Bowl projections: Alabama falls out, Cincinnati moves in to College Football Playoff field

A lot can change in a week.

While Alabama didn't lose, its performance against LSU continued to feed the growing concerns about whether this team is likely to win a potential matchup against Georgia in the SEC title game to make the College Football Playoff.

Questions also were raised about Oregon, Cincinnati and Ohio State after uneven performances that saw their games against inferior competition in doubt until the final minutes.

Some of this shouldn't be a surprise. The gaps between the top teams this season are significantly smaller, creating an environment that is going to lend itself to unexpected results in the final four weeks. 

Which brings us to trying to sort out the playoff picture in this week's bowl projections. For all the noise about Cincinnati getting screwed by the committee, anybody can see in the past three weeks the Bearcats are off the pace. Yet, their outlook actually is improved by the showings of others. They're still unbeaten with a manageable schedule ahead.

An Alabama loss to Georgia - which previously was seen as a toss-up situation - now tilts to the Bulldogs by a solid margin. That change in forecast pushes the Crimson Tide out of the playoff field this week and opens the door for the Bearcats to step in should one other result go their way.

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One of those results is an Oregon loss, which also seems likely as the Ducks face a road test at surging Utah in two weeks and would face the Utes again in the Pac-12 title game if things go according to plan.

Even if Oregon makes it through unscathed, Cincinnati could also get in with an Oklahoma loss. For now, the Sooners are in and also benefit from an Oregon loss.

In other major changes, Michigan State and Kentucky fall out of the New Year's Six after losses; moving in are Penn State and Brigham Young.

Reminder: Notre Dame is part of the ACC bowl pool. Some conferences may not fulfill their bowl allotment. Asterisks denote a replacement pick.