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March Madness

NCAA tournament Bubble Tracker: The Big East could lose big on Selection Sunday

Portrait of Scott Gleeson Scott Gleeson
USA TODAY

The Big East is having a rough year. 

Near the top, Marquette has distinguished itself as a legitimate No. 3 seed thanks to seven Quadrant 1 wins (top-30 home/top-75 roads) and a top-20 ranking in the NET (the NCAA's new metric replacing the RPI). Conference leader Villanova, meanwhile, has a top-20 non-conference strength of schedule to remain comfortable at the No. 5 line. 

Six of the remaining eight teams in the league are all hovering around the NCAA tournament bubble with mediocre credentials.

St. John's and Seton Hall currently have enough on their profiles to stay on the right side of the bubble. The rest aren't so fortunate. Butler, which lost to St. John's on Tuesday, was pushed out of USA TODAY Sports' latest bracket projection with other fringe teams winning. And Creighton just shot itself in the foot by losing Wednesday to Xavier, one of only two basement Big East teams capable of staining the résumé.

Creighton finds itself squarely on the NCAA tournament bubble alongside five other Big East bubble teams.

Every year, there's a conference with a plethora of bubble teams beating each other up to make for an ugly picture on Selection Sunday. This year it's undoubtedly the Big East.

The best formula to go dancing is to take down Marquette or Villanova to secure a résumé-boosting Quadrant 1 victory. St. John's exemplifies this. Despite sporting a non-conference schedule in the 200s, the Red Storm have beaten Marquette twice. Georgetown's make-or-break Q1 game comes Feb. 20 hosting 'Nova, while Providence's is Feb. 23 hosting Marquette. 

Also on the bubble, North Carolina State rejoined the field as a play-in No. 12 seed in the latest bracket projection — thanks to a profile-enhancing win over Syracuse. Arizona State, meanwhile, didn't doing itself any favors by losing to Colorado on Wednesday night. The Sun Devils - the Pac-12's second-best team behind Washington - are realistically the best shot the league has of notching two bids this year. 

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Results/records shown are against Division I opponents only. Breakdown data, compiled by bracketologist Shelby Mast, is updated through games of Feb. 13.

Note: Records only include results of Division I games.

Temple (Out for now)

► Profile: 18-7 (8-4) 55 NET, 58 SoS, 182 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Houston, Davidson, South Florida, Memphis
  • The Bad: Loss to Penn

UCF (Out for now)

► Profile: 17-5 (7-3) 45 NET, 83 SoS, 148 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Alabama, Temple, Connecticut, South Florida
  • The Bad: Loss to Florida Atlantic

Clemson (In for now, No. 12 seed)

► Profile: 15-9 (5-6) 37 NET, 38 SoS, 120 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Virginia Tech, Lipscomb
  • The Bad: No bad losses

North Carolina State (In for now, No. 12 seed)

► Profile: 18-7 (6-6) 37 NET, 239 SoS, 353 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Auburn, Clemson, Syracuse, Penn State
  • The Bad: Loss to Wake Forest

St. John’s (In for now, No. 9 seed)

► Profile: 18-7 (6-6) 48 NET, 65 SoS, 214 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Marquette (twice), VCU, Creighton (twice), Georgetown, Butler
  • The Bad: Losses to Providence, DePaul

Seton Hall  (In for now, No. 11 seed)

► Profile: 15-9 (6-6) 69 NET, 39 SoS, 74 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Kentucky, Maryland, St. John’s, Creighton, Butler
  • The Bad: Losses to DePaul, Saint Louis

Butler (Out for now)

► Profile: 14-11 (5-7) 53 NET, 25 SoS, 67 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Florida, Georgetown, St. John’s, Ole Miss, Creighton, Seton Hall,
  • The Bad: Losses to DePaul, Saint Louis

Providence (Out for now)

► Profile: 14-11 (4-8) 74 NET, 59 SoS, 179 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Texas, Saint John’s, Seton Hall
  • The Bad: Losses to DePaul, Wichita State, Massachusetts

Creighton (Out for now)

► Profile: 13-12 (4-8) 57 NET, 16 SoS, 24 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Clemson, Georgetown, Butler, East Tennessee State, Providence
  • The Bad: Loss to Xavier

Georgetown (Out for now)

► Profile: 15-10 (5-7) 78 NET, 80 SoS, 223 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. St. John’s, Butler, Liberty, Providence
  • The Bad: Losses to SMU, Loyola Marymount

Ohio State (In for now, No. 8 seed)

► Profile: 16-7 (6-6) 36 NET, 51 SoS, 133 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Cincinnati, Nebraska, Creighton, Minnesota, Indiana
  • The Bad: Loss to Rutgers

Minnesota (In for now, No. 11 seed)

► Profile: 16-9 (6-8) 58 NET, 62 SoS, 204 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, Nebraska
  • The Bad: Losses to Illinois, Boston College

Indiana (In for now, No. 12 seed)

► Profile: 13-11 (4-9) 49 NET, 36 SoS, 124 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Michigan State, Louisville, Marquette, Butler
  • The Bad: Loss to Rutgers

Nebraska (Out for now)

► Profile: 13-11 (4-10) 40 NET, 70 SoS, 218 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Clemson, Indiana, Seton Hall, Creighton, Minnesota 
  • The Bad: Losses to Illinois, Rutgers

TCU (In for now, No. 9 seed)

► Profile: 17-7 (5-6) 33 NET, 22 SoS, 85 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Iowa State, Baylor, Texas, Florida
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Texas (In for now, No. 10 seed)

