Who will win the NASCAR Cup championship? Our experts weigh in
HOMESTEAD, Fla. — The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series will crown its 2018 champion on Sunday.
Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch are each seeking their second titles. Joey Logano, the other Championship 4 driver, will be in the hunt for his first.
There are no flukes in this group. These drivers rank as the season’s top four in average finish, laps led and top-five finishes. And they have all been in the final four before.
A.J. Perez and Michelle R. Martinelli delve into the prospects for each contender ahead of Sunday’s Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC):
Martin Truex Jr.
Starting position: 3rd
Wins in 2018: 4
Career Cup wins: 19
Highest finish in standings: First (2017)
Best finish at Homestead: First (2017)
Why Truex will win title: A victory won’t change the fact that Sunday marks the final race for Furniture Row Racing as the team will shutter operations. The No. 78 Toyota team showed it can handle their emotions just fine as last year’s final race and series championship came as team owner Barney Visser recovered from a heart attack.
“If we can do exactly what we did last year, that would be fine,” Truex said.
Why he won’t: Truex entered last year’s finale with seven victories and he clinched his spot in the Championship 4 a race earlier than he did this year. Truex’s last win came at Kentucky Speedway in July, the 19th race of the season, so he’s not entering on a role as much this time around.
Kyle Busch
Starting position: 2nd
Wins in 2018: 8
Career Cup wins: 51
Highest finish in standings: First (2015)
Best finish at Homestead: First (2015)
Why Busch will win title: Busch qualified second, although he still came away with the prized No. 1 pit stall. On Saturday, owner Joe Gibbs announced the "team decision" to move pole winner and Busch's JGR teammate Denny Hamlin down a few stalls. Busch also enters with the most wins in the playoffs (two) among the Championship 4 and was the series’ regular-season champ. Perhaps just as important, his pit crew has been among the quickest in NASCAR for the past few years, which has allowed him to pick up track positions time and time again.
“First and foremost, you have to have a fast race car,” said Busch, who was edged out last year by Truex at Homestead. “Last year, we were the fastest car. Fastest cars don’t always win the race. You’ve got to have other things go your way. It’s much easier and your job is a lot more calculated if you have that fast car.”
Why he won’t: Busch has the worst average finish at Homestead among the final four drivers (18.5 in 13 starts).
Kevin Harvick
Starting position: 12th
Wins in 2018: 8
Career Cup wins: 45
Best finish in the standings: First (2014)
Best finish at Homestead: First (2014)
Why Harvick will win title: The No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford has been the fastest car all season: He’s tied for the most wins, is the most efficient passer among the final four and led nearly 20 percent of the season’s total laps. He’s repeatedly shown he can work his way to the front after starting at the back of the field, so having the lowest starting position among the contenders doesn't mean much. Harvick’s talent is obvious as a perennial championship contender, and his team’s chemistry advanced him to this spot and will help him win his second Cup Series championship.
“(Our team has) been together for five years now, and we all work for a great organization that gives us all the resources and things that we need to compete,” Harvick said. “In the end, you can’t drive a slow car fast and it takes great people to build a fast car.”
Why he won’t: While the team’s chemistry is key, it will have to win without crew chief Rodney Childers, who NASCAR suspended for two races following a major penalty two weeks ago at Texas Motor Speedway. The team’s success this season is because of his strategy as much as Harvick’s driving, and having backup crew chief Tony Gibson puts this team at a real disadvantage when everyone else is at full strength.
Joey Logano
Starting position: 5th
Wins in 2018: 2
Career Cup wins: 20
Best finish in the standings: Second (2016)
Best finish at Homestead: Fourth (2015, 2016)
Why Logano will win title: From the speed of the No. 22 Team Penske Ford to Logano’s racing, this team finally found its rhythm. Five of Logano’s 12 top-five finishes this season were in the previous nine playoff races, and he loves the idea of being the outsider facing the Big Three. Plus, because the team qualified for the championship race three weeks ago at Martinsville Speedway, it’s had that much more time to perfect a title-winning car.
“Our cars have been good, our pit crews have been spectacular, driver’s been doing his part, and I think we’re in a good spot to make this happen,” Logano said. “We’ve had a few weeks to think about this race, and only this race, and that’s a great advantage to have.”
Why he won’t: Logano’s success has been sporadic this season with waves of strong finishes sprinkled with mediocre ones, and the Big Three got that nickname because they’re the ones to beat each week with their own unparalleled speed. During the regular season, Logano said everyone else has to be perfect to beat the three dominant drivers, while they can make tiny mistakes and still win. Homestead will be no different.
Championship picks
A.J. Perez: Busch.
Busch’s hometown of Las Vegas has him even with Harvick as the favorite. Unlike Harvick, Busch will have his crew chief (Adam Stevens). Toss in that No. 1 pit stall and superior pit crew, Busch will get that second title.
Michelle R. Martinelli: Harvick.
It was clear back in March that Harvick was the car to beat this season, and that’s especially true with a title on the line. After his career-high eight wins this season and 22 top-5 finishes, it would be a disappointing end to have someone other than Harvick hoist that trophy. But he won’t let that happen.
