Predictions: Which NASCAR Cup drivers will make 2021 Championship 4 after Martinsville?

Well, these NASCAR playoffs, especially the Round of 8, haven’t exactly played out like surely most people expected — unless, of course, you expected Kyle Larson to win four of the eight postseason races so far.

Not only did Larson win the Round of 12 closer at Charlotte Motor Speedway’s Roval, but he also won the first two of three Round of 8 races — at Texas Motor Speedway and Kansas Speedway — and heads Sunday's race at Martinsville Speedway as the only driver locked into the Championship 4. And that means the three remaining spots are up for grabs for the other seven playoff drivers.

Larson aside, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch are the other drivers who are above the top-4 cutoff line going into Martinsville, and, if the standings remain the same through the Xfinity 500 (which is highly unlikely), Ryan Blaney, Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano will be the next four drivers eliminated from championship contention.

So who will advance, and who will be eliminated?

Here’s a breakdown of the playoff picture, how drivers can advance and our predictions for the final Championship 4 lineup.

A quick summary of the playoff picture and clinch scenarios

Going into the final race in the Round of 8, here’s a look at the playoff standings:

The simplest — though certainly not the easiest — way for drivers to advance to the Championship 4 round is to win at Martinsville. But beyond that, they can clinch their spots based on points in the standings, and Blaney, Truex and Keselowski in particular are barely below the cutoff.

If Larson wins at Martinsville or the winner is a non-playoff driver, the remaining title contenders could clinch their spot in the next round by being ahead of the fourth winless playoff driver in the standings. If Elliott, Hamlin or Busch wins, here’s how everyone else could advance, per NASCAR:

• Chase Elliott: Would clinch with 20 points, 22 points if Kyle Busch wins
• Denny Hamlin: Would clinch with 23 points, 24 points if Kyle Busch wins
• Kyle Busch: Would clinch with 54 points
• Ryan Blaney: Would clinch with 55 points, would need help if Kyle Busch wins
• Martin Truex Jr.: Would clinch with 55 points, would need help if Kyle Busch wins
• Brad Keselowski: Could only clinch with help
• Joey Logano: Could only clinch with help

But one of the four drivers below the cutline takes the checkered flag, these drivers can clinch their Championship 4 spots by being ahead of the third winless playoff driver in the standings. Via NASCAR:

• Chase Elliott: Would clinch with 22 points
• Denny Hamlin: Would clinch with 25 points
• Kyle Busch: Could only clinch with help
• Ryan Blaney: Could only clinch with help
• Martin Truex Jr.: Could only clinch with help
• Brad Keselowski: Could only clinch with help
• Joey Logano: Could only clinch with help

Michelle Martinelli's Championship 4 predictions

KYLE LARSON

He’s already in, obviously, so this is an easy one. But he’s never won at Martinsville and is up against several drivers who are really, really good at this track, so his three-race win streak will end here.

MARTIN TRUEX JR.

Back at the beginning of the playoffs, I predicted Truex would win the Martinsville race, and I’m sticking with it. Among active drivers, Truex’s three career wins at the Virginia short track rank him second behind his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate, Denny Hamlin — who it’s probably unpopular to pick against at this track, but this race can’t go perfectly for everyone. Plus, Truex has won three of the last four Martinsville races, and he’ll win again Sunday and lock himself into the final four.

KYLE BUSCH

Although his last Martinsville win was in the 2017 playoff race, Busch’s history at this track is too good to ignore. In 32 career starts, he has two checkered flags and finishes among the top-5 drivers 50 percent of the time. Sure, he and his team have had some not great luck through the playoffs, but if they can have a strong car and performance and be up front by the end, they’ll advance to give Busch a shot at his third championship.

CHASE ELLIOTT

The defending Cup Series champ needs at least 20 points somewhere to clinch his spot in the championship race, and he’ll get there to advance, but it’ll be a closer call than what the standings now suggest. Elliott is great at Martinsville and has finished in the top five in four of the last five races there, including winning this playoff race last year on his way to his first title. And he’ll advance, but with a lower finish than he’d want.

ELIMINATED

Hamlin, Blaney, Keselowski, Logano

Nick Schwartz's Championship 4 predictions

KYLE LARSON

You could make an argument that Larson should just take it easy at Martinsville and try to help Elliott advance if he’s in the position to do so, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he wins a fourth consecutive race on Sunday. If he does, the Phoenix finale will be one of the most dramatic in NASCAR playoff history, as we’ll see if one of the most dominant seasons in recent memory survives a winner-take-all lottery race.

CHASE ELLIOTT AND DENNY HAMLIN

The big question here is whether there’s more than one Championship 4 spot truly up for grabs. Elliott and Hamlin only need 20 and 23 points barring a Kyle Busch win, respectively, which translates to a 17th for Elliott and a 14th for Hamlin. They’re both among the top drivers in the field at Martinsville in terms of recent average finish, and while it’s entirely possible Kevin Harvick takes out Elliott or Hamlin gets involved in an incident, I think the odds indicate they both make it through to Phoenix.

RYAN BLANEY

In his last seven races at Martinsville, Blaney has five top-5s, two second place finishes, and has led 372 laps. Earlier this year Blaney led 157 laps at the track and won the first two stages, but was undone by a pit-road penalty. Blaney doesn’t need to win to advance, but I’m picking him to take the checkered in an epic duel with Martin Truex Jr.

ELIMINATED

Busch, Truex, Keselowski, Logano