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March Madness

NCAA tournament Bubble Tracker: How this mid-major league could buck trend, get three bids

Portrait of Scott Gleeson Scott Gleeson
USA TODAY

The NCAA tournament bubble is flat out soft this year.

The selection committee and bracketologists alike are usually hard-pressed to determine which fringe teams make the cut in the field of 68 — because there are so many. But this year, it's more of a puzzle to find teams that are worthy to be part of March Madness. 

As a result, there's a possibility for typically disregarded mid-majors to seize the opportunity by securing at-large bids that are usually hard to come by. 

That rare possibility starts in the Southern Conference. League leader Wofford (23-4, 15-0) is good enough to get in as an at-large (currently projected as a No. 8 seed) should it lose in the league tournament.

Furman has a chance to make the Southern Conference a two or three-team league with NCAA tournament bids come Selection Sunday.

The Terriers have a ranking in the top 25 of the NET, the NCAA's new metric in place of the RPI. If the committee fully values this tool, expect to see them dancing even if they fall in the Southern tournament semifinals. 

There's two chasers with slimmer chances to attain at-large bids in Furman (22-5, 11-4) and UNC-Greensboro (22-5, 11-3).��

The best case scenario for the league is that Furman beats Wofford this weekend and then wins out the rest of the regular season. Should the Paladins lose in the semis of the league tourney, those results should still get them an at-large bid with the bubble this soft. Credit that mostly to a 42 NET score and a signature victory at Villanova.

UNC-Greensboro holds a top-60 NET but really doesn't have many opportunities outside of the Southern tournament to bolster its résumé. Should the Spartans beat Wofford (a team it lost to by 30 last week) there but not win the whole thing, there's a chance. But UNCG is the outlier in this three-bid scenario. Winning the conference tournament is a must to avoid an NIT consolation prize on Selection Sunday. 

Either way, there's a good possibility for the Southern to be a multiple bid mid-major league, and all three of these teams have veteran, fundamentally-sound rosters ready to bust brackets. 

On the bubble line Wednesday, Georgetown played itself into the field of 68 — as a No. 12 seed — by picking up a marquee victory vs. Villanova. That bracket movement pushed fellow Big East bubble team Butler out of the projected field. Another borderline Big East team, Seton Hall, lost to Xavier by one which pushes the Pirates closer to the wrong side of the bubble. 

Florida got what every bubble team is craving this time of year: A Quadrant 1 road victory. The Gators moved up to the No. 10 line after defeating LSU on Wednesday. Just a week ago, Florida wasn't even in the projected field and is now nearing the safe zone. One week can change everything this close to March.

**

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Results/records shown are against Division I opponents only. Breakdown data, compiled by bracketologist Shelby Mast, is updated through games of Feb. 20.

Temple (In for now, No. 11 seed)

► Profile: 19-7 (9-4) 52 NET, 64 SoS, 224 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Houston, Davidson, South Florida (twice), Memphis
  • The Bad: Loss to Penn

UCF (In for now, No. 12 seed — play-in)

► Profile: 18-5 (8-3) 40 NET, 91 SoS, 159 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Alabama, Temple, Connecticut, South Florida, Memphis
  • The Bad: Loss to Florida Atlantic

North Carolina State (In for now, No. 12 seed — play-in)

► Profile: 19-8 (7-7) 31 NET, 212 SoS, 352 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Auburn, Clemson, Syracuse, Penn State
  • The Bad: Loss to Wake Forest

Clemson (Out for now)

► Profile: 15-11 (5-8) 43 NET, 31 SoS, 138 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Virginia Tech, Lipscomb
  • The Bad: No bad losses

St. John’s (In for now, No. 8 seed)

► Profile: 19-7 (7-6) 49 NET, 53 SoS, 203 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Marquette (twice), Villanova, VCU, Creighton (twice), Georgetown, Butler
  • The Bad: Losses to Providence, DePaul

Seton Hall (In for now, No. 12 seed — play-in)

► Profile: 16-9 (7-6) 61 NET, 38 SoS, 62 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Kentucky, Maryland, St. John’s, Creighton (twice), Butler
  • The Bad: Losses to DePaul, Saint Louis

Georgetown (In for now, No. 12 seed — play-in)

► Profile: 16-10 (5-7) 81 NET, 75 SoS, 235 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. St. John’s, Butler, Liberty, South Florida, Providence, Villanova
  • The Bad: Losses to SMU, Loyola Marymount

Butler (Out for now)

► Profile: 15-12 (6-8) 49 NET, 23 SoS, 63 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Florida, Georgetown, St. John’s, Ole Miss, Creighton, Seton Hall
  • The Bad: Loss to Saint Louis

Ohio State (In for now, No. 9 seed)

► Profile: 17-9 (7-8) 45 NET, 54 SoS, 123 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Cincinnati, Nebraska, Creighton, Minnesota, Indiana
  • The Bad: Loss to Rutgers, Illinois

Minnesota (In for now, No. 11 seed)

► Profile: 17-9 (7-8) 50 NET, 62 SoS, 173 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, Nebraska, Indiana
  • The Bad: Losses to Illinois, Boston College

Indiana (Out for now)

► Profile: 13-13 (4-11) 55 NET, 37 SoS, 154 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Michigan State, Louisville, Marquette, Butler, Penn State
  • The Bad: Loss to Rutgers

Nebraska (Out for now)

► Profile: 15-12 (5-11) 46 NET, 90 SoS, 217 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Clemson, Indiana, Seton Hall, Creighton, Minnesota 
  • The Bad: Losses to Illinois, Rutgers

