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NCAAF

Previewing the weekend's playoff games

Eddie Timanus, USA TODAY Sports
North Dakota State's Sam Ojuri has carried for 884 yards and a team-best nine touchdowns this season.
  • FCS has its final four: Georgia Southern at N.D. State, Sam Houston State at Eastern Washington
  • In Division III final Friday, Mount Union is making its eighth consecutive appearance
  • In Division II final Saturday, newcomer Winston-Salem State faces two-time champ Valdosta State

FCS semifinals

Georgia Southern (10-3) at North Dakota State (12-1)

When/TV: Friday, 8 p.m. ET/ESPN2. Surface: Artificial.

Sagarin difference: NDSU by 11.04.

Synopsis: This is a semifinal rematch from 2011, and the Eagles are hoping for a different result as NDSU prevailed en route to the national championship. The weather won't be a factor in the Fargodome, but the Bison defense that stopped the triple option cold a season ago certainly will be. But Georgia Southern's ball security has improved with QB Jerick McKinnon at the controls. FB Dominique Swope is the usual first option. But LB Grant Olson and Co. got a good preview of what they'll see from the Eagles in last week's 14-7 victory against Wofford. The Bison's TB duo of Sam Ojuri and John Crockett set the tone for a power offense that thrives on clock control. If they get rolling, QB Brock Jensen can spring a big pass with an effective play fake. LB John Stevenson and the Eagles' defense must be tight on third down to get themselves off the field.

Sam Houston State (10-3) at Eastern Washington (11-2)

When/TV: Saturday, 4 p.m. ET/ESPNU. Surface: Artificial.

Sagarin difference: Sam Houston by 4.05.

Synopsis: The Bearkats have already conquered two Big Sky members in this playoff run, Cal Poly and Montana State. The Eagles of the red turf might be their toughest test yet. EWU missed the postseason last year after winning the 2010 championship but is unbeaten at home in 2012. Sam Houston QB Brian Bell has a variety of weapons, but in order to use them he'll have to stay clear of Eagles DE Jerry Ceja. Bearkats RB Tim Flanders does most of the damage on the ground, but WR Richard Sincere can also move in for direct snaps. EWU QB Kyle Padron is firing on all cylinders in the playoffs, tossing six TDs in last week's victory against Illinois State. WR Brandon Kaufman is his primary target with a lofty 1,635 receiving yards this season. SHSU S Darnell Taylor will likely be deployed to double him.

NCAA Division III championship in Salem, Va.

Mount Union (Ohio) (14-0) vs. St. Thomas (Minn.) (14-0)

When/TV: Friday, 7 p.m. ET/ESPNU. Surface: Artificial.

Synopsis: Incredibly, this is the eighth consecutive Stagg Bowl appearance for the Purple Raiders. Perhaps just as incredibly, Mount Union has come up short in their last three visits to Salem. But it's not the Warhawks from Wisconsin-Whitewater there to meet them this time. It is the Tommies, who are in their first final. The Purple Raiders' experience figures to be an advantage, so St. Thomas must settle into the familiarities of game action quickly. Mount Union QB Kevin Burke will look early and often for his top weapon, WR Jasper Collins, who will try to add to his 22 TD catches. WR Chris Denton should also get opportunities. The St. Thomas defense is a sound group, and DE Ayo Idowu can be a difference maker. QB Matt O'Connell is the Tommies' offensive catalyst with 3,442 total yards, 795 by land. RB Jack Kaiser can help, but there isn't likely to be much real estate available against LB Charles Dieuseul and the Purple Raiders' top-ranked defense.

NCAA Division II championship in Florence, Ala.

Winston-Salem (N.C.) State (14-0) vs. Valdosta (Ga.) State (11-2)

When/TV: Saturday, 1 p.m. ET/ESPN2. Surface: Artificial.

Synopsis: The Blazers from Valdosta State are making their fourth championship-game appearance and seeking their third crown. The Rams, who rejoined the Central Intercollegiate Athletic Association after a flirtation with climbing to Division I FCS, are now hoping to bring home the program's and conference's first D-II title. WSSU QB Kameron Smith is enjoying a tremendous senior season with 3.043 passing yards and 42 TDs and only nine picks. His loaded arsenal is led by WRs Jameze Massey and Jahuann Butler as well as RB Maurice Lewis. The Blazers will counter with QB Cayden Cochran, the top-rated passer in the Gulf South Conference with 25 scoring throws and 2,601 yards. The dangerous WR trio of Gerald Ford, Seantavious Jones and Regginald Lewis all have more than 700 receiving yards, and TB Cedric O'Neal chips in with 1,058 yards on the ground. Big-play candidates on defense include Rams DE Justin Wilkerson and VSU LB Jeremy Grable.

Jeff Sagarin's power ratings show the relative strength of teams; 2.88 points were added to the home team's rating to calculate the difference.

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