Ortiz: Nationals rotation will overcome Cardinals bats

• Nationals rotation the difference, even without Strasburg
• Cardinals have won nine of last 12 games
• Nationals have explosive offense; hit 194 home runs

The NL Division Series: St. Louis Cardinals-Washington Nationals

The Case for the Cardinals: Just like last year, St. Louis is a hot team going into the Division Series, having won nine of its last 12, including the wild-card game. The defending World Series champions are loaded with players who have playoff experience and know how to keep their poise under the October glare. The Cardinals compiled a .787 on-base-plus-slugging percentage against left-handers, second best in the NL, and would face a lefty starter three times if the series goes to five games. They enjoyed great success this season against Nationals starters Jordan Zimmermann, Edwin Jackson and Ross Detwiler.

The Case for the Nationals: Even though Zimmerman, Jackson and Detwiler each had ERAs over 7.50 against St. Louis, their body of work shows they're more than capable of silencing any opponent. And staff ace Gio Gonzalez, who could start two games, shut out the Cardinals in his lone start against them on Aug. 31. The Nats' rotation is rested and set the way they want, save for not having Stephen Strasburg, whereas St. Louis had to use its best starter, Kyle Lohse, in the wild-card game and won't send him out again until a possible Game 4. Washington also has one of the most explosive offenses in the NL, ranking second with 194 home runs.

The Swing Game: The Game 2 matchup of Zimmermann against St. Louis lefty Jaime Garcia could have the most impact. The Cardinals can't afford to head to Washington down 2-0, and beating Gonzalez in Game 1 will be a tough task. But they scored 11 runs in 10 innings covering two games against Zimmermann, so they have to like their chances in Game 2. Garcia won his last three starts of the season, one of them against the NL Central champion Cincinnati Reds, but was hammered for six earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in his one outing against Washington.

Player to watch: Drew Storen. After saving 43 games in 2011, Storen missed the first 3½ months of the season recovering from April surgery to remove a bone chip from his elbow. By the time he returned, Tyler Clippard had taken over as closer, so Storen pitched in a setup role. When Clippard faltered late in the season, Storen went back to his old duties. He had a brilliant September (1.35 ERA) and could play a key role in October.

The Verdict: Washington's rotation is so deep and talented, Strasburg's 3.16 ERA ranked third. The Nationals might miss him later on in the playoffs, but they have enough to get past St. Louis without him. Ryan Zimmerman, Adam LaRoche, Bryce Harper, Ian Desmond and the rest of Washington's balanced offense should do some damage against the Cardinals staff. Nationals in four.