Who's making the NFL playoffs ... and who might
- Margin for error remains razor thin in NFL
- AFC playoff picture appears to be solidifying
- In the NFC, objects in rear view mirror may be closer than they appear
To be perfect in the NFL, a team needs to be nearly perfect.
Matt Ryan's final two passes in Sunday's game against the New Orleans Saints were not perfect. They needed to be a little more in front of his intended receivers. They were not. And they were batted away.
Just like that, the Atlanta Falcons are no longer perfect, and the 1972 Miami Dolphins' record survives for another season.
For the NFL, which thrives on parity, the setup in the NFC is, well, perfect. The Falcons' hopes of running away with the No. 1 seed have been put on hold.
Meanwhile, the Saints' victory wound things tighter in a conference featuring 13 of 16 teams with legitimate shots at playoff berths.
Over in the AFC, it's wide open, but only in the sense of which teams are going to grab which seeds. Up top, the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens would have the byes if the playoffs began now, though the Texans have a tough schedule and the Ravens must prove they can overcome a few key defensive losses.
Expect some of this uncertainty to shake out over Thanksgiving.
But for now, enjoy the fact there's only one game (Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Redskins) on the Week 11 schedule between teams we assume will be home watching the playoffs .
IN
We've seen far too many crazy things happen in this league to say a playoff race is over after Week 10 ... but it's pretty much over in the AFC.
Assuming the Pittsburgh Steelers take care of the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday night, there will be a two-game spread between them and the San Diego Chargers and Miami Dolphins. As of now, it seems to be only a matter of how the top six seeds will shake out.
In the NFC meanwhile, those teams trying to crack the top six are actually improving. The Seattle Seahawks won't go away, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are gaining confidence, and the New Orleans Saints are somehow still alive. It should be an interesting stretch run in the NFC.
Here's a look at where it all stands :
AFC
Houston Texans (8-1)
As complete a team as there is out there. But they've got themselves a testy schedule coming up, so it's not like they'll be gliding to a bye.
Baltimore Ravens (7-2)
Admit it. You gave up on them after Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb got hurt. But Sunday's 55-10 thumping of the Raiders showed they're still pretty formidable.
New England Patriots (6-3)
They'll be tested over the next month or so – vs. Colts, Texans and 49ers. Sunday's 37-31 win over the Bills was a good way to head into that stretch.
Denver Broncos (6-3)
Their biggest problem early was a bunch of slow starts. Now that they have that figured out, they're winning. And winning rather easily. Routed the Panthers 36-14 Sunday.
Indianapolis Colts (6-3)
They have yet to buckle under the adversity of losing coach Chuck Pagano while he battles leukemia. Each solid performance by QB Andrew Luck is building confidence .
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)
A bruising running game and a physical defense. Sound familiar? The Steelers are back .
NFC
Atlanta Falcons (8-1)
Nobody outside of Roddy White thought they had a shot to go 16-0. Despite a 31-27 loss to the Saints, the Falcons are still a good team with a very good shot at a bye or home field.
Chicago Bears (7-2)
With a defense like they have in an offensive league like this one, they're as much of a contender as anyone. And they still have the Falcons and the No. 1 seed in their sights.
San Francisco 49ers (6-2-1)
If that offense could get it going and keep it going, they'd be at the top of this list. But they're inconsistent and now they must deal with a possible concussion for QB Alex Smith.
New York Giants (6-4)
They vowed there would be no November hiccup this year. Sunday's embarrassing loss to the Cincinnati Bengals showed they were wrong about that.
Green Bay Packers (6-3)
Provided their injury issues are minor, they'll come out of the bye and battle the Bears for the NFC North crown .
Seattle Seahawks (6-4)
They took care of the New York Jets at home. They're refusing to face out of this race.
ON THE BUBBLE
AFC
San Diego Chargers (4-5)
Sunday: Philip Rivers tried to force a throw on a third-and-4 from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' 23-yard line. It was a pick six, turning a potential tie game into an eventual 34-24 Bucs victory.
Next game: At the Denver Broncos, Sunday. Their meltdown on a Monday night against Denver sparked this 1-3 slide. Maybe the rematch can end it.
