Decision day arrives for AL MVP candidates Cabrera, Trout

Steve Gardner, USA TODAY Sports

Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera are the top two candidates for the AL MVP award.

Third baseman Miguel Cabrera won the AL Triple Crown and led the Tigers to the playoffs
Angels outfielder Mike Trout excels on offense, defense and on the basepaths
Cabrera has finished in the top five of MVP voting in five different seasons, but has never won

The argument may not be completely settled, but a little before 7:00 p.m. ET we'll finally know the winner of this year's American League Most Valuable Player award.

The two front-runners -- third baseman Miguel Cabrera of the Detroit Tigers and rookie outfielder Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels -- have fueled the liveliest debate of the awards season, with worthy (and sometimes impassioned) cases made for both of them to claim the honor.

A panel of 28 members of the Baseball Writers Association of America (two from each AL city) will have the ultimate say. Boiled down to the basics, here's what they'll be considering:

HITTING

Cabrera has the eye-popping offensive numbers after winning the AL Triple Crown. He led the league in batting average (.330), home runs (44) and RBI (139) -- something that hasn't been done by one player in a single season since Carl Yastrzemski of the Boston Red Sox in 1967.

Trout, however, had a historic year of his own. His totals of 30 home runs, 49 stolen bases and 129 runs scored have never before been reached by anyone in the same season.

Edge: Cabrera

Third baseman Miguel Cabrera led the American League in batting average, home runs and RBI in leading the Detroit Tigers to the American League pennant.

DEFENSE/BASERUNNING

Cabrera will never be mistaken for a speedster, but he does have fairly good instincts on the base paths. He stole just four bases, but did score 109 runs during the season (second only to Trout). Although Cabrera is considered a below-average defensive third baseman, he'll get credit from the voters for changing positions to allow the Tigers to sign first baseman Prince Fielder in the offseason.

Trout is one of the fastest players in the game and although he wasn't promoted from the minor leagues until April 28, he still ended up leading the majors in both stolen bases and runs scored. On defense, Trout plays a more valuable position (center field) and his speed allows him to cover a significant amount of ground.

Edge: Trout

INTANGIBLES

Here's where the award will likely be won. Each writer's definition of "valuable" is different. (And remember all votes had to be submitted before the playoffs started.)

Cabrera had a huge month of September (.333, 11 HR, 30 RBI) as the Tigers rallied to overtake the Chicago White Sox for the AL Central title, while Trout tailed off in the final month (.289, 5 HR, 9 RBI, 7 SB) from the sizzling pace he set earlier and his Angels failed to make the playoffs.

Cabrera gets credit for his consistency, playing in 161 of the Tigers' 162 games. Meanwhile, Trout put up his impressive set of numbers in just five months, rather than six. Which is more impressive? More valuable?

Do Triple Crown stats carry extra weight? Not as much as one might think. Of the 11 previous Triple Crown seasons in history, only six times has that player been named league MVP.

Many baseball scribes now consider on-base percentage a more valuable stat than batting average. If so, Trout's OBP (.399) edges Cabrera (.393) -- although Cabrera still has the edge in on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) ,999 to .963.

Advanced metrics give the nod to Trout for his all-around contributions. The most often cited stat, Wins Above Replacement (WAR), attempts to combine everything a player does into one number. In that, Trout's value of 10.7 WAR surpasses everyone by a considerable margin. Cabrera was fourth in the AL with a 6.9 WAR.

Finally, the fact that Trout is just a rookie and has already won that major award could work against him. Cabrera has been one of the best players in the game since he broke in with the Florida Marlins in 2003. He's finished in the top 15 in MVP voting each of the past seven seasons, with five seasons in the top five, but he's never won the award. Cabrera's time may have finally arrived.

Edge: ??

In USA TODAY's final awards predictions, Cabrera received nine first-place votes and Trout received two. Expect the final BBWAA voting to be a little closer, but Cabrera should end up with the win in the only vote that really counts.

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