World Series analysis: Who has the edge?
- USA TODAY breaks down the World Series matchups
- The Giants hunt-and-peck attack hails from the same town that gave us football's West Coast offense
- The Tigers are all about power, from their starting pitchers to their sluggers
This 108th World Series will be a clash of contrasts from the very first inning, during which Barry Zito (average fastball: 85 mph) and Justin Verlander (95 mph) will show there's vastly different ways to befuddle major league hitters.
Yes, the Detroit Tigers are all about power, from their four stellar starting pitchers to their history-making sluggers on the infield corners.
The San Francisco Giants? Well, their hunt-and-peck attack hails from the same town that gave us football's West Coast offense. But who has the edge?
USA TODAY Sports' Bob Nightengale, John Perrotto, Paul White go deep to find the answer (AL and NL scouts talked on condition of anonymity because of competitive reasons).
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TIGERS STARTERS VS. GIANTS HITTERS
The lowdown: Detroit starting pitchers had the second-best ERA in the American League at 3.76 behind the Tampa Bay Rays (3.34) and have been dominant in the postseason with a 1.01 ERA in nine games.
The starters stifled the New York Yankees in the AL Championship Series, allowing two earned runs in 27 2/3 innings as the Tigers swept the series. Justin Verlander, who will start Game 1, is 3-0 with a 0.74 ERA in three postseason starts after going 17-8 with a 2.64 ERA and AL-leading 239 strikeouts in the regular season. Max Scherzer can be nearly as dominant, as he was second in the AL with 231 strikeouts to go with a 16-7 record and 3.74 ERA and has followed that by striking out 18 in 11 postseason innings. Doug Fister (10-10, 3.45 in the regular season) and Anibal Sanchez (9-13, 3.86) both have allowed two runs in 13 1/3 innings in two postseason starts.
San Francisco finished eighth in the National League with an average of 4.43 runs a game, and the Giants' 103 home runs were the fewest in the major leagues. Catcher Buster Posey is the favorite to win the NL MVP after hitting a league-leading .336 with 24 home runs and 103 RBI and carried much of the load after left fielder Melky Cabrera, who was hitting an NL-best .346, was suspended for the remainder of the season Aug. 15 after testing positive for testosterone. Second baseman Marco Scutaro is a good No. 2 hitter as he batted .362 in 248 plate appearances after being acquired from the Colorado Rockies in a July trade and went 14-for-28 (.500) to win MVP honors in the NL Championship Series.
Case for the Tigers: Detroit's starting pitching has been overwhelming in the postseason, and sweeping the Yankees has given the Tigers a chance to set up their rotation to start Verlander in Game 1 and also bring him back on short rest in Games 4 and 7 if they choose.
Case for the Giants: Posey is one of the best all-around hitters in the game, Scutaro has morphed into Ty Cobb and the Giants have shown a knack for stringing together hits in the postseason.
Says an AL scout: "The Tigers' starters are good, real good. Everybody loves Verlander, but for two to three months there, Scherzer was even better. If the umpires have a liberal strike zone, it's going to be difficult for the Giants to hit Fister or Sanchez. Everything has lined up perfectly for those guys."
Says an NL scout: "It's not going to take long to see how this series is going to go. The Giants hitters are hot? Wait 'til they meet Mr. Verlander. Who cares if the Tigers haven't played in a week. This guy can equalize that in a hurry. I'm not convinced they'll hit any of the Tigers guys. They can, but I don't know if they will. Everybody can get Hunter Pence out. It all depends on Buster Posey. He's trying to pull everything, not going the other way like when he's going well."
The edge: Tigers.
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TIGERS BULLPEN VS. GIANTS HITTERS
The lowdown: This is definitely the Tigers' weak spot. Their 3.79 ERA by relievers ranked 10th in the AL and closer Jose Valverde, who converted 35 of 40 save opportunities, has been tagged for seven runs in 2 1/3 postseason innings.
Tigers manager Jim Leyland says Valverde has worked out some mechanical issues and still is the closer. We'll see, though, as left-hander Phil Coke was on the mound for the final out of the last three games in the ALCS, recording two saves. Coke, isn't a closer by trade, as he has just six regular-season saves in five seasons. Top set-up man Joaquin Benoit also has been shaky in the postseason, giving up two runs in 3 2/3 innings, though Octavio Dotel has pitched 3 1/3 scoreless innings.
