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BIG TEN
College Football Playoff

Big Ten is taking a big role in this season's College Football Playoff picture

The Big Ten is a mess.

And that’s a good thing, even as the situation for some teams in the league has gotten, well, messy: Rutgers and Maryland haven't won since September, Northwestern is struggling with inexperience, Indiana has flopped against a brutal conference schedule and Nebraska keeps on being Nebraska.

The messiness at the bottom of the conference has nothing on what's happening among a logjam of College Football Playoff contenders at the top. The Big Ten is the only Power Five league with two unbeaten teams and one of two conferences, along with the SEC, with four teams with fewer than two losses. While the race in the SEC has coalesced around Georgia and Alabama, the chase for the Big Ten championship could unfold in more than a handful of ways.

As the conference heads into this choose-your-own-adventure-style home stretch, the Big Ten is set to occupy an excessive role in determining the makeup of this year's playoff. Even as the SEC stands at the center of the college football universe, the Big Ten's wealth of ranked teams and the number of possible winner-take-all games in October and November will make the league impossible to ignore.

"As you note, we have had an incredibly successful start to the 2021 season," Big Ten Commissioner Kevin Warren said in an emailed response to a series of questions from USA TODAY Sports. "We have had five different teams ranked in the top 10 of the polls at various points this season, including three teams who have claimed spots in the top five. That speaks to the depth and overall strength of the Big Ten Conference."

No. 5 Ohio State has rebounded from losing at home to Oregon in September to stand as one of the nation's hottest teams. Behind a top-ranked offense and a Heisman Trophy-level performance from freshman quarterback C.J. Stroud, the Buckeyes are the clearest answer to the question that has befuddled the FBS all season: Who can beat the Bulldogs or Crimson Tide in a playoff setting?

Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud has the Buckeyes poised for a spot in the College Football Playoff.

After a disappointing pandemic season, No. 6 Michigan is 7-0 for the first time since 2016 heading into a matchup against No. 7 Michigan State. The meeting is nearly without precedent in the rivalry's history: This is the first time the two teams will meet with both 7-0 or better and the first time since 1964 that both meet ranked inside the top 10.

Unbeaten through seven games for the first time since 2015, Michigan State is the only Power Five team and one of just two teams in the FBS to have four road wins. Under second-year coach Mel Tucker, the Spartans have seamlessly inserted more than a dozen transfers into key roles and provided a blueprint for how to manage roster turnover in the era of the transfer portal.

No. 10 Iowa stumbled earlier this month against Purdue, knocking the Hawkeyes down the rankings in the USA TODAY Sports AFCA Coaches Poll. But Iowa is still in the thick of the playoff race heading into the debut playoff rankings, which will be released on Tuesday evening, and has the easiest remaining schedule of the four teams atop the conference standings.

"There are a lot of good teams in our conference," said Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz. "It's a five-week stretch. Really that's where our focus is right now."

Another three teams are left playing the role of potential spoiler. No. 17 Penn State has dropped two straight and is now dealing with the off-field drama created by coach James Franklin's possible connection to the opening at Southern California. In the Big Ten West, Wisconsin and Minnesota have yet to face the Hawkeyes and carry matching three-game winning streaks into Saturday.

Almost every weekend through the end of November will have at least one Big Ten game pitting ranked teams with enormous playoff implications, part of the league's "emphasis on scheduling our rivalry games for later in the season," Warren said.

"Quite naturally given the history and tradition of the Big Ten Conference these games draw the national spotlight," said Warren, who took over as commissioner in 2019. "We are fortunate to have some of the most storied and accomplished football programs in all of college football, so this time of the year is very exciting for our fans."

Michigan State and Michigan will meet for the first time with both teams boasting 7-0 records or better.

Saturday's slate includes Michigan at Michigan State (noon ET, Fox) and Penn State at Ohio State (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC). Michigan goes to Penn State on Nov. 13 looking to snap a two-game losing streak in the series. On Nov. 20, Ohio State hosts Michigan State. And on Nov. 27, the final Saturday before conference championship weekend, the Wolverines will host the Buckeyes and Penn State will go to Michigan State.

"It's an elimination mindset, playoff mindset at this point," Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh said. "Win this game, and it'll help your chances."

That the Big Ten has multiple teams capable of ending the season with one or fewer losses is an important factor to weigh against the backdrop of playoff history. Not counting the pandemic-influenced and abbreviated 2020 season, 24 of 30 unbeaten or one-loss Power Five teams have reached the national semifinals of the format.

Meanwhile, the ACC has just two teams with fewer than two losses in No. 13 Wake Forest and No. 19 Pittsburgh β€” recent conference powerhouse Clemson has already lost three games and is eliminated from playoff consideration. The Big 12 continues to pin its playoff hopes on Oklahoma, which has remained unbeaten but has yet to match lofty preseason expectations. The only Pac-12 team with any shot at the top four is Oregon, which can tout that earlier win against the Buckeyes but cannot afford another misstep in conference play.

The scenarios in these three Power Five leagues have opened a door to the playoff for No. 2 Cincinnati, which would buck decades of FBS history by playing for the national championship out of a Group of Five league.

It's also created an environment where not only the SEC can hype the possibility of two teams cracking the top four. With only a slight nudge β€” Alabama losing again before December or losing to Georgia in the SEC championship game β€” the Big Ten could be the Power Five league with multiple teams under strong consideration for the semifinals.

"I just view it in terms of the Big Ten Conference and I truly believe that we have multiple teams that should be considered," Warren said. "So, yes, I think we are well positioned to place multiple teams in the top four, but it is a long season and we will have to see how things shake out in these next few weeks. I am confident that at the end of the season it will be clear where our teams should be ranked and that there will be no doubt that our teams have been appropriately prepared and tested along the way."

Follow colleges reporter Paul Myerberg on Twitter @PaulMyerberg

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