MLB stage is set for a wild December
Josh Donaldson offered a succinct and appropriate reaction to the five-player deal that sent him from the Oakland Athletics to the Toronto Blue Jays.
"There was definitely a lot of shock," he said.
And no word may better sum up what could unfold across the major leagues in December.
Both the trade and free-agent markets have barely started to percolate, yet the A's shipping Donaldson off to Toronto four seasons shy of free agency and the Boston Red Sox's quick-strike acquisitions of Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez illustrate that plenty of teams will be aggressive – and every move only further complicates the next one.
As the out-of-nowhere Blue Jays and Red Sox trasnactions show, it's almost foolhardy to project what comes next. But there are some things we do know that may shape the direction, if not the specifics, of what should be a wild December:
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The Blue Jays are far from done: They've already made big ripples, guaranteeing Canadian catcher Russell Martin $85 million and then turning Brett Lawrie and three prospects into Donaldson, who trailed only Mike Trout in Wins Above Replacement the past two seasons. It's clear the Blue Jays are in one of their occasional go-for-broke cycles, yet significant holes remain. They need a second baseman, at least one outfielder, bullpen help and probably another veteran starter. All that means they'll easily blow past last year's $137 million payroll. But the Rogers Communications-owned club has deep pockets. This seems to be a winter they're bent on digging deeper into them.
Billy Beane is zagging again: Give Billy Butler $30 million - the A's aren't rebuilding! Trade Donaldson – the A's are rebuilding! Yep, the game's ultimate card shark is trying to stay ahead of everyone else again, and the Donaldson deal has the vultures circling. Jeff Samardzija, Scott Kazmir, Josh Reddick, Brandon Moss…it's presumed anyone older than 25 and making seven figures is available. Yet, Beane surely won't sell any of his assets short, which means a flooded starting pitcher market may not yield the best return for Samardzija right now. You can call it a rebuild, a reset, a reload or a re-tool, but rest assured Beane still wants to win – even if he has a unique way of showing it sometimes.
Strikeouts are passé: For hitters, anyway. Yes, the swing-from-your-heels ideal may be fading after the San Francisco Giants put the ball in play all the way to a World Series title, and now GMs may be cornering the market on contact guys. The Detroit Tigers took about five minutes to lavish $80 million on 35-year-old Victor Martinez; he posted a major league-low 6.6% strikeout rate in 2014, way below the league average of 20.4%. Sure, Mike Trout was a unanimous AL MVP pick despite striking out a whopping 26% of the time. But the hitters in demand thus far minimize whiffs – Martinez, Sandoval (13.1%), Ramirez (16.6%), Butler (14.5%) and Lawrie (16.4%) all fell under the league average. If copycat GMs are keeping contact in mind, that bodes well for free agents Melky Cabrera (10.8%), Nick Markakis (11.8%) and Nori Aoki (8.9%), and enhances the trade value of White Sox shortstop Alexei Ramirez (12.3%).
The Dodgers are shopping Matt Kemp: The center fielder has been linked in trade talks to the Padres and Orioles, among others. But it's best for both Dodgers fans and those pining for Kemp to chill a bit. Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers' new GM, is wise to gauge the value of his most marketable outfielder this side of the untouchable Yasiel Puig. But Kemp makes as much sense for the Dodgers as he does everyone else; keep in mind how long Friedman held onto David Price as Tampa Bay GM when the world clamored for the lefty to get dealt.
The winter meetings should be nuts: It is arguably baseball's most overhyped event. But next week's convention in San Diego should deliver more action and less mystery teams than recent years.
With 10 of the top 15 free agents still on the board, several teams itching to spend and blue-chip players on the trade block, gathering all 30 teams under one roof should feed the 24-hour news cycle nicely.
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