Fantasy studs, duds: Stafford, Ingram poised to deliver
The fantasy football championship: It's been your goal since August, now it's here. Time to take calculated risks by starting some boom candidates and kicking potential busts to the curb. Let's bring home the title.
STUDS
QB Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions: He stumbled against the Minnesota Vikings last Sunday but averaged 350.5 yards over the previous two contests — one of which came against the Bears on Thanksgiving (390 yards, 2 TDs). Stafford's road woes shouldn't concern you against the defense that has yielded the most fantasy points to quarterbacks all year and has been a top-five matchup in the last three weeks.
RB Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints: Ingram salvaged an underwhelming 59-yard effort Monday night with a touchdown, he but should be looking forward to Sunday. The Atlanta Falcons have allowed the most fantasy points to running backs. There shouldn't be much defense on either side here, and Ingram will find plenty of spots to overpower a defense that only uses two linebackers in its base setup.
WR Julian Edelman, New England Patriots: Though he put out a dud in the first meeting with the New York Jets (four catches, 44 yards), Edelman has hauled in at least seven passes in five of the seven games since. He also has eight-plus targets in each of his last six outings. The Jets have allowed wideouts from Buffalo, Minnesota and Tennessee put up excellent fantasy numbers the last few weeks. Edelman should have a much better performance against them this time.
TE Dwayne Allen, Indianapolis Colts: Allen has just seven targets in his first two games back from injury, but he found the end zone in Week 15. Even if Coby Fleener remains heavily involved, Allen should present a problem inside the red zone. The Dallas Cowboys are tied for the most points per game allowed to tight ends in point-per-reception (PPR) setups.
WR Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jackson has been targeted 27 times in the last two games, catching 16 of them for 229 yards. Though QB Josh McCown has been brutal, the Bucs will have to throw often to keep pace with a Green Bay Packers offense that's looking to make a statement after last week's debacle. V-Jax's big workload should continue.
DUDS
WR DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans: The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has been vulnerable for most of the year, but what happens if you don't have a competent quarterback? Thaddeus Lewis? Case Keenum? Blech. Hopkins is a playmaker, but it's hard to expect much from him if his quarterback is going to struggle throwing downfield.
RB Andre Williams, New York Giants: Even if Rashad Jennings (ankle) doesn't suit up, this isn't a good week to use Williams. the St. Louis Rams have been a negative opponent for running backs for most of the year. Maybe he'll scratch and claw for a touchdown, but the Giants are more likely to attack the Rams through the air, and Williams doesn't do much of that.
WR Eric Decker, New York Jets: There's a chance the New England Patriots could put cornerback Darrelle Revis on Percy Harvin to eliminate the quicker option, but this defense on the whole should contain QB Geno Smith effectively. Anyone involved in catching passes from him already has enough trouble, and his owners would be wise not to expect another 100-yard performance like he had against Tennessee in Week 15.
RB Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Much of Martin's production in Week 15 came on a 63-yard scamper. The Green Bay Packers run defense has been much-improved lately, and since Tampa Bay will be throwing often to try to keep pace, Charles Sims probably will be more involved than usual. Martin is a flex play at best with a ghastly floor.
SLEEPERS
RB Toby Gerhart, Jacksonville Jaguars: Finally!? Gerhart, a preseason sleeper, has a new opportunity with Denard Robinson on injured reserve. It's hard not to love this dance against the Tennessee Titans, who've allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing backs in point-per-reception setups such as FantasyScore. If you're concerned about starting DeMarco Murray, Ryan Mathews or Frank Gore this week and don't own their handcuffs, ditch your anti-Gerhart bias and embrace a flex risk that could win your league championship.
WR Greg Jennings, Minnesota Vikings: Jennings has scored a touchdown in three of his last four games, and he hasn't seen fewer than five targets in any of those. He's not a dynamic playmaker, but he's a reliable PPR contributor who'll be under-appreciated in the most important fantasy week of the season. The Vikings' stalled run game has QB Teddy Bridgewater becoming a gunslinger, and the Miami Dolphins have been a top-10 matchup for wideouts in the last five weeks.
QB Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs: There aren't many times during a fantasy season to be excited about Smith, but this is one of them. The Pittsburgh Steelers have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Ike Taylor's injuries and poor play have helped decimate the secondary. We may even see a Chiefs wideout catch a touchdown for the first time in more than a year. For quarterback streamers, this is an ace play.
WR Cecil Shorts, Jacksonville Jaguars: Doubling down on Jags players? Yes, indeed. Shorts has 30 targets over the last three games, garnering at least eight in each. He only has caught 12 of them from Blake Bortles (foot), who might have to sit in favor of Chad Henne. Either way, the Titans are terrible. They've crumbled over the last few weeks as one of the most favorable pushovers for wide receivers.
RB C.J. Spiller or Bryce Brown, Buffalo Bills: Though Spiller is expected to return to the active roster, it doesn't necessarily mean he'll play a lot or at all, though. Brown would be a fine substitute in his place. In tandem with Fred Jackson, either would have a fine shot of trampling the Raiders, who have often been plagued by multiple running backs. They've given up the second most PPR fantasy points to running backs.