Analysis: Wise Dan has competitors for horse of year

• Mile victor Wise Dan is one of many Breeders' Cup winners based in Kentucky
• Fort Larned, the winner of the $5 million Classic, merits consideration for older male champion
• Royal Delta, repeat winner in the Ladies Classic, must be considered for horse of the year

ARCADIA, Calif. -- The Eclipse Award dinner to crown North American horse racing's 2012 champions and Horse of the Year will be in Florida in January. The road went through Santa Anita Park for the Breeders' Cup World Championships. But Kentucky was the major connecting route.

Winners during the 15-race, two-day extravaganza came from all over, but no region had more success than the Bluegrass State. Churchill Downs-based horses won the $5 million Classic (Fort Larned), $3M Turf (Little Mike), $1M Filly & Mare Turf (Groupie Doll) and $500,000 Juvenile Sprint (Hightail), and Keeneland-based Wise Dan the $2M Mile.

The Classic, Turf and Mile outcomes stirred the debate about the year's outstanding performer. Eclipse voting is conducted by turf writers, Daily Racing Form staff and racetrack representatives.

The Charlie Lopresti-trained Wise Dan is the Horse of the Year front-runner after winning the $2M Breeders' Cup Mile by 1 1/2 lengths over 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom in course-record time.

Turf milers virtually never are voted Horse of the Year in America (though Lure was runner-up in 1993). But the 5-year-old gelding's versatility and consistency in a six-race campaign could change that. His résumé: three Grade I stakes and a Grade II on turf, a track-record on synthetic in Keeneland's Ben Ali and a loss in the Churchill Downs' Grade I Stephen Foster on dirt by only a head.

Wise Dan never ran on the same course twice, winning in Kentucky, New York, Canada and California. He had to run down a very fast Obviously while holding off a Derby winner and highly ranked Excelebration, which came in as the second-ranked horse in the world in the British ratings.

But if Wise Dan is the outstanding horse overall, is he automatically older male and male turf horse?

Fort Larned merits serious consideration as older male champion after winning the Classic by a half-length over the tenacious Mucho Macho Man. The two finished more than six lengths in front of third-place Flat Out, and weren't handed anything, with Fort Larned setting a testing pace and Mucho Macho Man pressing him throughout.

The Classic gave Fort Larned five wins in nine races this year, including Saratoga's Grade I Whitney and a pair of Grade III wins, third in the Grade I Jockey Club Gold Cup won by Flat Out and second in Churchill's Grade II Alysheba. At Gulfstream Park, he set a track record for 1 3/16 miles.

Many years, that résumé would be plenty to be at least a divisional champion. But in his only head-on competition with Wise Dan, Fort Larned finished eighth in the Stephen Foster. However, the older male championship in this country rewards excellence on dirt – it's why there's a separate turf category – unless there is no deserving horse.

"That's out of my control. I'm going to enjoy the race," Ian Wilkes, Fort Larned's trainer said of post-season honors. "If he gets an award, that's tremendous. We'd be so honored. But I'm not going to politick. But it's an interesting year, because you throw in Royal Delta, too."

Royal Delta was smashing in taking the $3 million Ladies' Classic over previously unbeaten My Miss Aurelia, also winning wire to wire in a change of tactics. She could be the unprecedented fourth consecutive filly or mare to capture top honors (Rachel Alexandra (2009), Zenyatta (2010) and Havre De Grace (2011). But the other winners all had at least one huge race against males in their campaigns, while Royal Delta did not run well in the Dubai World Cup in her only start outside her division.

When Little Mike made a strong case for male turf champ by winning the Turf by a half-length over the accomplished Point of Entry and 2011 victor St Nicholas Abbey, he likewise made a strong case as male turf champ.

The 5-year-old gelding won three of America's most important grass events: Churchill's 1 1/8-mile Woodford Reserve Turf Classic, the 1¼-mile Arlington Million and 1 1/2-mile Turf.

"I don't how anybody could beat Mike for turf champion," said his trainer, Dale Romans. "Wise Dan is a great racehorse. But I don't think his résumé stacks up to Mike's. I don't know how milers can win championships."

Since the advent of the Eclipse Awards, there has never been a Horse of the Year who wasn't also a divisional champion. But the categories are all separate votes, so it's possible that it could happen this year.

Wise Dan almost assuredly will win trophies in Florida in January. It's just a question of how many.

Rees writes for The (Louisville) Courier-Journal