► Profile: 14-11 (6-6) 34 NET, 6 SoS, 10 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. North Carolina, Purdue, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Oklahoma 
  • The Bad: Losses to Providence, Radford, Georgia

Oklahoma (In for now, No. 10 seed)

► Profile: 15-10 (3-9) 41 NET, 11 SoS, 11 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Wofford, Florida, TCU, Creighton
  • The Bad: Loss to West Virginia

Arizona State (In for now, No. 11 seed)

► Profile: 16-8 (7-5) 72 NET, 67 SoS, 69 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Kansas, Washington, Mississippi State, Utah State, Arizona, Oregon
  • The Bad: Losses to Southern California, Stanford, Vanderbilt, Utah, Princeton, Washington State

Arizona (Out for now)

► Profile: 14-10 (5-6) 85 NET, 66 SoS, 53 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Iowa State, Connecticut
  • The Bad: Losses to Southern California, UCLA, Washington State

Oregon (Out for now)

► Profile: 15-9 (6-5) 64 NET, 74 SoS, 75 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Syracuse, Arizona
  • The Bad: Losses to Oregon State, UCLA, Texas Southern

Ole Miss (In for now, No. 8 seed)

► Profile: 17-7 (7-4) 35 NET, 69 SoS, 155 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Auburn (twice), Mississippi State, Baylor, Arkansas
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Auburn (In for now, No. 9 seed)

► Profile: 15-8 (5-6) 20 NET, 27 SoS, 44 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Washington, Florida, Alabama, Murray State, Arizona
  • The Bad: Loss to South Carolina

Alabama (In for now, No. 11 seed)

► Profile: 15-9 (6-5) 44 NET, 19 SoS, 51 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Kentucky, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Liberty, Murray State, Arizona
  • The Bad: Losses to Northeastern, Texas A&M, Georgia State

Florida (Out for now)

► Profile: 13-11 (5-6) 42 NET, 43 SoS, 137 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Arkansas, Ole Miss, Butler
  • The Bad: Loss to South Carolina

Arkansas (Out for now)

► Profile: 14-10 (5-6) 63 NET, 45 SoS, 73 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. LSU, Indiana
  • The Bad: Losses to South Carolina, Georgia Tech, Western Kentucky

Wofford (In for now, No. 9 seed — automatic qualifier Southern)

► Profile: 18-4 (13-0) 28 NET, 167 SoS, 155 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. UNC-Greensboro, East Tennessee State (twice), Furman
  • The Bad: No bad losses

VCU (In for now, No. 10 seed— automatic qualifier Atlantic 10)

► Profile: 18-6 (9-2) 43 NET, 41 SoS, 4 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Texas, Temple, Hofstra
  • The Bad: Loss to Charleston

Lipscomb (In for now, No. 10 seed— automatic qualifier Atlantic Sun)

► Profile: 18-5 (11-1) 30 NET, 188 SoS, 55 NonCon SoS 

  • The Good: Wins vs. TCU, Liberty, Vermont
  • The Bad: No bad losses

UNC-Greensboro (In for now, No. 12 seed — at large)

► Profile: 20-3 (11-1) 46 NET, 191 SoS, 180 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. East Tennessee State, Furman
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Belmont (In for now, No. 12 seed — at large)

► Profile: 18-4 (10-2) 60 NET, 166 SoS, 76 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Lipscomb (twice), UCLA, Murray State
  • The Bad: Losses vs. Jacksonville State (twice), Green Bay

Murray State (In for now, No. 12 seed - Ohio Valley automatic qualifier)

► Profile: 17-4 (10-2) 65 NET, 291 SoS 227 NonCon Sos

  • The Good: No good wins
  • The Bad: Loss to Jacksonville State

Davidson (Out for now)

► Profile: 17-6 (8-2) 68 NET, 116 SoS, 117 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Win vs. VCU
  • The Bad: Losses to Saint Joseph’s, Wake Forest, Massachusetts

Saint Mary’s (Out for now)

► Profile: 15-10 (6-4) 50 NET, 31 SoS, 81 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. New Mexico State, San Francisco
  • The Bad: Losses to Western Kentucky, UC-Irvine, Harvard, Pepperdine

Utah State (Out for now)

► Profile: 18-6 (9-3) 38 NET, 126 SoS, 47 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Saint Mary’s, Fresno State
  • The Bad: Loss to San Diego State

***

NCAA tourney Language Explainer:

  • Quadrant 1 wins: Home games vs. 1-30 NET teams; Neutral-site games vs. 1-50 NET; Away games vs. 1-75 NET
  • Quadrant 2 wins: Home games vs. 31-75 NET; Neutral-site games vs. 51-100 NET; Away games vs. 76-135 NET
  • Quadrant 3 wins, losses: Home games vs. 76-160 NET; Neutral-site games vs. 101-200 NET; Away games vs. 136-240 NET
  • Quadrant 4 wins, losses: Home games vs. 161-plus NET; Neutral-site games vs. 201-plus NET; Away games vs. 241-plus NET

Note: Mostly all statistical data is used from WarrenNolan.com. The NCAA's new NET rankings are also considered; that was rolled out at the beginning of 2018-19. 

About our bracketologist: Shelby Mast has been projecting the field since 2005 on his website, Bracket W.A.G. He joined USA TODAY in 2014. In his sixth season as our national bracketologist, Mast has finished as one of the top three bracketologists in the past five March Madnesses. He’s also predicted for The Indianapolis Star, collegeinsider.com and is an inaugural member of the Super 10 Selection Committee. Follow him on Twitter @BracketWag.

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