March Madness upset picks: These 5 teams are primed for first-round upsets
Jack McKessyMarch Madness is finally here, which means the usually upset-heavy first round of the NCAA Division I men's tournament is just moments away.
College basketball's postseason format is one of the most exciting in any sport on the college or professional level. Every year, 68 teams compete for a national championship in a single-elimination tournament, and every year, some of the top seeds in each region go home before the second week.
In a sport of back-and-forth scoring, big runs and frustrating droughts, the victor of a college basketball game can often be the team that gets hot at the right time. The same is true of the run to a national title.
Upsets are in the nature of March Madness. These five lower-seeded teams are in a prime position to pull one off in the first round.
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March Madness first-round upset picks
No. 11 New Mexico Lobos over No. 6 Clemson Tigers
The word "upset" is used semi-loosely here. While the Lobos are a lower seed than the Tigers in the first round, New Mexico has a better record than Clemson, is coming into the tournament hot off of a Mountain West conference tournament win, have a better KenPom rating and are betting favorites for the game.
Still, a lower seed is a lower seed. Don't be surprised to see New Mexico in the round of 32 off of this "upset."
No. 11 N.C. State Wolfpack over No. 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders
By most analytic metrics, Texas Tech should come away with a win. They are a better team than N.C. State on paper with more efficiency on both sides of the court, they're a higher seed and the betting favorite.
However, the Wolfpack are among the hottest teams in college basketball right now. They just won the ACC tournament after a magical run of five wins in five days, including ones over top-15 teams North Carolina and Duke. March Madness is often about the team that's hot when it matters most, and N.C. State is red-hot.
No. 12 McNeese State Cowboys over No. 5 Gonzaga Bulldogs
McNeese State is one of the most popular upset picks in the first round of this year's tournament for good reason. Under head coach Will Wade, they finished their season with a 30-3 record, a Southland conference championship and their first tournament bid since 2002.
It isn't just that the Cowboys win, it's how. They are among the best teams in the nation at forcing turnovers while keeping their own to a minimum. They grab offensive rebounds, and they can shoot from beyond the arc. They also have the 16th-lowest tempo of any team in the tournament.
Gonzaga is a strong team and are still 6.5-point favorites, but they'll have their work cut out for them.
No. 13 Samford Bulldogs over No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks
Don't be fooled by Samford's low seed. While the Jayhawks may be a bigger team with a stronger strength of record, injury troubles hit Kansas hard. The blue blood lost top scorers Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr. to injuries down the stretch, and the Jayhawks lost four of their last five games including a 20-point loss to Cincinnati. Kansas head coach Bill Self has already announced McCullar will miss the tournament.
The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are a frisky and aggressive bunch. They play "Bucky Ball:" creating turnovers, shooting well from beyond the arc, snagging offensive boards and generally causing chaos. Samford has a real chance to pull off the upset, especially with McCullar missing from Kansas' offense.
No. 16 Grambling State Tigers over No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue are 26.5-point underdogs and among betting favorites to win it all. Last year, they were 23.5-point favorites in the first round and also among betting favorites to win it all, but they lost to No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson.
The Boilermakers are ready to exorcise last year's first-round demons, but there's always a chance for a team that plays at a slow tempo and does well to force turnovers.
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How to watch NCAA Men's Basketball March Madness 2024
All games will be broadcast across CBS, TBS, TNT and TruTV. Here are additional streaming options to watch all the action on your devices.
- Stream through Paramount+
- Stream through HULU with Live TV
- NCAA March Madness Live app
- Stream through DirecTV Stream
How to watch March Madness:Catch all tournament action with a subscription to fuboTV
Printable March Madness bracket
You can find a printable bracket for the men's tournament here.
A women's tournament printable bracket is available here.
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