Final Whistle: Embrace chaos, even if it doesn't really change Playoff picture

Welcome, chaos. We’d been expecting you. Or at least, we should have been — because it happens every year.

On Saturday, the entire College Football Playoff picture got shaken and stirred. Pittsburgh nipped Clemson with a late field goal. Iowa did the same thing to Michigan. USC ripped Washington with a dominating performance.

And just like that we’d gone from five undefeated FBS teams to two (and only one, Alabama, among Power Five teams). That Playoff bracket that looked so simple is suddenly a lot more complicated — at least, for now. It’s Alabama and, well, um, then who?

That’s for the selection committee to decide. Whatever they come up with Tuesday should be fun. But here’s the thing about all of the chaos Saturday: It doesn’t have to be devastating for any of the three losing contenders. That was shown Sunday by the Amway Coaches and AP polls, where Michigan ranked fourth, Clemson fifth and Washington seventh.

What do Clemson, Michigan, Washington losses mean for Playoff?

If Clemson wins out — and as we saw Saturday, that “if” is the difficult part of all of this — the Tigers would finish 12-1 as ACC champions. If Washington wins out — same deal with the “if” — the Huskies would finish 12-1 as Pac-12 champs. And if Michigan wins out — again, “if” — the Wolverines would finish 12-1 as Big Ten champions.

Those records combined with those conference championships — which are especially important to the selection committee — would probably be enough to get any or probably all of them into the Playoff bracket.

If you disagree, fine — but which teams get in ahead of them at that point? One-loss teams that didn’t win their conference? A two-loss Oklahoma as Big 12 champion? A one-loss West Virginia would have a better shot — but probably neither scenario gets the Big 12 into the Playoff. Not without another round of crazy chaos.

If Saturday turns out to be the biggest upheaval, the biggest loser could eventually be a team that won Saturday by 59 points. Ohio State whipped Maryland. The Buckeyes are playing very good football.

Amway Coaches Poll stock watch: Shakeup at the top

But let’s say they win out, beating Michigan along the way. If Penn State 8-2, 6-1 Big Ten) beats bottom-dwellers Rutgers and Michigan State, the Nittany Lions would win a three-way tiebreaker in the Big Ten East and play for the Big Ten championship.

In that case, one-loss Ohio State would be in a tough spot with the selection committee. And then we’d have some serious chaos.

Of course, trying to extrapolate to the end of the season is problematic. Saturday showed us that much.

FROM BUMBLING TO FORMIDABLE

On a Friday night in late September, USC blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead to Utah, giving up the winning touchdown with 16 seconds left.

Only four games into Clay Helton’s tenure as head coach, the Trojans were 1-3. And yet he left Salt Lake City encouraged.

“I thought, ‘Wow, we’ve got something special here,’ ” Helton said.

They’d made a quarterback change, benching Max Browne for Sam Darnold, a more athletic redshirt freshman. They’d played pretty well. And Helton was convinced if they hadn’t turned a corner, they were about to.

Fast-forward to Saturday, when USC upset Washington 26-13 in Seattle and the rest of college football saw what Helton had glimpsed, and which has been quietly percolating below the radar since September. USC is playing very, very good football: six consecutive victories, and counting.

USC upsets No. 4 Washington to damage Playoff profile

“That was fun,” Helton told USA TODAY Sports on Sunday. “The kids are playing good ball right now. We’ve come a long way since September.”

Oh yeah, September. It started with a 52-6 loss to Alabama in which the Trojans looked overwhelmed and unprepared and continued with a loss to Stanford and then finally to Utah. The whispers about Helton’s future were already turning into something more.

“You know the job,” Helton said. “You know as a head coach of USC the expectations that come with the job. If you don’t want to accept them, don’t take the job. That’s what it is. It’s about winning championships here and playing at the highest level. If you’re not playing at the highest level, there’s gonna be noise.”

USC isn’t likely to win a championship this season, but Saturday on a very big stage the Trojans played at a high level. Darnold threw for 287 yards and two touchdowns, and his ability to create on the run was a constant problem for a good Washington defense. On the other side of the ball, Washington entered the day averaging 231 rushing yards, but managed only 17. Jake Browning was a chic Heisman candidate, but struggled and was picked off twice by USC defensive back Adoree’ Jackson. USC looked very much like the Pac-12’s most talented team.

The Trojans aren’t going to the Playoff. Even if they beat UCLA to finish the Pac-12 schedule 7-2, they’ll need help to have a shot at a conference title; Colorado and Utah would need to lose once more to give USC the Pac-12 South crown.

Played in/Played out: 3 of the top 4 fall but are still in Playoff hunt

But what happened Saturday — what’s happened since September, really — is an illustration of why early conclusions shouldn’t be set in stone. Teams evolve over the course of a season. Players develop. New coaching staffs settle in. That horrible loss to Alabama? In retrospect, it was an important moment.

“I knew we had the talent around us,” Helton said. “I was disappointed because we didn’t perform like we’d prepared. We weren’t ready for that game but it was a great experience for us. There were some valuable lessons. When you have that type of butt-kicking and that type of atmosphere, some really valuable lessons came out of it and helped (against Washington).

“That game (against Alabama) feels like two years ago. Our maturity level has grown a ton.”

Told that at least for now, USC is — and yeah, this is hard to fathom — something of a feel-good story, Helton chuckled.

