MLB 2020: Potential busts and players on the decline this season

In addition to all the excitement the upcoming 2020 MLB season will generate, there will inevitably be some disappointment.

It’s important to temper expectations with players who overachieved last season. In certain cases, there’s ample evidence to suggest their past performance does not guarantee future success.

There are also several players who may have seen their best days behind them. Although they could return to past glory, Father Time is a formidable opponent and the performance curve is tough to reverse.

FANTASY RANKINGS: Top 200 overall players in 2020

For fantasy baseball owners, these are players you should be avoiding in drafts – at least until the value is too good to resist.

Catcher

Risky: Salvador Perez, Royals – One of the most consistent sources of power among catchers for years, Perez missed all of 2019 due to Tommy John surgery. He’s expected to be back for opening day, but the Royals may limit the workload.

Slipping: Buster Posey, Giants – Injuries have played a big role, but the former NL MVP only has 12 home runs and a .715 OPS in his 803 at-bats over the past two seasons.

First base

Risky: Joey Votto, Reds – You figure he’ll rebound after the worst full season of his career, but are you confident enough to commit to the 36-year-old in 2020?

Slipping: Eric Hosmer, Padres – The final stat line was slightly better in Hosmer’s second year in San Diego, but the 30-year-old slashed just .237/.277/.396 after the All-Star break.

Second base

Risky: Kolten Wong, Cardinals – Had a terrific season in 2019, hitting .285 with 24 stolen bases, but it was the first time since 2015 that he played more than 127 games.

Slipping: Dee Gordon, Mariners – His steals (22 in 117 games) will always be valuable, but Gordon’s playing time continues to diminish to the point that he may not be worth a fantasy roster spot.

Shortstop

Risky: Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres – He’s obviously of the most talented players in baseball and should put up great numbers if healthy ... but is it worth risking with a high pick?

Slipping: Andrelton Simmons, Angels – Limited by injuries to 103 games, Simmons saw his OPS drop from .753 in 2017-2018 to .673 last season.

Third base

Risky: Gio Urshela, Yankees – The 28-year-old was a revelation for a team ravaged by injuries last season, but considering his track record (.705 OPS in 11 minor-league seasons), it seems unlikely he will be able to repeat in 2020.

Slipping: Maikel Franco, Royals – There’s a reason the Phillies cut Franco loose. He's a decent bet to hit 20-plus homers, but he’s going to drag down your team’s average if he’s a regular in your lineup.

Outfield

Risky: Aristides Aquino, Reds – The rookie set the league on fire last summer with 19 home runs in 56 games, but his path to regular playing time is uncertain with Nick Castellanos and Shogo Akiyama now in the mix.

Slipping: Wil Myers, Padres – Relegated to a part-time role last year, he figures to be in for a similar fate this season.

2020 BURNING QUESTIONS: Sign-stealing, juiced baseballs, speed sources and more

Starting pitcher

Risky: Mike Minor, Rangers – An All-Star in 2019, Minor had a 4.93 ERA in the second half and the workload could catch up to him, considering he hadn’t pitched 200 innings since 2013.

Slipping: Jon Lester, Cubs – The 36-year-old lefty had one of the worst seasons of his career in 2019, posting a 4.46 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Hard to see him bouncing back.

Relief pitcher

Risky: Craig Kimbrel, Cubs – We can chalk up some of his 2019 struggles (6.53 ERA in 23 games) to rust, but the 31-year-old may also be on a downward trajectory after a decade of heavy usage.

Slipping: Kenley Jansen, Dodgers – Coming off a season with a 3.71 ERA, and with Blake Treinen now in the picture, there could be calls for a timeshare in the ninth inning.