Case for the Tigers: October is full of unlikely heroes, and Coke is becoming one of them.
Case for the Giants: There are very few trustworthy options in the Tigers' bullpen right now, which is a plus for any opponent.
Says an AL scout: "Coke stepped up big for them, but at some point they're going to have to use Benoit or Valverde. Valverde has thrown just three times in 25 days now. He's throwing just fastballs, and he's gotten away from his split-finger. Al Alburquerque has the best stuff down there, but he's so unpredictable because you don't know where the ball is going."
Says an NL scout: "Jim Leyland still smokes, right? He'll never stop at this rate. He needs Valverde to be right because I don't know who else he can trust, and the Giants have thrived off all this comeback stuff. If the Tigers 'pen lets them steal one of the first two games, Detroit could be in trouble."
The edge: Giants.
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GIANTS STARTERS VS. TIGERS HITTERS
The lowdown: Ryan Vogelsong has been the Giants' best starter in the postseason and Matt Cain was their top starter in the regular season. The problem, though, is they were needed to win Games 6 and 7 of the NLCS, making them unavailable to pitch until Games 3 and 4 of the World Series.
Vogelsong has allowed three runs in 19 postseason innings after going 14-9 with a 3.37 ERA. Cain went 16-5 with a 2.79 ERA in the regular season and gave up three runs in 12 1/3 innings in two NLCS starts after allowing six runs in 10 2/3 in two starts against the Cincinnati Reds in the NL Division Series.
Left-hander Barry Zito blanked the St.Louis Cardinals for 7 2/3 innings in winning Game 5 of the NLCS after lasting 2 2/3 innings and giving up two runs in a start against Cincinnati in the NLDS.
Lefty Madison Bumgarner was 16-11 with a 3.37 ERA in the regular season but has been tagged for 10 runs in eight innings in two postseason starts. Conversely, Tim Lincecum has allowed five runs in 13 innings after a wretched regular season in which he led the NL in losses while going 10-15 with a 5.18 ERA.
Despite having two of the games' top sluggers, third baseman Miguel Cabrera and first baseman Prince Fielder, the Tigers were sixth in the AL with an average of 4.48 runs a game, and their 163 home runs ranked 10th. Cabrera became the first player in 45 years to win the Triple Crown as he led the AL with a .330 average, 44 home runs and 139 RBI. Neither has made a huge mark in the postseason as Cabrera is 10-for-36 (.278) with one home run and Fielder is 8-for-38 (.211) with one homer.
Center fielder Austin Jackson set the table, as he had a .377 on-base percentage in the regular season and is 11-for-37 (.297) in the postseason. Designated hitter-left fielder Delmon Young has been hot in the postseason, going 10-for-34 (.294) with two home runs and eight RBI.
Case for the Tigers: Cabrera and Fielder both are capable of dominating this series, especially if Jackson is getting on base.
Case for the Giants: If they can split the first two games in San Francisco, they will have some combination of Cain and Vogelsong ready for Games3 and 4 and a chance to take control of the series.
Says an AL scout: "Delmon Young has become the most interesting guy in the lineup. He really hits to the situation well. When there are no runners in scoring position, he'll pick his pitches to cheat on the inner half and turn on them. When runners are in scoring position, he'll shoot the ball to right field. You've got to pound the ball in on Fielder and Cabrera, and for the most part, it's worked this postseason. I think the biggest problem the Giants will have with that lineup is when Zito pitches. What he did against St.Louis just isn't going to work against Detroit."
Says an NL scout: "It's so hard to tell what you're going to get from game to game from the Giants pitchers. Barry Zito was incredible the other night, but can he really repeat that? If he doesn't get the curve ball over, it'll be home run derby. If Cain and Vogelsong are sharp, they can maneuver through the Detroit lineup.."
The edge: Tigers.
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GIANTS BULLPEN VS. TIGERS HITTERS
The lowdown: Giants closer Brian Wilson pitched twice this season before succumbing to Tommy John elbow surgery. While Wilson mugs for the camera during the postseason, the Giants have survived because of a collective effort by the bullpen.
