-killer Johnny Manziel, or the little guy in Northern Illinois' do-everything quarterback, Jordan Lynch.
In a case like this, voters are often moved most by what they see last, so the final games could swing the election. In the suddenly remade landscape of 2012 college football, nothing represents the contrary winds of November more than the Heisman race.
We thought we knew so much. Then came Saturday.
Reviews of the week
Four stars ...
— Vanderbilt. Lots of Commodore barriers broken in 41-18 thrashing of Tennessee. Biggest win against the Vols since 1954, first win at home against Tennessee since 1982, and five SEC victories in a season for the first time since 1935. "I know how much this means to our fans. I know how much this means to our alumni,'' coach James Franklin said. Not to mention to the prospects of Tennessee coach Derek Dooley, who was fired Sunday.
— Stanford. How to stop Oregon's offense? Give the Ducks the football only 22 minutes. They can't score from the bench. The Cardinal could have beaten Notre Dame, too. Stanford is the unanimous choice for best two-loss team in the nation.
Three stars ...
— Nebraska. The Cornhuskers finish perfect at home for the 41st time, but the first since 2001. Nice touch having retiring athletics director Tom Osborne lead the team out.
— Baylor. The 5-5 record is still not dazzling, but the Bears hadn't beaten a No. 2 ranked team since 1956.
— Tavon Austin. West Virginia receiver gets moved to running back and gains 344 yards in loss to Oklahoma.
— Temple's Montel Harris. One running back, seven touchdowns.
One star ...
— Oklahoma defense. Yeah, the Sooners won at West Virginia. But 778 yards allowed qualifies for sieve-dom.
Stat of the week
Michigan State's seven Big Ten games have been decided by a total of 20 points. The Spartans have lost five of them.
QUOTEBOOK (stunned losers edition)
"It is times like this that you wish you would have the right words to say to take the pain away, but there are no words to do that.'' — Oregon coach Chip Kelly.
"We are going to be tremendously disappointed and the sooner the better that will turn into anger, and then it will be time to put this behind us.'' — Kansas State coach Bill Snyder.
"How many losses like this do we have to go through? I don't know.'' — West Virginia coach Dana Holgorsen, after the Mountaineers were beaten in the final seconds by Oklahoma, 50-49.
"To me, that is unheard of.'' — Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio, on the Spartans losing five home games.
"We're too talented to have that many losses.'' — USC coach Lane Kiffin, on the 7-4 Trojans.