White: Yankees to spoil Orioles' dream season

• The Yankees have more talent, depth
• Chris Davis is red-hot for the Orioles
• Keep an eye on Mark Teixeira, a Maryland native

The AL Division Series: Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees

The Case for the Yankees: They have more talent. They're deeper. They're more experienced. That should translate to lopsided. But enough Yankees have played below expectations, at least in spurts, to make them vulnerable. Power from Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira would help, but the Yankees have other means of winning – including the smaller-ball abilities of Derek Jeter and Ichiro Suzuki. Add a red-hot Robinson Cano and they can score enough as long as CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte hold up the pitching end of the bargain in the first two games. Do that and they make the statement quickly that talent eventually wins out.

The Case for the Orioles: They're beyond awe, internally at least. They've had 18 head-to-head games to understand how they can match up with the Yankees, beating everyone in the New York playoff rotation except Andy Pettitte, who they didn't face. The bullpen difference can be crucial – the first time that's tilted against the Yankees since Mariano Rivera was a minor leaguer. The free-swinging Orioles can tap into another factor that usually goes the Yankees' way, the cozy ballparks. It doesn't take that many mistake pitches for the likes of Chris Davis and Mark Reynolds to suddenly turn around a game.

The Swing Game: Game 2 will determine if ballgames or mind games are more important as this series goes back to New York. The Yankees narrowly dodged the Texas-sized embarrassment – and the Rangers' ultimate worst-case result – of blowing a division lead to a team carrying the perception of not being in the same league. The Orioles proved by splitting the 18-game season series that they belong, but few Yankees are convinced they should have lost last year's Division Series to Detroit or the 2010 ALCS to Texas. Game 2 always is pivotal in a five-game series, but more so in this year's 2-3 format. The Yankees could find themselves going home in total command or under incredible pressure.

Player to Watch: Yankees players are used to playing the villain role on the road. In Baltimore, nobody will be more vilified than Mark Teixeira – unless Jeffrey Maier scores a front-row seat in the outfield at Camden Yards. Maryland native Teixeira still gets the Baltimore chops-busting for signing with a team that had been to 13 of the previous 14 postseasons rather than a 93-loss, 0-for-a-decade-of-playoffs-missed hometown team. But the $180 million question (OK, just $22.5M for this year) is whether the first baseman and his ailing calf are up to providing significant offense. Manager Joe Girardi says power-challenged Alex Rodriguez doesn't necessarily have to break out of his slump for the Yankees to win. That might not be true for Teixeira.

The Verdict: When the Orioles won their first three games of the season, then lost their next three – to the Yankees – there was a general sigh across baseball, accompanied by the sentiment, "There, natural order has been restored." Now, 157 games later, Baltimore continues to defy or disprove logic, or at least conventional wisdom. So, we'll look at the overall talent levels and depth of the two teams and take one more stab at what should make sense: Yankees in 4.