Week 13 hot reads: Packers in Super Bowl driver's seat?
Seven snap reactions from the 13th Sunday of the NFL season:
— The NFL could do worse than a Packers-Patriots rematch in Super Bowl XLIX, if the drama of Green Bay's 26-21 triumph is any indication. Even out the Packers' uncommon offensive failings in the red zone, though — none worse than rookie WR Davante Adams' brutal drop in the fourth quarter that kept the door open — and they might have run away with this one. The Packers' 13 plays inside the 20-yard line netted minus-1 yard total and they were 0-for-4 on third down, settling for four field goals. Their other 57 plays netted 479 yards, including seven QB Aaron Rodgers completions of 24 yards or more, and they converted 10 of 13 third downs. The Green Bay defense held up its end, too, keeping the Patriots to 320 net yards — about 116 fewer than they'd been averaging during a seven-game win streak in which they'd been scoring nearly 40 points a game. The venue surely helped, since the Packers have been as dominant at home as any team in the NFL. Had Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski hung on in the end zone late, New England might have escaped with a win anyway. But as long as Rodgers is upright, it's hard to argue with the Packers right at the top of list of frontrunners to win the whole thing.
— Browns QB Brian Hoyer shouldn't have been shocked he got the hook in favor of rookie Johnny Manziel late in Sunday's 26-10 loss to the Bills. In 35 possessions over three games since Cleveland's upset of the Bengals on Nov. 6, Hoyer had twice as many turnovers (six) as the Browns had touchdowns (three). It was 20-3 Bills when Manziel entered with 12:01 to go Sunday and promptly directed an eight-play, 80-yard scoring drive. So now coach Mike Pettine and whoever else has a voice in the decision are back to where they were in August — though the context has changed considerably. The Browns are 7-5 and in the mix for their first playoff berth since 2002. They can't worry about who's earned the right to be the guy or sending the right message to a young QB. They need to win, with their next two at home against division leaders Indianapolis and Cincinnati, and whoever gives them the best chance to do it should get the nod.
— The Cardinals' NFC West lead has shrunk from three games to one in a matter of eight days — and it's safe to re-install the surging Seahawks as the favorites. As well as the Cardinals have replaced parts all season, the loss of QB Carson Palmer may prove to be their undoing. Backup QB Drew Stanton appeared overmatched again and threw two interceptions Sunday in a 29-18 loss to the Falcons, whose defense entered the week ranked dead last in total yards and passing yards. Coach Bruce Arians' offense faces tougher matchups the rest of the way, with the Chiefs, Rams (on a short week in St. Louis), Seahawks and 49ers (at San Francisco) to go. Ten wins might not get somebody into the playoffs in the NFC. The Cardinals have their work cut out to split their last four.
— Hey, remember when the Panthers were 2-0? They probably don't either, after their latest three-phase failure yielded a 31-13 loss at Minnesota. The defending NFC South champs have managed to fall out of the race in football's worst division with six straight losses and a 1-8-1 record since those two early wins. There are a lot of reasons it happened — QB Cam Newton's injuries, DE Greg Hardy's placement on the exempt list, some bad bets in roster retooling, injuries along the offensive line — but it's still hard to believe a team that broke through with 12 wins in 2013 is struggling to win four a year later. First big decision in the offseason: How much to invest in Newton, who's due $14.666 million on his fifth-year option in 2015 and will be coming off arguably his worst season, even if it's not all his fault.
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— Crazy Historical Stat of the Day Part 1: The Colts became the first team in almost a half-century to score six touchdowns of 30 yards or more in a 49-27 rout of the Redskins, who scored seven such TDs on Nov. 27, 1966, against the Giants. At 8-4, the Colts might have the AFC South put away if not for Crazy Historical Stat of the Day Part 2: The Texans improved to 6-6 with a 45-21 win over the Titans in which DE J.J. Watt caught a 1-yard TD pass, becoming the first player with at least three offensive touchdowns and two or more touchdowns on takeaways in a season since Joe Golding did it with the Boston Yanks in 1948. Watt also had two sacks, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery to keep up his dark-horse MVP push.
— Worth remembering when sizing up the Bengals' 1½-game lead in the AFC North: They still haven't played the Steelers, who visit Cincinnati for the first of two matchups in 22 days Sunday. Granted, Pittsburgh hasn't performed like a playoff team the past three games — losing to the lousy Jets, slipping past the Titans the next week and then coming out of a bye with a 35-32 defeat at home Sunday against the desperate Saints. But the Steelers offense has shown explosive ability, and the Bengals don't exactly seem equipped to win shootouts with the way QB Andy Dalton has been stumbling. (He threw three more interceptions while battling illness in Sunday's 14-13 win over the Bucs.) The Ravens — who blew a 10-point lead late in Sunday's 34-33 home loss to the Chargers — already had their two shots at the Bengals and lost both. The Browns get their chance for a sweep of the Bengals on Dec. 22 in Cleveland. Only the Steelers can take the division just by winning out, with a visit to Atlanta and a home game against the Chiefs also remaining. The Bengals' other game: a Monday night matchup with the Broncos on Dec. 22.
— The Chiefs have won 18 games since Andy Reid became coach in 2013 — and none against the Broncos, who beat them again in primetime 29-16 at Arrowhead Stadium. It wasn't enough that Denver suited up without TE Julius Thomas, RBs Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball and CB Aqib Talib. The Kansas City defense — depleted since Week 1 by injuries to LB Derrick Johnson and DE Mike DeVito, and now without ailing Pro Bowl S Eric Berry as well — limited QB Peyton Manning's big plays in the passing game but gave up 214 rushing yards on 45 carries. The offense lacks perimeter weapons to exploit the absence of an elite cover man like Talib, committed three turnovers and had no answer for the Broncos' pass rush, which sacked QB Alex Smith six times. At 7-5, the Chiefs are still in the thick of the AFC wild-card chase. They've beaten the Patriots, Chargers and Seahawks, among others. But they've yet to get over the hump of their main rivals, and Reid's fourth try wasn't all that close.
Follow Tom Pelissero on Twitter @TomPelissero.
GALLERY: BEST OF WEEK 13 AROUND THE NFL