They make the playoffs if … They somehow find a way to start believing in Norv Turner again.
They miss the playoffs if … They realize Turner is as good as gone and a lot of other jobs also are on the line.
Miami Dolphins (4-5)
Sunday: The 37-3 loss to the Tennessee Titans was more along the lines of what people expected from the Dolphins. Kudos to them for at least putting it off this long.
Next game: At the Buffalo Bills, Thursday. Not exactly a ratings-grabber.
They make the playoffs if … Joe Philbin stops benching his best offensive player (Reggie Bush) after one fumble.
They miss the playoffs if … They have to rely on quarterback Ryan Tannehill to throw more than 30 passes a game, as he's done in all of his games except two.
Cincinnati Bengals (4-5)
Sunday: That was a 31-13 beatdown of the defending champs. The New York Giants thought they were ready to play. The Bengals made it seem like the Giants forgot it was a 1 p.m. kickoff.
Next game: At Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday. That's followed by the Oakland Raiders at home and then at San Diego. Sounds like a possible winning streak.
They make the playoffs if … They take care of business in those three games.
They miss the playoffs if … They can't remember how to play defense the way they did Sunday against Eli Manning.
Titans (4-6)
Sunday: After two home losses, including a blowout to the Chicago Bears last week, they went on the road and smashed the Dolphins. Maybe owner Bud Adams' threats had something to do with this.
Next game: At Jacksonville Jaguars, Nov. 25. Following a bye, they get the next-best thing to a bye, and that's playing the Jags.
They make the playoffs if … They beat the Houston Texans and Green Bay Packers. Seriously, they need to steal a couple of games to make a legit run.
They miss the playoffs if … They play against those top teams the way they did in blowout losses to the Bears, New England Patriots and Texans the first time around.
NFC
Minnesota Vikings (6-4)
Sunday: That was a huge victory against the Detroit Lions, who were surging as the Vikings began to slide a bit. It was a must-win, considering their remaining schedule.
Next game: At Bears, Nov. 25. They have two games left against the Bears and Packers, as well as a meeting with the Texans. That's a tough uphill climb to the postseason.
They make the playoffs if … They go 3-2 in those five games and beat the St. Louis Rams. A tall order.
They miss the playoffs if … They're sub-.500 in those five games and/or lose to the Rams.
Buccaneers (5-4)
Sunday: Once again, Greg Schiano's crew put up enough points on offense and generated enough turnovers on defense to get it done in a victory against the Chargers.
Next game: At Carolina Panthers, Sunday. It's the third road game in four weeks. We'll see if the Bucs are road weary.
They make the playoffs if … Josh Freeman continues to play smart football. He hasn't thrown an interception in his last four games. After throwing 22 last season, he has five in 2012.
They miss the playoffs if … They don't fix that pass defense. They're last in the league and gave up big chunks of yardage Sunday, including an 80-yard touchdown on a quick slant to Danario Alexander.
Dallas Cowboys (4-5)
Sunday: They knocked Michael Vick out the game and proved the Philadelphia Eagles aren't better with Nick Foles, after all. It was known going in that the loser of the game would be done while the winner would get a jolt.
Next game: Against the Cleveland Browns, Sunday. The first of three consecutive home games against losing teams. A 7-5 record is doable.
They make the playoffs if … They cash in on their opportunities on offense the way they did Sunday. Previously, there had been too many yards to too few points.
They miss the playoffs if … They don't get DeMarco Murray back healthy.
New Orleans Saints (4-5)
Sunday: Who dat sayin' dat da Saints ain't goin' away. They ended the Atlanta Falcons' unbeaten season on a day news broke this bounty thing might not be resolved this season, meaning Jonathan Vilma and Will Smith will continue to play.
Next game: At Raiders, Sunday. Gotta have it, especially with the San Francisco 49ers and Falcons on deck after that.
They make the playoffs if … Jimmy Graham keeps up the production and stays healthy. He has 15 catches for 216 yards in his last two games combined.
They miss the playoffs if … Steve Spagnuolo's defense takes a step backward. They're playing with speed and confidence, which is essential for running that scheme.