Rating the potential NL playoff rotations

Bob Nightengale, USA TODAY Sports

The Reds’ Johnny Cueto, who had not won more than 12 games in a season, has blossomed this year.

USA TODAY Sports sizes up the potential playoff rotations
The Reds have five starters who made 30 starts
The Nationals are without Stephen Strasburg

If pitching truly rules the postseason, consider these playoffs a crapshoot. The five teams likely to comprise the field in the National League include several with rotation mysteries. USA TODAY Sports' Bob Nightengale take a crack at sizing them up (statistics through Sunday):

1. Reds

Projected rotation: Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo, Matt Latos, Homer Bailey

Forecast: The Reds have five starters who made 30 starts and four who pitched at least 200 innings. Cueto has emerged as a 19-game winner and true ace. Arroyo has been steady and Bailey is coming off a no-hitter, but scouts think Latos is the best pitcher on the staff these days and could be the key to any series.

2. Giants

Projected rotation: Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito

Forecast: Zito has been pitching his best since joining the team in 2007, and Cain has been a force all season. But the rest of the rotation has been erratic. Bumgarner has yielded at least four earned runs in five of his last seven starts. He should start Game2 at home, where he is 10-3 and has given up five of his 23 home runs. The key might be Lincecum, the two-time Cy Young Award winner, who has improved in the second half and has the credentials of being a monster in the postseason.

3. Nationals

Projected rotation: Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detwiler, Edwin Jackson

Forecast: The playoffs are beginning, but the decision to shut down ace Stephen Strasburg could resonate. Gonzalez might be the favorite to win the Cy Young Award with his 21 victories, but it's a drop-off now after he and Zimmermann. Jackson is 1-2 with a 7.92 ERA this month. The Nationals would love to clinch the best record to make sure Gonzalez pitches on his normal five days' rest Sunday.

4. Braves

Projected rotation: Kris Medlen, Tim Hudson, Mike Minor, Paul Maholm

Forecast: Scouts think this team could be the playoff surprise, provided they survive a likely wild-card game. Medlen has been unconscious, with the Braves winning 23 consecutive games in his starts. He's 9-0 with a 0.97 ERA in 12 starts. Keep an eye on Minor. He is 4-0 with a 0.87 ERA in his last five starts, yielding a 2.21 ERA and .195 opponents' batting average in 15 starts since the end of June.

5. Cardinals

Projected rotation: Kyle Lohse, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia

Forecast: Lohse has had the finest season of his career, going 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA and yielding three earned runs or fewer in 28 of 33 starts. Yet he has to rely on his defense with 143 strikeouts in 211 innings. If Lohse can win the one-game wild-card, the Braves will have plenty of experience in a short series with Wainwright and the return of Carpenter. But Wainwright is coming off Tommy John elbow surgery and has shown signs of fatigue, and Carpenter has made just two starts.

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