Baylor (In for now, No. 8 seed)

► Profile: 17-9 (8-5) 32 NET, 34 SoS, 197 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Iowa State (twice), Texas Tech, Oklahoma (twice), TCU, Alabama, Oregon, Arizona
  • The Bad: Losses to Wichita State, Texas Southern, Stephen F. Austin

Texas (In for now, No. 10 seed)

► Profile: 15-11 (7-6) 36 NET, 10 SoS, 13 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. North Carolina, Purdue, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Oklahoma 
  • The Bad: Losses to Providence, Radford, Georgia

Oklahoma (In for now, No. 10 seed)

► Profile: 16-10 (4-9) 39 NET, 13 SoS, 21 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Wofford, Florida, TCU (twice), Creighton
  • The Bad: Loss to West Virginia

TCU (In for now, No. 11 seed)

► Profile: 17-9 (5-8) 41 NET, 35 SoS, 91 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Iowa State, Baylor, Texas, Florida
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Arizona State (In for now, No. 10 seed)

► Profile: 18-8 (9-5) 68 NET, 69 SoS, 51 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Kansas, Washington, Mississippi State, Utah State, Arizona, Oregon
  • The Bad: Losses to Southern California, Stanford, Vanderbilt, Utah, Princeton, Washington State

Ole Miss (In for now, No. 9 seed)

► Profile: 18-8 (8-5) 35 NET, 89 SoS, 175 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Auburn (twice), Mississippi State, Baylor, Arkansas
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Auburn (In for now, No. 9 seed)

► Profile: 17-8 (6-6) 24 NET, 41 SoS, 45 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Washington, Florida, Alabama, Murray State, Arizona
  • The Bad: Loss to South Carolina

Florida (In for now, No. 10 seed)

► Profile: 15-11 (7-6) 33 NET, 30 SoS, 137 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Arkansas, Ole Miss, Butler, Alabama, LSU
  • The Bad: Loss to South Carolina

Alabama (Out for now)

► Profile: 15-11 (6-7) 53 NET, 28 SoS, 59 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Kentucky, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Liberty, Murray State, Arizona
  • The Bad: Losses to Northeastern, Texas A&M (twice), Georgia State

Wofford (In for now, No. 8 seed — automatic qualifier Southern)

► Profile: 23-4 (15-0) 25 NET, 154 SoS, 121 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. UNC-Greensboro (twice), East Tennessee State (twice), Furman
  • The Bad: No bad losses

VCU (In for now, No. 9 seed— automatic qualifier Atlantic 10)

► Profile: 20-6 (11-2) 37 NET, 32 SoS, 2 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Texas, Temple, Hofstra, Dayton
  • The Bad: Loss to Charleston

Belmont (In for now, No. 11 seed — at large)

► Profile: 21-4 (12-2) 58 NET, 218 SoS, 97 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Lipscomb (twice), UCLA, Murray State
  • The Bad: Losses vs. Jacksonville State (twice), Green Bay

Lipscomb (Out for now as at-large — in as Atlantic Sun automatic qualifier No. 12 seed)

► Profile: 21-6 (12-2) 38 NET, 234 SoS, 67 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. TCU, Liberty, Vermont
  • The Bad: Loss to Florida Gulf Coast

UNC-Greensboro (Out for now)

► Profile: 22-5 (11-3) 58 NET, 121 SoS, 161 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. East Tennessee State, Furman
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Murray State (Out for now as at-large— in as Ohio Valley automatic qualifier No. 12 seed)

► Profile: 21-4 (12-2) 61 NET, 276 SoS 232 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: No good wins
  • The Bad: Loss to Jacksonville State

Furman (Out for now)

► Profile: 22-5 (11-4) 42 NET, 240 SoS 301 NonCon Sos

  • The Good: Wins over Villanova, UNCG, East Tennessee State
  • The Bad: Loss to Samford

Saint Mary’s (Out for now)

► Profile: 17-10 (8-4) 47 NET, 38 SoS, 77 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. New Mexico State, San Francisco
  • The Bad: Losses to Western Kentucky, UC-Irvine, Harvard, Pepperdine

Utah State (Out for now)

► Profile: 21-6 (11-3) 34 NET, 127 SoS, 23 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Saint Mary’s, Fresno State
  • The Bad: Loss to San Diego State

***

NCAA tourney Language Explainer:

  • Quadrant 1 wins: Home games vs. 1-30 NET teams; Neutral-site games vs. 1-50 NET; Away games vs. 1-75 NET
  • Quadrant 2 wins: Home games vs. 31-75 NET; Neutral-site games vs. 51-100 NET; Away games vs. 76-135 NET
  • Quadrant 3 wins, losses: Home games vs. 76-160 NET; Neutral-site games vs. 101-200 NET; Away games vs. 136-240 NET
  • Quadrant 4 wins, losses: Home games vs. 161-plus NET; Neutral-site games vs. 201-plus NET; Away games vs. 241-plus NET

Note: Mostly all statistical data is used from WarrenNolan.com. The NCAA's new NET rankings are also considered; that was rolled out at the beginning of 2018-19. 

About our bracketologist: Shelby Mast has been projecting the field since 2005 on his website, Bracket W.A.G. He joined USA TODAY in 2014. In his sixth season as our national bracketologist, Mast has finished as one of the top three bracketologists in the past five March Madnesses. He’s also predicted for The Indianapolis Star, collegeinsider.com and is an inaugural member of the Super 10 Selection Committee. Follow him on Twitter @BracketWag.

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