High Heat Stats: 500-homer club deserves second look

With the launch of the 2014 season, two players are approaching rare career milestones.

Derek Jeter will finish out a long career playing for a single team, and Albert Pujols is likely to reach 500 career home runs. Among fans and the news media, Jeter's type of accomplishment is becoming more appreciated, while Pujols' is becoming increasingly disregarded.

However, it seems that might be backward in terms of which milestone is more impressive.

Jeter has played all of his 2,602 career games with the New York Yankees heading into the 2014 regular season and has said he will retire after this season. It's often said that since the advent of free agency, the single-team career star is a rarity. Today's stars are thought to change teams in pursuit of the most money while teams are cited as having less loyalty than they used to.

The data doesn't support these notions.

In major league history, 36 players have played at least 2,000 career games with a single team. Only 13 of those careers ended in the 90-plus years before the advent of free agency, and 23 have ended in the last 36 years. Within the last decade, Edgar Martinez, Barry Larkin, Jeff Bagwell, Bernie Williams, Craig Biggio, Chipper Jones and Todd Helton have added their names to the list. Even correcting for the greater number of teams and players now than in the past, the one-team player is no less likely to occur today.

Meanwhile, Pujols sits eight homers shy of joining what once was considered a guaranteed Hall of Fame selection. From Babe Ruth's first career homer in 1915 to Eddie Murray's 500th in 1996, 15 players reached the plateau and all were voted into the Hall of Fame.

More recently, a flurry of 10 additional players reached 500 homers in the 10 calendar years beginning with Mark McGwire in 1999 and ending with Gary Sheffield in 2009. Several of the recent additions seem unlikely to make the Hall of Fame, including McGwire, Sheffield, Sammy Sosa and Rafael Palmeiro.

Barry Bonds is the ultimate case of the modern 500-homer player: a guy who played in an era of small ballparks and widespread use of performance-enhancing drugs. The milestone not only no longer carries an automatic ticket to Cooperstown, it barely even piques the interest of most fans today.

Pujols is a near-lock to be the next player to reach 500 homers, but the future is uncertain after him. Adam Dunn, with 441 at age 34, seems to have plenty of time, but his terrible recent performance decreases the chances that his career will extend long enough to get there.

Jason Giambi (438) and Paul Konerko (434) are too old with diminished skills. At 38, David Ortiz (431) hasn't yet shown a decline. With his new contract extension, Ortiz is probably the most likely candidate to reach 500 after Pujols.

Following Pujols and Ortiz, Miguel Cabrera, who has 365, is almost certain to be next. Based on recent performance, even with a bit of decline, he should reach 500 within four to five seasons, barring injury. Mark Teixeira (341) and Ryan Howard (312), both 34 this season, are unlikely to reach 500 unless they can get healthy and stay healthy.

After Cabrera, the next likely member is Prince Fielder, who has 285 homers and turns 30 in May. After Fielder, the player with the most homers who is under 30 at the start of this season is Ryan Zimmerman, with just 179. It's far too early to guess how close he'll get to 500.

After a whirlwind of players reached 500 career homers during the high-offense era of 1993 to 2009, the pace has slowed considerably.

While the mark will likely never regain its status of automatic election to the Hall of Fame, it is once again becoming a rare feat worth the same esteem it once held.

HighHeatStats.com is an affiliate of USA TODAY Sports Digital Properties.

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Players in major league history with 2,500 or more games for one team (heading into 2014 season):