“Hopefully we can get back to where everybody has a target on us,” he said.

PULLING THE REDSHIRT

In the end, Hugh Freeze said, the decision wasn’t difficult. It has been a long, hard season for Ole Miss: injuries, suspensions and all of those losses. It didn’t figure to get any better when quarterback Chad Kelly suffered a season-ending knee injury. But Freeze said he didn’t hesitate to pull the redshirt off true freshman quarterback Shea Patterson.

It paid off in a big way Saturday, when Patterson led the Rebels to a comeback victory at Texas A&M. The former five-star recruit threw for 338 yards and ran for 64 more. Freeze said it was clear during preseason practices Patterson was ready to help, but until Kelly went down last week, the plan was for his debut to wait until next season. Patterson had been running the scout team.

“Chad was the guy,” Freeze told USA TODAY Sports. “There was no sense in burning Shea’s redshirt. But circumstances changed. I was gonna take criticism either way, but it was a pretty easy decision once you found the kid wanted to (play) and his parents were good with it.”

Trailing by nine in the fourth quarter, the Rebels rallied. Patterson, who has an elite arm but is more mobile than either Kelly or Bo Wallace, led four second-half scoring drives. His performance included a 32-yard touchdown pass to Van Jefferson with 5:17 left to cut the deficit to 28-26. Gary Wunderlich hit the winning, 39-yard field goal with 37 seconds left.

Shea Patterson rallies Ole Miss past No. 11 Texas A&M

Credit the Rebels, too, for not packing it in when the season went sideways. They entered Saturday 4-5, on the short end of discouraging losses and after plenty of debilitating injuries — and yeah, with that “NCAA cloud,” as Freeze put it, looming. Freeze said the Rebels have learned plenty from the adversity they’ve endured this season. The coach, who is outspoken about his Christian faith, said God had “taught (him) a lot about surrender,” and that he had come to accept whatever results followed.

“I’m really happy for the kids and the coaches,” Freeze said, adding: “This day and time, kids can so easily shut down with all the stuff they have to hear. They could easily say, ‘You know what, man, it’s a lot of work, I don’t (want to do it)’ — but they haven’t. … So yes, it was very sweet to see them continue to fight and battle. We can build on it.”

And with Patterson, it’s clear the Rebels have something to build on. Ole Miss is playing several freshmen in key positions – including at both offensive tackles. On Saturday, led by another freshman, they made some of the same kinds of mistakes they’ve made all season. But they also provided evidence brighter days could be ahead.

THREE TO WATCH

Louisville at Houston (8 p.m. Thursday, ESPN): Houston’s lofty dreams of the Playoff have cratered, but Louisville’s have not. The Cardinals need help, but they’re in the mix.

Oklahoma at West Virginia (8 p.m. Saturday, ABC): The Big 12 has fallen off the Playoff radar, but it only takes a little more chaos for either Oklahoma or West Virginia to move into the picture. The winner has the inside track to the conference title, and maybe more.

Washington State at Colorado (3:30 p.m. Saturday, Fox): The surprise leaders of the Pac-12’s North and South divisions meet with plenty on the line.

Bonus: Florida at LSU (1 p.m. Saturday, SEC Network): Florida is trying to win the SEC East. LSU is trying to win enough to remove the “interim” from Ed Orgeron’s title. And then there’s the subplot of the tension and bad feelings between the schools during negotiations over the postponement because of Hurricane Matthew.

Snap judgments from college football's Week 11

QUOTABLE

“There were two handfuls of guys, a couple dozen guys sitting on the benches in the shade, while we were playing, like they were sitting in a cabana. … And in a game where everything is on the line we’ve got guys with no energy and think they need to sit down and watch the game on the jumbotron. Well, they can go into the locker room if they want to sit down.” — Hawaii coach Nick Rolovich on why he had the team’s benches removed during a 52-16 loss to Boise State.

QUICK KICKS

►After Stanford’s 52-27 victory over Oregon, prominent booster Pat Kilkenny — a former Oregon athletic director — asked columnist John Canzano for a spot Monday on Canzano’s daily radio show. It’s likely Kilkenny won’t address the future of Ducks coach Mark Helfrich, but instead wants to quash a report last week that Nike founder Phil Knight is willing to pay $10 million to lure the next head coach.

► A 45-24 loss to Oklahoma wasn’t the biggest loss for Baylor on Saturday. It was the Bears’ third consecutive, and that 6-0 start to the season seems long ago and far away. But the more devastating blow was a fractured ankle suffered by senior quarterback Seth Russell.

Russell, who had returned from surgery to repair a broken neck, was one of the better stories in college football. He waited three years to become Baylor’s quarterback. He was playing extremely well last season — as well as any quarterback in the country — when he was injured. Russell wasn’t playing at quite that level in his return, but he was playing well. And then Saturday, he was hurt on the end of a run. His left ankle was twisted grotesquely enough that ESPN showed only one replay.

Baylor announced Sunday that Russell would have surgery to repair the fracture.

His injury led to one nice moment Saturday, when Oklahoma players lined up to offer consolation to Russell and the crowd in Norman gave him a standing ovation as the cart left the field.

► Washington State’s 56-21 victory against California was the Cougars’ eighth consecutive win after an 0-2 start. That’s the program’s longest winning streak since 1930. Washington State is 7-0 in conference play for the first time.

HIGHLIGHTS FROM WEEK 11