'It's win or go home': Duke begins final push for NCAA Tournament against North Carolina

DURHAM, N.C. — Mike Krzyzewski openly questioned the basketball gods earlier this week.

Yes, he believes in them, which could explain why his faith has been rewarded with five national titles, 24 consecutive NCAA Tournaments and more wins that any basketball coach that has ever lived. 

That faith, though, seems to have been shaken this season.

"Over the years, we’ve been very fortunate,” he said after Tuesday's overtime 81-77 loss to Georgia Tech. “So I don’t know if the basketball gods are evening things up a little bit.”

It was a second consecutive overtime defeat for Duke (11-10, 9-8 ACC), which may have finally had its NCAA Tournament bubble burst after a four-game win streak put the Blue Devils back into the conversation.

All eight of their ACC losses have been by seven points or less. Duke has not missed March Madness since 1995.

"It's been a year of almost," Krzyzewski said.

Maybe not an ideal time to finish the regular season with a road game in Chapel Hill against North Carolina. Or is it?

The Tar Heels (15-9, 9-6 ACC) are as unpredictable as it comes over the last four games, first blowing out Louisville by 45 points and then losing by 13 to a sub .500 Marquette team. 

They followed up the loss with a 78-70 win over first-place Florida State before falling to Syracuse 72-70 two days later. 

“We go from playing one of our best games of the year and beating Florida State, to losing (Monday night),” North Carolina forward Armando Bacot said. “It’s just tough.”

Tough is the right adjective to sum up Duke and UNC's seasons. But if recent history taught us anything, this game, regardless of circumstance, lives up to the hype as college basketball's greatest rivalry. 

"It’d be great to get back to the old days and have fans, have summer, have 31 games or so and do all those things," Krzyzewski told media Thursday. "That’s my hope, but the game is big. There’s no question about it. We don’t minimize it in any way."

What's different from last time?

Let's start with what's the same since the Tar Heels knocked off the Blue Devils Feb. 6 at an empty Cameron Indoor, 98-96.

This game remains outside the norm from most years, with Duke and UNC unranked and out of ACC regular-season title contention. The Tar Heels, however, seem like a safe bet to make the NCAA Tournament after finishing 14-19 last season.

They're ranked No. 44 in the NET — the NCAA's evaluation tool — while Duke dropped from 49 to 57.

"I would think that they (UNC) are in the tournament," Krzyzewski said. "I would hope with what they've done, they had earned that. If we had won those two overtime games, we might both be in that situation."

Duke's starting lineup will likely be the same heading into Saturday's game, sans Jalen Johnson of course, but North Carolina hasn't yet faced 7-foot freshman Mark Williams in his true form.

Since being limited to 14 minutes and scoring two points against UNC, Williams has become an important part of Duke's offense — he hit all nine of his shots and finished with a career-high 20 points against Georgia Tech — while giving his team some necessary size on defense.

Williams has averaged over two blocks a game during the second half of the season.

"I think it's made them (Duke) a great deal stronger, nothing against the Johnson kid that left by any means, but this kid (Williams) protects the rim and you can't get any easy baskets," North Carolina coach Roy Williams said. "You could earlier against Duke and now all of a sudden you don't score in the lane area."

North Carolina also has seen the emergence of another big man to join Garrison Brooks, Day'Ron Sharpe and Bacot in the interior.

Walker Kessler, a 7-foot-1 freshman, played three minutes and was scoreless against Duke, but has since scored at least 10 points in four of his last six games, including a 20-point, eight rebound and four block performance against Florida State.

"It is very unique and tough to defend," Krzyzewski said about UNC's big man rotation. "They’re fresh on the boards all the time and they’re fresh in running the court, and that’s a big advantage.”

Home-court advantage?

It won't be a full house Saturday at the Dean E. Smith Center, but the 21,750-seat arena will still be rocking, even if it's not at full capacity.

Gov. Roy Cooper announced last week that indoor arenas with at least 5,000 seats will be allowed attendance at 15% capacity (3,262 fans, in this case). 

UNC has reserved 75% of its seats for students distributed through its lottery system while the remaining tickets will be distributed among a mix of family members of players and coaches, UNC Hospitals health care workers and Rams Club members.

Duke was given 40 tickets to give to players' family members and close friends who can attend, according to Mike DeGeorge, Duke’s executive director of communications.

"It makes you miss the old days and look forward to the future when you have fans back in the stands," Krzyzewski said. "Our sport won't be back completely until you have fans."

As things stand before Saturday's game, Duke would face Syracuse in the No. 8-9 second round game of the ACC tournament March 10.

"It’s basically win or go home," sophomore Matthew Hurt said. "Our season could be done next week or we could just keep fighting, keep working and getting better and our season can keep going. We’re not trying to focus on the outside, all the bracketology and everything – we’re just trying to keep it ‘us against the world.' "

Follow David Thompson on Twitter @daveth89