Today could be Selection Saturday for Kentucky Derby

Churchill Downs is using a tiered points system based on 34 races to determine how horses earn their way into the May 3 Kentucky Derby if more than 20 are entered. Saturday's races are the last two offering a 100-40-20-10 scale to the top four finishers.

Points leaders: 150 – California Chrome; 120 – Vicar's in Trouble; 102 – Wicked Strong; 100 – Samraat, Constitution; 95 – Hoppertunity; 93 – Intense Holiday; 90 – Wildcat Red; 60 – We Miss Artie; 54 – Chitu; 52 – Midnight Hawk; 50 – Ring Weekend; 42 – Tapiture; 40 – General a Rod; 30 – Candy Boy; 24 – Cairo Prince, Uncle Sigh; 20 – Vinceremos, Harry's Holiday, Commanding Curve, Social Inclusion.

Call it Selection Saturday. Because with Saturday's $1 million Arkansas Derby and $750,000 Toyota Blue Grass, it's the last real chance for horses to earn their way into the Kentucky Derby.

Those on the bubble are going to pull for horses that already have more points, for instance, Arkansas Derby favorite Tapiture, and against talented horses such as Arkansas Derby second choice Bayern and Blue Grass favorite Bobby's Kitten, who have no points and need first or second place to be assured Derby entry.

Two spots opened up with both UAE Derby winner Toast of New York and Louisiana Derby fourth-place finisher Albano declared out of Derby consideration. Right now 21 horses have at least 20 points, including four with 20. The tie-breaker is overall earnings in unrestricted stakes.

Blue Grass: Ramsey seeks Derby trio

Bobby's Kitten is one of the best grass horses of his generation, having been a good third, with an excuse, in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. He's the Blue Grass' 3-1 favorite as he races on a synthetic surface for the first time. Should he be first or second, owner Ken Ramsey will take his chances on dirt in the Derby.

Ramsey is going for his third victory in a 1 1/8-mile Derby prep, with We Miss Artie taking Turfway Park's Spiral and Vicar's in Trouble the Louisiana Derby to secure Kentucky Derby starting berths.

"Everybody is going to wonder will he like the dirt or won't like the dirt," Ramsey said. "We've got a dirt horse in Vicar's in Trouble. We got a turf horse in Bobby's Kitten and we got a synthetic horse, We Miss Artie. If the track over there is sloppy or good or whatever, maybe one of them will wind up liking it.

"… I think we have a huge shot. I love the post position (5). The horse is doing well. I think we're going to get in the Derby with him."

Trainer Chad Brown said if Bobby's Kitten runs well in the Blue Grass to get enough points for the Derby, the colt would ship to Churchill Downs to train and work "and decide from there where he'd fit. But first things first. Although my horse has been very consistent and impressive on the grass, this race is coming up very tough."

Bobby's Kitten was named after the late Bobby Frankel, for whom Brown was an assistant. Ramsey and Brown were waiting for an extremely talented horse to carry the Hall of Fame trainer's first name. The great European horse Frankel also was named by Juddmonte Farms for the trainer.

"This horse was initially named Payday Kitten," Ramsey said. "We had another horse, (and) Chad said, 'I can't pick out which one we should change to Bobby.' I said, 'Work them five furlongs together head-and-head and let's decide.' This horse outworked him about three lengths, so we said, 'We've got Bobby's Kitten.'

"… Probably one of the greatest horses in Europe maybe the whole century was named Frankel. I thought since he got the surname over there, Frankel, it would be nice if we could have a Kentucky Derby winner bearing his first name."

The Blue Grass brings together a blend of turf horses, synthetic horses and even some dirt horses. Perhaps not all of the 15 horses in the overflow field are capable of winning. But they sure are eligible to hit the board in a terrific betting race tailor-made for 10-cent superfectas.

Among the possibilities:

Vinceremos, with a win in the Sam Davis and second in the Tampa Bay Derby, has never raced on Polytrack but worked well over it when sold as a 2-year-old at Keeneland.