Santiago Casilla led the Giants with 25 saves and a 2.84 ERA in the regular season, and San Francisco was eighth in the NL with a 3.56 ERA. But right-hander Sergio Romo, with his wipeout slider, has handled the closing chores in the postseason, allowing one run in 7 2/3 innings following a regular season in which he had a 1.79 ERA and 14 saves. Casilla has been tough in October, allowing one run in 5 1/3 innings as a setup man.
Left-handers Javier Lopez and Jeremy Affeldt have been unscored on in the postseason, Lopez working three innings and Affeldt 8 1/3.
Case for the Tigers: Giants relievers are due to give up some runs, aren't they?
Case for the Giants: The bullpen is rolling right now and it seems whomever is called on is prepared to shut the door.
Says an AL scout: "The Tigers might have a problem against this bullpen. Romo throws a lot of sliders, and that 'pen matches up real well against right-handers. Lefties give the Tigers a lot of problems. They're a different team facing lefties and had only 14 stolen base attempts off lefties all year. Jackson didn't have a single stolen base attempt against a lefty."
Says an NL scout: "I like the way the bullpen sets up and the way Bochy uses it. They're not likely to allow a string of hits, but I think the Tigers' big guns could turn around their best stuff. Bochy has the advantage here if it gets into a game of matchups."
The edge: Giants.
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CATCHING THE BALL
The lowdown: The Tigers finished seventh in the AL by committing 99 errors, but a more telling statistic is their .693 defensive efficiency. That is the percentage of balls in play that the Tigers turned into outs, and it was 13th in the AL. Jackson, the center fielder, is the only Tigers player who could be considered an above average defender. The Giants were 13th in the NL with 115 errors but their .711 defensive efficiency was seventh. If reputation didn't play such a large part in the voting, rookie shortstop Brandon Crawford and left fielder Gregor Blanco might win their first Gold Gloves.
Case for the Tigers: Jackson can chase down anything in center field and Peralta gives them surprising good play at shortstop.
Case for the Giants: Crawford is capable of making a spectacular play that could change the momentum of a game.
Says an AL scout: "You saw what Oakland did. They tried to go hard into Omar Infante at second base to force him into making wild throws. If you go hard, he has a real history of throwing balls away. I think you'll see the Giants try to bunt on Cabrera and Fielder, too. Their relievers also don't field the ball well, particularly Dotel and Valverde."
Says an NL scout: "The Giants are pretty solid defensively — nothing special — hough Hunter Pence can create some adventures playing San Francisco's weird right field."
The edge: Giants.
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JIM LEYLAND VS. BRUCE BOCHY
The lowdown: Both managers have had their challenges in the postseason. Leyland has watched Valverde melt down to the point where he has been unable to trust him. Bochy and the Giants have been forced to play six elimination games and won them all, rallying from a 2-0 deficit to beat the Reds in the NLDS and 3-1 down to defeat the Cardinals in the NLCS. Both men have plenty of experience; Leyland has managed 21 seasons and won 1,676 games, and Bochy has posted 1,454 victories in 18 seasons.
Says an AL scout: "Jim stays out of the way. There's not a lot of stuff he does. He doesn't put bunt plays on, or trick plays. He sets up his lineup for right-handers and left-handers and lets them play. He'll bunt or hit-and run with Quintin Berry and Don Kelly. Really, he just stays out of the way and lets them play."
Says an NL scout: "Bochy is so underrated. He's just so solid. He seems to always make the right move, and because they won a World Series doing it, his players totally believe in him. He's calm and that helps in the situations he's been in."
The edge: Giants.
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USA TODAY Sports reporters predict the World Series:
Steve Gardner: Tigers (6 games); Prince Fielder (MVP)
Gabe Lacques: Tigers (5); Jhonny Peralta (MVP)
Bob Nightengale: Tigers (5); Justin Verlander (MVP)
Jorge L. Ortiz: Giants (6); Pablo Sandoval (MVP)
John Perrotto: Giants (7); Buster Posey (MVP)
Paul White: Giants (6); Pablo Sandoval (MVP)