Can Michigan football, or anyone in the Big Ten, close recruiting gap with Ohio State?

When the dust settled from December's early signing period this past week, there was a familiar program atop the Big Ten's recruiting rankings for the class of 2020. 

Ohio State reigned supreme yet again, inking a class that is not only significantly better than any other class in the conference but also among the nation's elite. The Buckeyes signed 24 of 25 commits from a class that currently ranks No. 3 overall, according to the 247Sports Composite rankings.

The results of the three-day December signing period come as no surprise. As the 2010s come to a close, A quick glance back at the past decade reveals that the Buckeyes experienced unprecedented success on the recruiting trail, as former coach Urban Meyer built a college football powerhouse. 

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Over the past 10 recruiting cycles (covering the 2011 class through the 2020 class), here is how Ohio State's classes have ranked nationally: sixth, fifth, second, third, seventh, fourth, second, second, 14th and third. The Buckeyes established themselves as the first Big Ten school in the modern era of college football with a consistent national foothold, landing stars from talent-rich states like Florida, Texas and California. 

For the past decade, Ohio State has been nearly unstoppable on the recruiting trail. There has been little competition from the rest of the Big Ten: the Buckeyes had the conference's top-ranked class from 2011-18.

Recruiting, of course, isn't everything. But recruits are the lifeblood of Power 5 programs, and past studies have shown a correlation between recruiting rankings and actual rankings. In football, talent usually wins out — a lesson that Michigan fans have learned all too well. 

Are there any teams in the Big Ten that can catch Ohio State in recruiting and give themselves a better chance at breaking the Big Ten's current hegemony? 

The answer is somewhat complicated.

"There’s no magic elixir out there right now that’s going to shift everything," said 247Sports recruiting analyst Steve Lorenz. "... Ohio State, they’re recruiting another big-time class this year, I suspect 2021 will be the same. Something will have to change. Maybe another coaching change, Ryan Day goes to the NFL and they finally make a wrong hire for once.

"It’d have to be something along those lines, in my opinion, for it to truly shift. I think Michigan’s best-case scenario right now is getting as close to that level as they can, but on paper, it’s going to be hard for them to produce a class that’s equal, at least from a ratings and rankings standpoint.”

Over the past decade, the Buckeyes have posted nine seasons with double-digit victories, with a combined record of 117-17 (a figure that includes the vacated victories from the 2010 season). In 2014-15, They won the national title for the 2014 season, their second of the millennium, and could very well win another this season. 

That type of consistent success, unparalleled in the Big Ten, has carried over into recruiting in a number of ways. The Buckeyes have become an NFL factory, churning out not only a high proportion of early draft picks but also players like Ezekiel Elliott, Michael Thomas and Joey Bosa, who have all become recognizable NFL stars.

Given all of this, it's not hard to see why Ohio State has had so much success recruiting over the past decade, especially as its primary rival and closest recruiting competitor – Michigan – endured two coaching changes during the same period.

The staff in place mattered, too. The Buckeyes had Meyer, considered one of the greatest recruiters in the history of the sport, and star assistants like defensive line coach Larry Johnson and former defensive backs coach Kerry Coombs. Mark Pantoni, the director of player personnel, has also been a huge part of the program's recruiting success.

Of course, the Wolverines and other teams have been hurt by their inability to consistently beat the Buckeyes (or beat them at all) on the field. But even if there were a few more victories sprinkled here and there, it's unlikely that there'd be much of a difference.

"It’s not even about one game. It’s that sustained success that they’ve had," Lorenz said. "It’d be one thing if they were trading blows and Ohio State came into Ann Arbor this year and whupped them, but Michigan was able to say, ‘It’s 6-6 the past 12 years, it’s a great rivalry, we’d like you to be on our side of it.’ But no, Ohio State can say, ‘These guys haven’t even come close. We’re 15-1 in the last 16 years. Where do you think you’d rather go?’ "

The best hope that the Big Ten has of catching Ohio State rests upon the distinct possibility that Ryan Day, Meyer's successor, will not be an all-time coach and recruiter — and if he does, that he won't stick around as long as Meyer did. And while Day has the on-field product running smoothly, perhaps even smoother than Meyer did in recent years, there are signs that suggest he's not the all-world recruiter that his predecessor was. 

At the height of his power, Meyer inked back-to-back classes that each finished No. 2 in the recruiting rankings (2017 and 2018). The average rating of a recruit in those classes was 0.9459 in 2017 and 0.9429 in 2018, according to 247Sports. Those average ratings dropped to 0.9187 in 2019 and 0.9182 in 2020. Meanwhile, the variance (a measure of spread) within each class increased in 2019 and 2020, as compared to the 2017 and 2018 classes. Why does variance matter? It all has to do with likelihood of success.

There's always a chance that Ohio State's lower-ranked prospects will develop into good players. But blue-chip prospects are ranked higher for a reason. Those near the top of their classes often have standout athleticism or other traits that have made them coveted recruits. As Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh said this week, teams don't recruit solely based off of star rankings.

But that doesn't mean those rankings don't matter.

“It means things," Harbaugh said on the "In the Trenches" podcast. "There are a lot of people that are evaluating high school football players that know what they’re doing. They’ve got a really good eye for football, as well."

And with more variance among their past two classes because of a combination of misses and taking more fliers on lower-ranked kids, the Buckeyes have opened themselves to the possibility of having a less dominating talent advantage than they have had in recent years.

Where does that leave U-M and other programs? Looking up at a marginally less uphill climb than before. And there are a few ways the Wolverines and their Big Ten peers can look to close the gap even further, too. One method could be expanding their recruiting efforts nationally, to talent-rich states like California or Florida. Already, we've seen some schools like Nebraska and Penn State, thanks to assistant coach Ja'Juan Seider, pull multiple four-star recruits from Florida. 

Still, it'll take a lot more to close the recruiting gap with Ohio State. The likeliest answer for Michigan and other Big Ten teams would be to improve their recruiting along with the Buckeyes somehow slowing down, whether that involves another coaching change or less success on the recruiting trail. 

"If you think Michigan’s climb is uphill, those (other Big Ten) programs have miles to go to get anywhere close to what Ohio State’s doing right now," Lorenz said. "And again, I think that says as much about the fact that what Ohio State’s doing right now is literally unprecedented in the Big Ten.

"That’s the other fact that fans don’t want to acknowledge. I don’t think it’s always, always going to be this way. At some point, things will move maybe a little bit back toward the mean. It’s going to take the wrong hire. It’s going to take something like that.

Follow Orion Sang on Twitter @orion_sang.