Even after appeal, will any team risk signing Ray Rice?
Before he was the face of domestic violence in America, Ray Rice was a running back with over 1,400 NFL carries on his 5-foot-8 frame, showing signs of decline in his sixth season at a position where even the best can fall off quickly.
He averaged career lows of 3.1 yards on 214 rushes and 5.5 yards on 58 catches in 2013, yielding speculation from Baltimore Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti about cutting ties if his play didn't improve — and that was before Rice was caught on video punching his then-fiancée in the face.
The question for any team even thinking about signing Rice, whose appeal of his indefinite suspension from the NFL wrapped up Thursday in New York, isn't just how it would handle the inevitable avalanche of backlash from fans and sponsors. The team also must ask: Would Rice be worth it?
"I don't think anybody's going to worry about that now," one NFL personnel director told USA TODAY Sports. "I think he's played his last game."
A handful of NFL general managers and other personnel men — all speaking on condition of anonymity for competitive reasons and because of the sensitivity of the situation — were less definitive about Rice's chances for getting another opportunity. All it takes is one team.
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"I learned a long time ago to never say never in personnel," one GM said. "So who knows?"
Former U.S. district judge Barbara S. Jones, who heard Rice's appeal, will decide whether the NFL violated Rice's rights under the collective bargaining agreement and subjected him to double jeopardy by increasing his original two-game suspension to an indefinite ban based on the same set of facts. The league says the video was new evidence.
A victory for Rice would be a victory for all players as the NFL works on changes to its personal conduct policy that could take authority on discipline out of Commissioner Roger Goodell's hands. But it wouldn't necessarily give Rice what he wants: An opportunity to resume his career.
"He'll get another chance — but maybe not right away," a longtime NFL scout said. "He had declining production last year. But I believe (he) still has something left."
A strong head coach and GM for a team that's winning will give Rice that chance, the scout predicted, since losing regimes are just trying to survive and wouldn't want the blowback.
But what kind of player would they be risking their reputations to bring in? The three-time Pro Bowl pick who got a $15 million signing bonus from the Ravens on a contract extension in July 2012? Or the shell of that player who struggled badly while dealing with a hip injury in 2013?
Another NFL personnel man said he grades Rice as a solid to above-average starter at a position some consider replaceable and signing him would require support from ownership down.
In a January interview with the Baltimore Sun — more than a month before Rice knocked out his then-fiancée in an Atlantic City casino elevator — Bisciotti admitted his concern about Rice's weight gain and dip in productivity and that questions had come up about whether Rice was through.
"I think he learned that adding 10 pounds to his frame made him less elusive, not more powerful," Bisciotti told the Sun. "I think he'll come back with a vengeance, down to 210 (pounds). And if he doesn't, then we'll be making a tough decision next year, probably."
The decision came barely eight months later, hours after video surfaced Sept. 8 of the punch. The Ravens cut Rice and the NFL increased his punishment, setting up the showdown in Jones' office the past two days. There is no firm timetable for her to issue a decision.
A second GM said he thought it would be unlikely Rice is signed this year regardless.
Under most circumstances, a one-year, non-guaranteed, prorated minimum contract would be a low-risk proposition on a veteran free agent who's been as productive as Rice in the past. But most acquisitions don't guarantee protests and potential alienation of (at least) half the fan base.
One year ago this week, the Miami Dolphins suspended veteran guard Richie Incognito, the ringleader in a pattern of alleged harassment that caused another player to leave the team. Incognito remains unsigned, and he was better at his job last season than Rice was at his.
Said the personnel director: If Richie Incognito can't get a job, there's no way Ray Rice can.
Signing Rice comes down to risk and reward. The former is Rice's primary hurdle to get back into the league, but the diminished prospect of the latter sure won't help.
Follow Tom Pelissero on Twitter @TomPelissero. Contributing: Jim Corbett.