The Patriots' defense is bad. Here's why it won't matter at all
Just about anyone can throw on the New England Patriots.
That much was clear on Sunday night, when the Seattle Seahawks avenged their Super Bowl XLIX loss with a 31-24 win over the Patriots. Russell Wilson went 25-37 for 348 yards and 3 touchdowns, his finest performance of the season by a good margin.
And yes, Wilson is rounding into form after starting the season hampered by injury. He's moving finally, and the offensive line in front of him is playing decently, as opposed to abysmally, which is a step up. But just as important last night was the fact that the Patriots can't cover anyone on defense.
Luckily for the Patriots, it probably won't matter.
First, let's get to the part about the Patriots not being able to cover anyone. They can't. Their defense has been an issue all season. The team shipped off Pro Bowl linebacker Jamie Collins to the Browns partly due to the fact he was expecting a huge contract this offseason, but mostly because Bill Belichick knew things weren't working and needed to try and change something.
The Patriots are currently give up 260 yards per game in the air, good enough for 18th in the league. (That might be OK if they were stout against the run, but they're allowing a hair over 100 yards per game on the ground, 14th best in the league.) Football Outsiders' weighted defense rankings has the Patriots as the 26th best pass defense in the league.
The Patriots' troubles in coverage snowball into other issues. Look at this play on Sunday night which allowed the Seahawks to score. In an obvious passing down, the Patriots are worried about the Seahawks' receivers, so they only rush three. Wilson sidesteps the limited pressure, and even with all those players in coverage, Doug Baldwin finds an open pocket and scores easily.
Other than Malcolm Butler, the Patriots just haven't found any consistent answers in the secondary this season. Justin Coleman and Logan Ryan were targeted repeatedly on Sunday night, and the team's habit of rotating through players in the secondary suggests they're still searching for the right combination of guys to make this thing work.
And it's probably not going to matter, because the Patriots have the best offense in the league, and this is a weird, weird year in the NFL.
It's a weird year because we're in Week 10 and I'm still not convinced by any team in the league. They all have problems. The Patriots' defense is a mess. The Seahawks' offensive line at times looks like they're participating in the Mannequin Challenge. The Falcons' defense is a trainwreck. The Vikings are in free fall. The Broncos can't throw, the Raiders' defense is worse than the Patriots', and anyone can run on the Chiefs.
The Cowboys might be the best team in the NFL, and they're a couple Dak Prescott interceptions from a full-blown quarterback controversy.
The advanced stats don't know what to do with any of this either. Football Outsiders' Weighted DVOA Rankings, usually a good indicator of which teams are playing the best in the NFL, had the Eagles as the No. 1 team in the league entering the weekend. (They sort of lived up to it with a nice win over the Falcons, but I mean, the Eagles are 5-4.)
So, yeah, the Patriots can't cover anyone, but they're going to be fine. At least their issue is an identifiable one, and it's clear that they're working on it. They're experimenting with different coverages in game and trying anything to make it work, and they've got nearly half a season to go to figure it out.
They're also going to be fine because every team in the NFL is flawed this year, and the Patriots still have the best offense in the league. If you can do one thing extremely well, that might be enough.