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NCAAF

For Irish, independence could also mean being left out

George Schroeder, USA TODAY Sports
Notre Dame's football team, shown   in September after beating Navy in Dublin,   has had a lot to be happy about this season. But a place in the BCS national title game is not assured for the Irish, even if they finish the regular season unbeaten.
  • Coach Brian Kelly is voting Notre Dame No. 1 in the coaches poll
  • Notre Dame's athletics director acknowledges the Irish aren't well-positioned if three teams win out
  • Of the three remaining unbeatens, Notre Dame has the best strength of schedule

Brian Kelly is voting Notre Dame No. 1, as he should. The coach believes his team is worthy, and if you ask him, he'll explain why.

But that's about the extent of it.

In a three-way race for two spots in the Bowl Championship Series national championship game, the Irish rank No. 3, with seemingly little chance of overtaking Kansas State or Oregon should the Wildcats and Ducks remain unbeaten. At least for now, there's not much politicking.

"We're not going there," Notre Dame athletics director Jack Swarbrick said.

Even if it means the Irish don't go to Miami?

"We know what we've got to do," senior linebacker Manti Te'o said. "We don't care about all that talk. We've got business we have to take care of. If we don't take care of that business, there won't be any more conversation for us."

There's not much conversation now, and that's the thing. Never mind wondering whether Notre Dame could pass Oregon or Kansas State, there's more talk – mostly, from down South, and it's unrealistic – of whether one-loss Alabama could pass the Irish.

Posed against the bigger picture of Notre Dame's traditional position in college football, the current snapshot seems wacky. Maybe that's why we haven't heard much from the Irish's sizable fan base. At least, not yet.

"I think some portion of our fan base has sort of a blind faith that if we go undefeated, there's no way we get left out of the national championship," Swarbrick said. "They sort of operate on that principle a little bit."

But Swarbrick acknowledges the reality: If all three teams win out, the Irish probably will be left out. And he thinks it might have something to do with the school's cherished tradition of going it alone.

"It's the flip side of independence," Swarbrick said. "We love it and all the benefits it gives us, but the conference anchor, and the perception of the conference, you never have the benefit of it."

By comparison, Kansas State is headed toward winning a rugged Big 12. And though the Pac-12 hasn't proved to be as difficult, Oregon finishes the season with ranked opponents in Stanford and Oregon State, followed by a probable ranked opponent in the Pac-12 championship game. If Swarbrick sees "a presumption in favor of conference champions," statistically at least, he has a point.

Consider Notre Dame's strength of schedule, as measured by Jeff Sagarin, ranks 28th. Kansas State's is 29th, Oregon's 45th. That will change some, for Oregon. But Notre Dame's schedule, which did not include a team from the lower FCS level (Kansas State played Missouri State; Oregon played Tennessee Tech) and included only one non-BCS league opponent (Navy), was daunting enough that Swarbrick said, "The prospect of navigating it seemed a little remote to me (before the season)."

A quick head-to-head comparison: Notre Dame was more impressive winning at Oklahoma than Kansas State was (they both routed Miami). The difference is style points. The Irish do not score many.

Notre Dame's run has been fueled by a dominant defense. The Irish rank No. 1 in scoring defense, allowing opponents 11.1 points a game. But an inconsistent, though evolving, offense has led to several narrow escapes.

Notre Dame should beat Wake Forest on Saturday, and easily; Wake Forest ranks No. 111 (of 120) in total offense. But the Irish probably should have beaten Pittsburgh fairly easily, too, and instead needed three overtimes. It's victories like that – five relative squeakers, survival rather than domination – that prevent the Irish from passing the all important "eye test," whatever that is.

While the end result is the same, voters in the USA TODAY Sports coaches poll and the Harris poll haven't seemed impressed. There's still plenty of football to be played, and a look back to last Saturday should be enough to stop fast-forwarding everyone into December.

"We'll just keep working on (winning) one at a time and let other people figure out where that puts us," Kelly said.

But for now, that last part is the problem.

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