Trout vs. Harper: Which rookie has the higher ceiling?

• Five-Year fantasy draft asks experts to take both current and future production into account
• Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun, 29, gets the nod as the top overall pick
• Angels rookie Mike Trout taken second overall, while Nationals phenom Bryce Harper goes ninth

PHOENIX – November really isn't prime fantasy baseball season, but don't tell that to the attendees at the 18th annual First Pitch Arizona fantasy symposium. The main drawing card was a chance to see Arizona Fall League baseball – and in particular, the Rising Stars Game – but one of the new twists at this year's event was the debut of a Five-Year Draft.

The idea, proposed and moderated by BaseballHQ.com founder Ron Shandler, was to have a panel of 12 fantasy experts conduct a draft in which each player had to be owned for the next five years.

The unique format forced the panelists to take both current and future production into account – which made for some interesting twists and turns as the draft unfolded.

Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun turns 29 on Saturday, but his "advanced" age didn't seem to be a deterrent to him going with the first overall pick. Not surprisingly, 2012 AL MVP front-runners Mike Trout (age 21) and Miguel Cabrera (age 29) were second and third off the board.

With many of the participants opting for the security of players in their peak years, the proceedings didn't look a whole lot different than a typical 2013 mixed-league draft … until the latter stages of the first round.

Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper was snapped up with the ninth pick (and a case can be made that the 20-year-old should have gone much earlier -- see below). Chicago Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro, 22, went 10th overall.

At age 32 and coming off his worst season in the majors, Los Angeles Angels first baseman Albert Pujols fell to the first pick of the second round.

The first pitchers selected -- Stephen Strasburg and Clayton Kershaw, both 24 – were snapped up with back-to-back picks in the middle of the second round.

Perhaps the most interesting part of the draft came in Round 4, when a pair of minor leaguers who've never played a day in the majors were taken consecutively. Texas Rangers shortstop Jurickson Profar, 19, was the 43rd overall selection and lightning-fast outfielder Billy Hamilton, 22, of the Cincinnati Reds went 44th. In fact, the Reds speedster was the first Hamilton taken in the Five-Year Draft – three spots ahead of free-agent slugger Josh Hamilton, who seems very likely to get at least a five-year deal on the open market.

Which Hamilton will be more valuable by the time 2017 arrives? Like the Five-Year Draft itself, the question provides the basis for some interesting discussion over the Hot Stove season.

-- Steve Gardner

The case for Harper

In this "league," it's important to emphasize that you're making a commitment to these players for the entire period. Still, most people seem so preoccupied with what has happened most recently.

Taking Braun first, I get. Mike Trout, who went second, I get ... but I wouldn't get. No way. I'd have taken Bryce Harper instead of Trout, and I think those who passed on Harper will regret it – even though Trout is coming off one of the five greatest seasons in the history of the game. Here's why:

Pedigree

Trout was an elite prospect with unquestionable All-Star potential, but Harper was tabbed as a once-in-a-lifetime prospect. Whose upside would you rather have?

Acumen

Trout is a bright youngster. He largely struggled in his initial exposure to major league pitching, which came in 2011, his age-19 season. Failure had been scarce for him. He learned from that disappointment, however, and by May of 2012, he'd clearly demonstrated that he had nothing to prove in the minor leagues.

Harper's baseball intellect is rare. He applies lessons cultivated from previous experiences incredibly quickly. He debuted on the same date in 2012 that the Angels called up Trout. Harper didn't succeed right away in his age-19 season, but he adapted relatively rapidly and didn't require a demotion. He has already faced adversity at multiple levels and has conquered it on each occasion - swiftly. Perhaps contrary to perception, he's extremely receptive to instruction and absorbs knowledge like a paper towel does water.

Expected production

Trout's 2012 numbers are practically certain to regress in 2013, and, as panel moderator Ron Shandler stressed to attendees, this past campaign was extremely likely to be the Halo's career year. (A "99% chance," Shandler said.) Although evaluators agreed that Trout was capable of production fairly close to that level at his peak, he hadn't yet produced in the minors at the pace he did once he reached the majors this year and wasn't considered likely to do so yet.

Trout's monumental season in a sense overshadowed Harper's thoroughly impressive 2012 campaign, which is a little surprising when one considers that Harper received so much attention for things besides his statistics. The Nats' ultimate foundation didn't make history, but he didn't do anything ... unexpected.

Injury risk

Trout's play in the outfield is super-heroic but is seemingly close to abandon. He's been watching too much highlight footage of Torii Hunter.

Harper plays with similar energy but is a little more under control. Each player may have a sense of indestructibility, but Harper doesn't appear to be as willing to test his threshold for pain so often.

-- Nicholas Minnix writes for KFFL.com, a USA TODAY Sports Media Group property

Which player would you rather have for the next five years? Who will have the better major league career? Will Trout ever match or surpass his 2012 numbers? Post your comments below.