Who will win Cup title?
- Brad Keselowski starts from the pole with a 20-point lead
- He needs to finish 15th or better to win his first Cup title
- Jimmie Johnson is seeking his sixth Cup title
HOMESTEAD, Fla. --
Jeff Olson looks at the championship hopes for both:
Why Jimmie Johnson will come back and win title.
Olson's take: As a five-time winner, Johnson understands that patience and pressure are his allies. Brad Keselowski needs only to finish 15th or better, so Johnson's best hope for an improbable come-from-behind championship is to let the race play out while forcing Keselowski to race without error. They're starting fairly close together (Keselowski first, Johnson 10th) so there are opportunities for one-on-one duels. Johnson is the master of mind games, and his target has never been in this position. It's a stretch, but not out of the realm.
Spoiler: The residue of the Jeff Gordon-Clint Bowyer fiasco. It's unlikely that it reignites on track Sunday, but it's still simmering. If they get into it again – and if they get into it in the vicinity of Johnson or Keselowski – they could leave a sour mark on the championship.
Why Brad Keselowski will win his first title.
Olson's take: Only three things can cost him the championship: Mediocrity, mechanical failure or trouble. None have been part of Keselowski's recent history. All he needs is a solid finish, and his last 10 races bear the likelihood of that possibility. Only once in the last 10 races has he finished outside the top 10, with two wins and a runner-up finish on the card. He's been fast at Homestead during practice and qualifying this weekend, so mediocrity and mechanical issues aren't likely to come into play. All that could ruin it is trouble, and he hasn't crashed out of a race since the season-opening Daytona 500.
Spoiler: Jimmie Johnson. Johnson should be near or next to Keselowski through much of the race. "At some point, that magnitude hits, and I've lived through it five times," Johnson said. "That's a turning moment, and we'll see how he responds."