"I particularly like the way in a synthetic race that the field is more tightly bunched," said Randy Gullatt, manager of co-owner Twin Creeks Racing. "It's harder for a good horse to get away. This horse is such a fighter, we thought if we can keep him close and not let a horse get away from him – in the Tampa Bay Derby that horse (victorious front-runner Ring Weekend) got loose and too far away for us to catch him – that's really rare on a synthetic race."

Vinceremos' Todd Pletcher-trained stablemate Gala Award has three strong efforts in three starts on turf.

California invader Dance With Fate was a very close second in the El Camino Real Derby at 1 1/8 miles.

Harry's Holiday, a $30,000 claim owned by Louisville's Terry Raymond and Skychai Racing, lost the Spiral by a nose.

Asserting Bear (the pick at 15-1 of Equibase's national handicapper Ellis Starr) was flying at the end of the Spiral, finishing fourth.

Extrasexyhippzster (the pick at 15-1 of BRISnet's Ed DeRosa) is bred to handle synthetic and looks like a player if you throw out his bad Gotham.

Coastline lost the Spiral by a head when third and has a sparkling work over the Polytrack.

Note: It would be fitting if longshot Casiguapo finished second. The Delta Jackpot runner-up was bred by the University of Kentucky.

Arkansas Derby: Tapiture, Bayern ones to beat

Rebel runner-up Tapiture is 9-5 and the exciting 2-for-2 Bayern is 2-1 in the morning line but figure to be more heavily favored as the field shrinks to eight with the expected scratch of maiden-winner Knock Em Flat. Tapiture will be ridden for the first time by Joel Rosario, who won last year's Derby on Orb. He replaces Ricardo Santana, who won the Kentucky Jockey Club and Southwest on Tapiture.

"With how important a race this is, and with Joel wanting the mount, this provided us a unique opportunity," trainer Steve Asmussen told Oaklawn's publicity department. "We're trying to give him the best chance to win the Kentucky Derby. We're dreaming the Derby dream, just like everyone else."

The Bob Baffert-trained Bayern marks the third straight Saturday that an unraced 2-year-old will try to win a Grade I Derby prep in its stakes debut and third start, following Florida Derby winner Constitution and Wood third-place finisher Social Inclusion.

Three providing excellent value:

Commissioner (8-1) was well-regarded when beating Top Billing in a 1 1/8-mile allowance race at Gulfstream. He was sixth over a speed-biased track for the Fountain of Youth and third after bobbling at the start at the Sunland Derby.

Ride On Curlin (12-1) never runs a bad race.

Conquest Titan (10-1) gets one more chance to live up to the barn's high expectations.

Toyota Blue Grass (GI)

Post time: Saturday at 5:45 p.m. ET at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Ky. Purse: $750,000. Distance: 1 1/8 miles (Polytrack). Television: Fox Sports 1, TVG. Radio: Horse Racing Radio Network, WLXO-96.1 in Lexington, Sirius/XM and horseracingradio.net.

Field: Asserting Bear, 15-1; Extrasexyhippzster, 15-1; Pablo Del Monte, 12-1; Harry's Holiday, 10-1; Bobby's Kitten, 3-1; Coltimus Prime, 20-1; Casiguapo, 30-1; Dance With Fate, 12-1; Big Bazinga, 20-1; So Lonesome, 50-1; Coastline, 8-1; Vinceremos, 8-1; Medal Count, 9-2; Gala Award, 5-1; Divine Oath (AE) 12-1.

Arkansas Derby (GI)

Post time: 7:07 p.m. ET at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark. Purse: $1 million. Distance: 1 1/8 miles. Television: TVG, HRTV. Radio: Horse Racing Radio Network, WLXO-96.1 in Lexington, Sirius/XM and horseracingradio.net.

Field: Danza, 15-1; Knock Em Flat, 20-1; Tapiture, 9-5; Ride On Curlin, 12-1; Thundergram, 30-1; Commissioner, 8-1; Conquest Titan, 10-1; Bayen, 2-1; Strong Mandate, 9-2;