Trout, Dickey hold keys to 2012 fantasy league titles

• Angels rookie who began the season in the minors will finish as the AL's top-rated fantasy player
• Drafted outside the top 250, Mets knuckleballer has been 2012's most valuable fantasy pitcher
• Rays closer Fernando Rodney went undrafted in all but the deepest leagues, but ranks 14th overall

In a poll conducted last week at BaseballHQ.com, 75% of respondents who had Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout on their fantasy teams are in fifth place or better.

Fifty-five percent are no lower than third. Thirty percent will win their league.

These results are consistent with past surveys. Surprise breakout performances have a disproportionate effect on who will win your league.

According to Mock Draft Central's average draft position (ADP) rankings, nine of this season's top 30 players were ranked outside the top 200 on draft day. These are the ones who have likely impacted the most fantasy races.

Trout tops the list. He was ineligible to be drafted in many leagues because he did not make the Angels' Opening Day roster. Still, on speculation alone, his ADP was No. 228.

That speculation will win many leagues this year. Trout will finish at No. 1 or at worst, No. 2 behind Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun.

The top-rated pitcher this year has been knuckleballer R.A. Dickey of the New York Mets. Most analysts had projected continued regression for this 37-year-old, as shown by his ADP of 251.

He is currently ranked fifth among all players in Roto value.

Injuries always seemed to sidetrack the growth curve of Edwin Encarnacion of the Toronto Blue Jays. His ADP of 280 was a reflection of that risk, though many analysts had just tired of waiting for a potential breakout.

It came this year. He is ranked tenth.

White Sox outfielder Alex Rios was among baseball's most disappointing players in 2011. There was little promise of a rebound in 2012, let alone a career year. But that's just what he did.

Rios is ranked 11th after coming into the season with an ADP of 218.

Perhaps the most confounding player this year has been Tampa Bay Rays' right-hander Fernando Rodney. He had lost closing roles several times in the past, but in 2012, he is on the brink of a potential record-breaking performance.

Rodney came into the season outside the top 300. He's currently ranked 14th.

Third baseman Chase Headley was a rising prospect in the San Diego Padres system, hitting 42 home runs at three levels in 2007-2008. However, he had shown little growth in his first four years in the majors.

That changed this year. Headley came into the season ranked 243. He is now at No. 16.

Second baseman Aaron Hill's career looked to be heading south until he was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks last summer. But his strong finish could not lift his ADP higher than 258 this spring.

His career year currently has him ranked 28th.

Two more pitchers ranked outside the top 300 in March were Cincinnati Reds reliever Aroldis Chapman and Atlanta Braves right-hander Kris Medlen.

Chapman took over as closer in mid-May and never let go. He is ranked 29th.

Medlen joined the starting rotation on July 31 and has gone 9-0 with a sub-1.00 ERA. He is ranked 30th.

Ron Shandler is the founder of BaseballHQ.com, a USA TODAY Sports Media Group affiliate